Thursday, January 3, 2008

Forecast Still Calls for Cold Weather

We're still a long way out from the Houston Marathon and the long range weather forecast really isn't much more than a wild guess, but I enjoy tracking the forecast. In the next few days, we'll have a little better idea of what to expect.

The 16 day model forecast still has temperature in the 30s and a strong North wind, but now includes a chance of snow flurries [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I know of some swampland in Matagorda County....

AccuWeather now has Saturday night now on their 6 to 10 day forecast and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 29 °F RealFeel®: 19 °F
Mainly clear and cold

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 52 °F RealFeel®: 51 °F

For the record, here's the climate data around Houston Marathon day:
Jan 11 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1995; Record Low Max 30 1962; Record Low 12 1982; Record Hi Min 69 1995; Record Precip 1.77 1934
Jan 12 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 2000; Record Low Max 37 1985; Record Low 17 1962; Record Hi Min 68 2007; Record Precip 1.93 1944
Jan 13 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1935; Record Low Max 32 1996; Record Low 20 1973; Record Hi Min 68 1965; Record Precip 1.53 1967
Jan 14 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 82 1971; Record Low Max 42 1964; Record Low 19 1982; Record Hi Min 63 1965; Record Precip 0.90 1946
Jan 15 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 79 1996; Record Low Max 42 1984; Record Low 23 1979; Record Hi Min 61 1968; Record Precip 1.78 1974
The record high minimum temperatures are the ones that worry me. I hope we don't see anything close to those warm minimums.

Just a recovery run before work today. It was the coldest run of the season, 36 degrees at 4AM. Here's my favorite route when it's dark, out to the Dow "Nature Reserve" 4 3/4 miles with an extra mile loop around the nighborhood [SB/Dow]:

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Why does Rice play Texas?

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