Friday, January 4, 2008

10 Day Forecasts

We're still a long way out from the Houston Marathon and the long range weather forecast really isn't much more than a wild guess, but I enjoy tracking the forecast. In the next few days, we'll have a little better idea of what to expect.

The Weather Channel now has marathon day in their forecast. I've noticed they tend to heavily weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 30%
Wind: N 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 73%

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNW 12 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT


The 16 day model forecast still has temperature in the 30s, but the strong North wind chance of snow flurries are out [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I know of some swampland in Matagorda County....


AccuWeather now has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 33 °F RealFeel®: 20 °F
Windy and cold with rain

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 52 °F RealFeel®: 43 °F
Clouds limiting sunshine



For the record, here's the climate data around Houston Marathon day:
Jan 11 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1995; Record Low Max 30 1962; Record Low 12 1982; Record Hi Min 69 1995; Record Precip 1.77 1934
Jan 12 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 2000; Record Low Max 37 1985; Record Low 17 1962; Record Hi Min 68 2007; Record Precip 1.93 1944
Jan 13 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1935; Record Low Max 32 1996; Record Low 20 1973; Record Hi Min 68 1965; Record Precip 1.53 1967
Jan 14 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 82 1971; Record Low Max 42 1964; Record Low 19 1982; Record Hi Min 63 1965; Record Precip 0.90 1946
Jan 15 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 79 1996; Record Low Max 42 1984; Record Low 23 1979; Record Hi Min 61 1968; Record Precip 1.78 1974
The record high minimum temperatures are the ones that worry me. I hope we don't see anything close to those warm minimums.





Why does Rice play Texas?

No comments: