Sunday, January 18, 2009

It's Over

This pretty much tells the whole story.


Time: 02:58:00.500 Pace: 06:48 min/mi
Ranks: Overall: 94
Male: 85
M45-49: 8
Last Chip Read: 18-Jan 09:56:39
Checkpoint Course Split
6.2 miles 00:40:23.000 06:30 00:40:23.000 06:30
13.1 mile 01:25:33.000 06:32 00:45:10.000 06:34
18.6 miles 02:03:39.500 06:38 00:38:06.500 06:53
Finish 02:58:00.500 06:48 00:54:21.000 07:11




Cowboy WilmerB ran an incredible race for first in the Masters:

Time: 02:32:29.000 Pace: 05:49 min/mi
Ranks: Overall: 19
Male: 15
Male Elite: 13
M40-44: 1
Last Chip Read: 18-Jan 09:31:05
Checkpoint Course Split
6.2 miles 00:35:20.000 05:41 00:35:20.000 05:41
13.1 mile 01:14:49.500 05:43 00:39:29.500 05:44
18.6 miles 01:46:58.000 05:44 00:32:08.500 05:48
Finish 02:32:29.000 05:49 00:45:31.000 06:01

For the record, Hobby Airport had:
10:53 N 9 Partly Cloudy 67 dewpoint 36
09:53 N 9 Partly Cloudy 63 dewpoint 40
08:53 N 9 A Few Clouds 60 depoint 48
07:53 W 5 Fair 57 dewpoint 53
06:53 NW10G18 Partly Cloudy 59 dewpoint 53

Yes, I'm that bald.
video



Picture from KTRK

You gotta love WillL! He was the guru of running in Brazosport (and used to live just down the street from me) before going off to create Team Nebraska.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Unpleasant Houston Marathon Weather Forecast

This post is from 2009.








01-25-11 Edit





Click here for 2011 Houston Marathon weather updates.

























The wraparound Gulf flow came in strong this morning. It's nearly 60ºF here at 8AM. And it appears the weak cold front won't arrive until later Sunday morning. I really don't like the warmer temperatures. It's so frustrating to be faced with this after so many nearly perfect days recently.

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has their short range forecast available on the KUHF site
Tonight: Cloudy with a chance of showers.
Overnight Low: 57
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers before noon, then becoming mostly sunny to party cloudy.
High: 71

Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west.
Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers before 9am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 69. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Here's the NWS hourly graphical forecast.
The forecasters discussion says:
THOSE INVOLVED IN THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES STARTING AROUND SUNRISE IN THE HOUSTON AREA ON SUNDAY CAN EXPECT CLDY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND SCT SHRA IN THE AREA. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA BY 9 AM. FRONT ITSELF AND CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.


The 84 hour model now includes marathon morning. This model hasn't changed much, with temperature in the upper 50s and a warmup but the dry-out is now very late in the race and northwest winds around 10mph [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. Here's the text version of the models for Hobby Airport.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their predictions with seasonal averages. For Sunday morning they show:
7am 56°F, Mostly Cloudy, feels like 55°F, precip 10%, relative humidity 93%, Wind From NNW 5 mph

Sunrise 7:17 am

8am 57°F, Partly Cloudy, feels like 56°F, precip 10%, relative humidity 90%, Wind From WNW 6 mph

9am 58°F, Partly Cloudy, feels like 57°F, precip 10%, relative humidity 83%, Wind From NW 7 mph

10am 60°F, Partly Cloudy, feels like 59°F, precip 10%, relative humidity 72%, Wind From NW 8 mph

11am 63°F, Sunny, feels like 63°F, precip 0%, relative humidity 60%, Wind From NW 9 mph


AccuWeather is the last holdout with cool temperatures Sunday morning. They predict:
7am 51° F Cloudy
8am 53° F Mostly Cloudy
9am 56° F Rain
10am 59° F Mostly Cloudy
11am 61° F Mostly Cloudy

And their dewpoints are all below 49° F!

Friday, January 16, 2009

It's All Over But the Running...

The only thing left to do is run the thing.

The finish line.


Street before the finish line


Ice skating at Discovery Green



Do you think our bibs are big enough?

These are my new green Saucony Tangent-3s. My previous shoes had almost 900 miles on them. These shoes feel great except for one spot near my the edge of my right foot. I noticed I've worn a hole in my previous shoes at the same spot.

Another Houston Marathon Weather Forecast Update

This post is from 2009.








01-25-11 Edit





Click here for 2011 Houston Marathon weather updates.

























The keys to the forecasts remain the extent of the wraparound Gulf flow expected tomorrow and the arrival of a weak coldfront Saturday night or Sunday morning. I think there's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast, but I really don't like the warmer temperatures. I'm off to the Expo today!

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then gradual clearing during the afternoon and evening.
Wind NW-N 10-17 gust 25
Precip 40% chance of rain.
Temp Low: 56ºF High: 67ºF

This forecast is for the power plant, so I'm hoping those higher temperatures and strong winds will be localized to the coastal areas. Their short range forecast is available on the KUHF site with a much better low temperature of 52ºF predicted for Houston.

Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west.
Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.
This is quite a bit warmer than yesterday's forecast.

Here's the NWS hourly graphical forecast.
The forecasters discussion says:
HIGH PRES SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT TO ALLOW A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. 0Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING MORE QPF COVERAGE (ALBEIT LIGHT) ALONG & AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.


The 84 hour model now includes marathon morning. This model hasn't changed much, with temperature in the upper 50s and a warmup and slighter dry-out through the race [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. Here's the text version of the models for Hobby Airport.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Sunday morning they show:
7am 53°F, Cloudy, feels like 53°F, precip 10%, relative humidity 93%, Wind From NNW
3 mph
8am 54°F, Cloudy, feels like 53°F, precip 10%, relative humidity 90%, Wind From NNW
4 mph

For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 73%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 17
Low: 50 °F RealFeel®: 47 °F
Mostly cloudy with a bit of rain


Sunday, Jan 18

High: 64 °F RealFeel®: 64 °F
A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, clouds giving way to some sun

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Tracking the Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

Last night was my traditional two miles on the track at Goal Marathon Pace. The run went well but that pace does seem fast. The key to the forecasts is arrival of a weak coldfront Saturday night or Sunday morning. Even though we're only three days away from the marathon, I'm not very condfident in the forecasts. We were supposed to have a strong cold front come through early this morning but it's nearly 70ºF right now in Matagorda County. The forecasts are trending warmer.

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then becoming partly cloudy by late afternon
Wind NW-N 10-17 gust 25
Precip 30% chance of rain
Temp
Low: 53ºF
High: 64ºF
This was the first source that predicted winds this strong for Sunday. The forecast is for the nuke plant out in Matagorda County where the winds are usually stronger. This weather service's forecasts are the most reliable I've found for this area.

Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Here's the NWS hourly graphical forecast.
The forecasters discussion says:
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF OF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.


The 84 hour model now includes marathon morning. This model has changed to the warmer direction, with temperature in the upper 50s and a warmup and dry-out through the race [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. Here's the text version of the 7.5-day model.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 52°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 80%


For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 62%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 17
Low: 48 °F RealFeel®: 44 °F
Mostly cloudy with a bit of rain

Sunday, Jan 18
High: 64 °F RealFeel®: 62 °F
A shower possible in the morning; otherwise, clouds breaking for some sun

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Weather Obsession

I'm not too obsessed; I slept through the alarm for this morning's run. The forecasts now are a little warmer and windier with less chance of rain.

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a chance of showers early Sunday, then decreasing clouds
Wind NW-N 12-17 gust 22
Precip 30% chance of rain early Sunday
Temp
Low: 47ºF
High: 64ºF
This was the first source that predicted winds this strong for Sunday. The forecast is for the nuke plant out in Matagorda County where the winds are usually stronger. This weather service's forecasts are the most reliable I've found for this area.

Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Here's the NWS hourly graphical forecast.
THe forecasters discussion says:
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING ACROSS SE TX EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE LEAST...ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE NE ZONES SUN NIGHT.


The 7.5-day model now includes marathon morning. This model has changed to the cooler direction, with temperature and dewpoints in the low 50s [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. Here's the text version of the 7.5-day model.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 48°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 83%


For Sunday they show:
High 64°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 73%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 17
Low: 46 °F RealFeel®: 38 °F
Plenty of clouds and breezy

Sunday, Jan 18
High: 62 °F RealFeel®: 59 °F
Cloudy, chance of a little rain

Monday, January 12, 2009

Week 17

40½ miles for the week (January 5th to 11th)
One more week until the Houston Marathon

M – 0, picked up a bad cold over the weekend and felt horrible, 49°F at 4AM
Tu – 0, still felt pretty bad, 47°F at 4AM
W - 6¼ miles with 3x1M/400, average pace 7:03 mpm with mile repeats at 6:02, 5:57, and 5:56, 60°F at 7PM
Th - 5¼ miles recovery run, average pace 8:28 mpm, some ground fog 56°F at 4AM
F - 9 miles general aerobic, average pace 6:51 mpm, 74°F from 10AM sunny, humid, and windy
Sa – 7 miles recovery run, average pace 8:47 mpm, 55°F after 5PM and windy
Su – 13 miles, average pace 6:54 mpm, a nice and cool 50°F starting at 10:30AM

I was pretty sick early in the week. I’m not sure how much it hurt me Wednesday. I was pleased that I felt better on the third mile than on the first, but they were all about ten seconds slower than the same workout last year. Friday was a good, fast run in fairly difficult conditions and Sunday’s run also went well. Despite the illness this ended up a promising week.

I haven’t completed the same training volume as previous years, but I’ve completed several difficult workouts with comparable results. I’m not sure what pace I’ll try to run. Of course weather is always a limiting factor. But even given perfect weather, I might try starting slower. I ran near 6:28 pace for about the first 17 miles last year. I’m scared of that pace right now. I think my best strategy would be to start out near 6:35 pace. That would give me a serious shot at a new PR while lessening the risk of a total breakdown.

But I would really like to break 2:50 before I get too old.



I've been able to resist obsessing over the weather up to now!

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers
Wind Variable 5-10 shifting to N 10-15 gust 20 Sunday
Precip 30% chance of rain
Temp
Low: 44ºF
High: 63ºF
This is the only source I've seen that predicts winds this strong for Sunday. The forecast is for the nuke plant out in Matagorda County where the winds are usually stronger. This weather service's forecasts are the most reliable I've found for this area.

Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.
Here's the NWS hourly graphical forecast.



The 7.5-day model now includes marathon morning. Conditions don't look as good here, with temperature near 60 and dewpoints in the 50s [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The NWS forecast discussion indicates there's quite a bit of uncertainty from Thursday on. Here's the text version of the 7.5-day model.



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 45°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 85%


For Sunday they show:
High 65°F
Precip 40%
Wind: WNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 73%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 17
Low: 46 °F RealFeel®: 42 °F
Cloudy with a couple of showers possible

Sunday, Jan 18
High: 62 °F RealFeel®: 60 °F
Periods of rain and a thunderstorm

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Week 16

71¼ miles for the week (December 29th to January 4th)
Just two more weeks until the Houston Marathon

M AM – 5¾ miles recovery run, average pace 8:46 mpm, 47°F at 4AM
M PM - 4¾ miles recovery run, average pace 8:08 mpm, 51°F at 10PM
Tu – 6¾ miles, average pace 7:02 mpm, 46°F at 4AM
W AM - 5¾ miles, average pace 6:56 mpm, 64°F and raining at 4AM
W PM – 9 miles, average pace 6:50 mpm, 61°F at 5PM
Th - 18 miles, average pace 7:51 mpm, 67°F at 4PM
F - 7 miles recovery run, average pace 8:21 mpm, 76°F from 1PM humid and windy
Sa – 7¾ miles, average pace 6:55 mpm with 4 miles hard on the track in 6:07, 6:19, 6:31, and 6:18, 73°F to 79°F from 10AM in Glen Rose
Su – 6½ miles, average pace 7:25 mpm, a nice and cool 43°F to 39°F starting at 4:30PM, with some hilly trails along the Paluxy River in Glen Rose


Another weekend working on the house up in Glen Rose, so the Saturday and Sunday runs were short. It was nice to run some of my old routes. The hills on the river really kicked my butt. I started feeling ill over the weekend and by Sunday night I had a pretty bad cold. I took Monday and Tuesday off because I felt so bad.

I can't believe the marathon is less than two weeks away. Normally I'd be obsessing about the weather now, checking all the updates to the long range forecasts. But I've only looked a couple times. With all of the training interruptions I'm just not that excited. I desperately need to get a new pair of shoes. I'm still running on my second pair of Saucony Tangents with over 850 miles on them.

Sunday's Glen Rose Loop

View Larger Map



On the Glen Rose Track for a Saturday Tempo Run

View Larger Map

Here are some cell-phone pictures from Sunday's run in Glen Rose
The Paluxy River


Up the trail on the other side of the river

View from the top of the cliff


Trail along the top