Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Weather Obsession

I'm not too obsessed; I slept through the alarm for this morning's run. The forecasts now are a little warmer and windier with less chance of rain.

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a chance of showers early Sunday, then decreasing clouds
Wind NW-N 12-17 gust 22
Precip 30% chance of rain early Sunday
Temp
Low: 47ºF
High: 64ºF
This was the first source that predicted winds this strong for Sunday. The forecast is for the nuke plant out in Matagorda County where the winds are usually stronger. This weather service's forecasts are the most reliable I've found for this area.

Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Here's the NWS hourly graphical forecast.
THe forecasters discussion says:
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING ACROSS SE TX EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE UNIMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE LEAST...ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE NE ZONES SUN NIGHT.


The 7.5-day model now includes marathon morning. This model has changed to the cooler direction, with temperature and dewpoints in the low 50s [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. Here's the text version of the 7.5-day model.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 48°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 83%


For Sunday they show:
High 64°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 73%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 17
Low: 46 °F RealFeel®: 38 °F
Plenty of clouds and breezy

Sunday, Jan 18
High: 62 °F RealFeel®: 59 °F
Cloudy, chance of a little rain

No comments: