Another Houston Marathon Weather Forecast Update

This post is from 2009.








01-25-11 Edit





Click here for 2011 Houston Marathon weather updates.

























The keys to the forecasts remain the extent of the wraparound Gulf flow expected tomorrow and the arrival of a weak coldfront Saturday night or Sunday morning. I think there's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast, but I really don't like the warmer temperatures. I'm off to the Expo today!

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then gradual clearing during the afternoon and evening.
Wind NW-N 10-17 gust 25
Precip 40% chance of rain.
Temp Low: 56ºF High: 67ºF

This forecast is for the power plant, so I'm hoping those higher temperatures and strong winds will be localized to the coastal areas. Their short range forecast is available on the KUHF site with a much better low temperature of 52ºF predicted for Houston.

Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west.
Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.
This is quite a bit warmer than yesterday's forecast.

Here's the NWS hourly graphical forecast.
The forecasters discussion says:
HIGH PRES SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT TO ALLOW A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. 0Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING MORE QPF COVERAGE (ALBEIT LIGHT) ALONG & AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE CHC CATEGORY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.


The 84 hour model now includes marathon morning. This model hasn't changed much, with temperature in the upper 50s and a warmup and slighter dry-out through the race [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. Here's the text version of the models for Hobby Airport.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Sunday morning they show:
7am 53°F, Cloudy, feels like 53°F, precip 10%, relative humidity 93%, Wind From NNW
3 mph
8am 54°F, Cloudy, feels like 53°F, precip 10%, relative humidity 90%, Wind From NNW
4 mph

For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 73%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 17
Low: 50 °F RealFeel®: 47 °F
Mostly cloudy with a bit of rain


Sunday, Jan 18

High: 64 °F RealFeel®: 64 °F
A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, clouds giving way to some sun