Catching Up: Marathon Recovery and a 10K Race

Now that the marathon is done, it's time to start thinking about the HARRA Spring Series and its shorter races.

21¼ miles last week after the marathon
M – rest, 47°F at 5AM, arms sore, legs sore and using the handrail to go downstairs, a few twinges from left outside Achilles/foot
Tu – rest, 53°F at 5AM, legs sore and using the handrail to go downstairs, a few twinges from left outside Achilles/foot
W - rest, 49°F and raining at 5AM, walking downstairs easily without the handrail by the afternoon, still a few twinges from left outside Achilles/foot
Th – rest, 53°F 5AM, no more niggles from the left outside Achilles/foot
F - 7½ miles recovery run, average pace 8:18 mpm, 48°F at Noon [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail/SeaC]
Sa – 4¾ miles recovery run with BARRA, average pace 10:01 mpm, 42°F at 7AM overcast cold and windy, [2xNtrail]
Su – 9 miles, average pace 7:21 mpm, 52°F before Noon, Partly Cloudy [SeaC/Ntrail-2M/SeaC]


41¾ miles for the week
M – rest, 57°F at 5AM
Tu – 5¼ miles general aerobic, average pace 7:20 mpm, 67°F overcast and mist at 4AM [Dow/Ol]
W - 5 miles on the track, with 3 miles fairly hard, average pace 6:36 mpm, miles splits for the hard 3 miles were 6:15, 6:09, and 6:00, 51°F at 7PM with mist [B'Wood Track]
Th – 5¼ miles recovery run, average pace 8:17 mpm, 48°F at 4AM [Dow/Ol]
F - 4¼ miles recovery run, average pace 9:02 mpm, 42°F at 4PM [FlagR-P-P]
Sa – 9½ miles with a 10K race at an average pace 6:09 mpm, 43°F at 8AM and overcast [Angleton]
Su – 12½ miles, average pace 6:49 mpm, 55°F from 1:30PM, Partly Cloudy with filtered sun, [SeaC/Ntrail-MBTrail-2x(2M-MBT)/SeaC]

Wednesday's track workout went well and I had pretty high hopes for Saturday's 10K race in Angleton. The weather Saturday morning was very good, with just a light north wind, an overcast sky and cool temperatures. Unfortunately I don't think I was quite ready to race a 10K. I ended up with a 38:14; 3 seconds slower than my 10K PR of 38:11 set on the same course way back in January 2003. Back then, the Angleton race was two weeks before the Houston Marathon. On the positive side, I ran much better than last year. 38:14 age-grades out to 79% (79.4% if you add my months past 48) using the 2006 WAVA factors. I think it's interesting that the 2006 age-grading is relatively higher for the shorter races. Under the old 1994 WAVA factors this would only be a 77.4% performance. Looking forward to the Spring series of shorter races, I'm hoping I can follow the old 1994 factors and get some new PRs.

Here's the Angleton 10K course:

View Larger Map

On the personal side, my son came home this weekend. He is on terminal leave with a medical discharge from the Army. This long ordeal is finally over for us, but I still can't forget the other soldiers from his unit who are over there now and the thousands of families who are still struggling with this war.

Why Does Rice Play Texas?

JFK at Rice Stadium announcing the goal to go to the moon.

With apologies to JFK:

But why, some say, go to the moon or run 2:50?
Why choose this as our goal?
And they may well ask why climb the highest mountain.
Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic?
Why does Rice play Texas?

We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.


Why does Rice play Texas? Those words became the theme of my training for this marathon. What is a tiny private school doing trying to play football against the Goliath University of Texas? Why is a big, old, bald nuke trying to run a 2:50 marathon?

But I'd run a few good races in recent years, most notably 30Ks in 2005 and 2006 that indicated 2:50 was possible. 2005's 1:57:06 30K projects out to a 2:48:40 and 2006's 1:57:57 pointed to a 2:49:54. So I started this training cycle in September shooting for 2:50.


I always run the HARRA Fall Race Series while training for the Houston Marathon. The warmup races usually predict pretty well how my training is progressing and my capabilities for the marathon. This year's races did not go well:
10M 1:04:08 (~2:59:38)
1/2M 1:23:58 (~2:57:05)
25K 1:43:22 (~3:01:06)
30K 2:04:53 (~2:59:53)
The four races clearly showed I had a shot at sub-3 on a good day, but I had no business even considering going any faster. On the other hand, conditions for each of these races weren't optimal. I had a gut feeling that my training was just as strong as it had ever been. I compared my training log to previous years, and I was equaling their mileage base while running some of the more intense training runs faster. The only quantitative indicator I could point to was my David Hays Spreadsheet "Parrot Predictor." The "Parrot Predictor" is the time to run your fastest 26.2 miles of training each week. It's always under-predicted my marathons and it's easy to "game" the indicator by not timing your interval recoveries or running warmups and cooldowns faster than normal. But the Parrot times for most of my training weeks this year were all very strong. It was the only thing I could point to and say 2:50 isn't completely crazy.

My obsession with the weather is pretty well documented here. This year, there wasn't too much excitement with the forecasts and marathon day came out pretty much as predicted the previous week. Houston Hobby recorded:
6:53 AM 48.0 °F dewpoint 42.1 °F North winds at 16.1 mph with gusts to 20.7 mph and Overcast
7:22 AM 48.2°F, dewpoint 42.8°F NNE winds at 11.5 mph and Scattered Clouds
7:53 AM 48.0°F, dewpoint 42.1°F North winds at 10.4 mph and Scattered Clouds
8:53 AM 51.1°F, dewpoint 41.0°F North winds at 12.7 mph and Scattered Clouds
9:53 AM 55.0°F, dewpoint 42.1°F, NNE winds at 13.8 mph with gusts to 20.7 mph and Scattered Clouds
I usually prefer a little cooler temperature, but I really can't complain about upper 40s and the air was nice and dry with the 42°F dewpoint. The winds were a threat and the sun-warmed 55°F at the end of the race was getting pretty warm.

My drive up to Houston went smoothly and I had plenty of time at the GRB Convention Center before the race. I got a little spooked when I saw a large crowd gathered at the bag check area. I decided to check my bag a little early and head out to the start area and hope for a free Porta-Can for my final head stop. But when I worked my way over to the check area for my race number the line was only a few people long. I entered the corral with plenty of time but the line for the starting area Porta-Cans was way too long. With about 15 minutes before the race and well over 20 people ahead of me, I decided to leave the line and just take my place at the staart. I worked my way up to a pretty good position near the front of the red corral, I was only a couple people back from the elite barricades, and I could still feel the wind whipping into my legs. I was a little disappointed about not getting a last bathroom break, but excited with the cool temperatures while nervous about the strong north wind. After the national anthem I tossed my cotton long-sleeved shirt and was ready to race.


Trying to Pace Into the Wind, Miles 1 through 3
1) 6:46 I had good clear running almost from the very start, but I also had full exposure to the North wind. There was a large group of women just up ahead of me with two guys in matching light blue shirts. I was close enough to read from the backs of the two guys that they were pacing an Olympic Development group. I wished the women's OT 'B' was still 2:50 instead of 2:47. I backed off from the pace group as we started up the Elysian Viaduct. Another guy from the power plant Iron-Nuke PeteG was just up ahead of me at the end of the first mile. I was surprised this mile was so slow, considering how hard I was working and how close I was to the 2:47 pace group.
2) 6:23 - 13:09 After the slow first mile, I decided to catch up with Pete. This includes a downhill but was still into the wind.
3) 6:15 - 19:24 We're now heading West and I was amazed at how fast this mile was.

Settling In, Miles 4 through 9
4) 6:29 - 25:53
5) 6:26 - 32:19
6) 6:23 - 38:43 We're already starting to pick off one or two of the women from the OTQ group
10K in 40:27 Me, Or-Shorts, and Pete at 10K and a closer 10K view
7) 6:35 - 45:18
8) 6:23 - 51:41 I think seeing the elite half-marathoners screaming up the opposite side of the street caused me to pick up the pace a little
9) 6:29 - 58:10 I'm feeling pretty good and running by myself, passing the occasional half-marathoner.


Forming Little Groups, Miles 10 through 19
10) 6:31 - 1:04:41 The half marathoners have turned around and the course is all of a sudden very lonely. Up about 20 yards ahead of me there's a guy without a shirt who've I've been running near for several miles and beyond him about 50 yards ahead there's a guy in orange shorts and a dark singlet.
11) 6:31 - 1:11:12 On Main Street, I caught up to the guy without the shirt and I had to point out my old dorm room in the Sid Rich. tower on the Rice campus.
12)6:33 - 1:17:45 Iron-Nuke Pete caught up with us....I was surprised to see him but he said he had been following right behind me.
13)6:28 - 1:24:13
Half marathon in 1:24:52 I'm exactly where I want to be but I'm worried about the wind when we turn north on Post Oak.
14) 6:33 - 1:30:46 This mile is also north into the wind. I entered the windy part by myself, but the guy with the orange shorts is within striking distance so I picked up the pace to catch up with him. I shamelessly drafted off him for the rest of Wesleyan. Running was much easier drafting behind him. A older woman watching from a yard said we looked like a train.
15) 6:31 - 1:37:17 There were some inflatables on the side of the Westpark Overpass that were getting blown down to my height by the strong cross-wind. I passed the orange-shorts guy near the Southwest Freeway and passed a couple more women from the OTQ group on the 59 feeder. They made this normally boring section go by pretty well. Something smelled pretty bad in this area...they probably thought it was me. I passed another OT group woman as I went under 610. I told her to follow me up Post Oak.
16-17) 12:58 - 1:50:15 I missed the mile 16 marker on Post Oak last year too. I ended up leading the whole way up Post Oak. Orange-shorts guy was right behind me. After all of my pre-race planning to not get caught alone running into the wind on Post Oak, there I was, lead locomotive for another train.
18) 6:33 - 1:56:49
30K in 2:01:01 The pace callers were still calling out 6:29/6:30.
19) 6:33 - 2:03:22 I ran through Tanglewood with the kid in the orange shorts. He yelled Bucky to a woman who had a U of Wisconsin Bucky the Badger sweatshirt so I figured he was a cheesehead. I looked for President and Barbara Bush so I could point them out to him, but I never saw them.

The Real Race
20) 6:39 - 2:10:01 Orange-shorts guy started opening up on me, especially after the Memorial Park railroad underpass. I know 2:50 is over, I probably have known it since San Felipe (mile 17).
21) 6:36 - 2:16:37 I'm still picking off the occasional woman from the OTQ group but orange-shorts is fading into the distance.
22) 6:39 - 2:23:16
23) 6:41 - 2:29:58 I'm really surprised to see RichF on Shepherd and I passed him near the cemetery on Allen Parkway. I think I'm still ahead of RichardP and I just passed Rich F (two of the top local masters) so I know I really can't be running that bad.
24) 6:49 - 2:36:47 I worked catching up to two more women from the OTQ group through the Alen Parkway underpasses.
25) 6:51 - 2:43:37 I got a great cheer from JenB that really lifted my spirits but the downtown buildings aren't coming in fast enough.
26) 6:46 - 2:50:24 JohnY screamed past me as I entered downtown. I have no idea why he was behind me. It must have been a training run. I can start to see orange-shorts guy up ahead again and I'm closing on him.
26.22) 1:18 - 2:51:41.8 I decided to go for orange-shorts guy and pick him off just before the finish. This is the fastest I've ever run those last 385 yards. I turned around after the finish to shake hands with orange-shorts and it turns out he was a different guy in orange shorts. Later, I saw in the results that the orange-shorts cheesehead finished in 2:49:59; if only......

Finish line picture taken by Michael McGuff of KTRK-13:




I didn't get 2:50, but I did get a nice PR and a super placing. I'm really surprised that my age grading (79.8%, 80.17% if you include my extra 7 months past 48....is that cheating?) was best of all 40-50 year old's and that I finished ahead of everyone my age or older. I might even get a 2nd place age group award in the mail someday. I've never placed in a marathon before this race.

There is a troubling aspect of my high age-grading. My 79.8% for a 2:51:42 48 year old was higher than the Masters Winner's 79.6% age grading for a 2:40:45 at 40 years old. Although I'm not a big believer in age grading, this does imply that trying to improve next year at age 49+ is going to be much more difficult. I just don't think I have much more room for training improvements.

A "Boak"?

I think I might have "Boaked" the Houston Marathon. Roger Boak is a fixture of Houston running. He's one of those great runners who continues to smoke people half his age. I once heard the term "Boak" to describe finishing ahead of everyone your age or older.

I'm stunned. I can't believe I could finish ahead of everyone 48 or older. All of the fast runners must have been running the half-marathon.



Here's a sort of ugly looking finish. I'm much too bald for this camera angle.

Quick and Dirty

Well, Rice has only beaten Texas once in over forty years. But every once in a while a scrappy Rice Owls team gives Texas a scare.

Kevin R - Marathon | Bib 568 |
Lake Jackson, TX - USA | Male | Age 48
Start 6:59:17 AM
10K 00:40:08
Half 1:24:53
30K 02:01:01
Finish 02:51:42

Chip Time: 02:51:42 Clock Time: 2:51:46 Pace: 6:32.9

Friday Expo and Tornados

View of Houston from the GRB


Constructing the finish line


Registration


Roger Clemens during a pitching demonstration for local HS baseball players


The secret to the Tornados speed

Last Weather Post

It's a pretty warm morning down here on the coast. The basic forecast still hasn't changed much. Some of the predicted morning low temperatures have climbed a little and there still seems to be quite a bit of variability with the wind predictions. We'll know for sure in 24 hours.


Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Marathon day is also now in the hourly prediction.

Conditions look similar on the 8-day model forecast and 84-hour model forecast with temperature starting in the upper 40s and a north wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].


Here's the text version of the GFS 8-day model forecast for those who don't like these graphics. Marathon morning is also now on the text ETA model forecast and also on the text NGM model forecast Note that 1200 UTC on January 13th is 0600 Central Standard Time, one hour before the marathon starts.


The Weather Channel now has hourly forecast for the Marathon:
7am Mostly Clear 45°F, feels like 41°F, precip 0%, dewpoint 40°F rel hum 83%
Wind From N 7 mph
Sunrise 7:18 am

8am Mostly Sunny 47°F, feels like 43°F, precip 0%, dewpoint 41°F, rel hum 80%
Wind From N 8 mph

9am Mostly Sunny 49°F, feels like 45°F, precip 0%, dewpoint 41°F, rel hum 74%
Wind From N 9 mph

10am Mostly Sunny 52°F, feels like 49°F, precip 0%, dewpoint 41°F, rel hum 66%
Wind From N 9 mph

11am Sunny 56°F, feels like 53°F, precip 0%, dewpoint 40°F, rel hum 55%
Wind From N 10 mph

12pm Sunny 60°F, feels like 58°F, precip 0%, dewpoint 39°F, rel hum 46%
Wind From N 10 mph




AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 1 to 5 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 45 °F RealFeel®: 41 °F
Mainly clear


Sunday, Jan 13
High: 65 °F RealFeel®: 63 °F
Mostly sunny


The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, breezy, and a bit cooler.
Wind NW-N 7-12 increasing to N-NE 10-15 gust 20 late morning
Precip No precipitation forecast
Temp
Low: 46ºF High: 64ºF


This forecast is for the power plant, so I'm hoping those strong winds will be localized to the coastal areas. Their short range forecast is available on the KUHF site



Good luck everybody!





Why does Rice play Texas?

A Promising Morning

It's a beautiful morning in South Texas. I'm volunteering at the Marathon Veterans Booth from Noon to 2PM today, so I'm not sure if I'll have time to get a run in today after I finish all of the usual Friday household chores. That's OK. I usually don't run the Friday and Saturday before the marathon.

The basic weather forecast for this week still hasn't changed much. I think the biggest variable up ahead is how that weak cold front predicted Saturday will arrive. There is a chance that west winds could develop after the front and slow the arrival of the colder air Saturday night. Temperature and humidity don't seem to be an issue, but some of the forecasts are predicting some stronger winds that could hurt a little.

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly sunny.
Wind N-NE 10-15 gust 20
Precip No precipitation forecast
Temp
Low: 46ºF High: 67ºF

This forecast is for the power plant, so I'm hoping those strong winds will be localized to the coastal areas. Their short range forecast is available on the KUHF site


Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: Isolated showers before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Marathon day is also now in the hourly prediction.

Conditions look better on the 8-day model forecast and 84-hour model forecast with temperature starting in the 40s and a lesser north-northeast wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].


Here's the text version of the GFS 8-day model forecast for those who don't like these graphics. Marathon morning is also now on the text ETA model forecast and also on the text NGM model forecast Note that 1200 UTC on January 13th is 0600 Central Standard Time, one hour before the marathon starts.


The Weather Channel forecast for Saturday night shows:
Overnight Low 44°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%

For Sunday they show:
High 66°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 54%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT




AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 1 to 5 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 45 °F RealFeel®: 42 °F
Mainly clear

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 65 °F RealFeel®: 66 °F
Mostly sunny

Good luck everybody!





Why does Rice play Texas?

An Old Race Report from the 2004 Houston Marathon

This is an old race report from the 2004 Houston Marathon. There was a fairly strong wind that day that started out from the west and shifted to the north by the end of the race. During the middle of the race sustained wind was 15 mph with gusts to 22. If you're really bored:

Here's the quick and dirty:
Times 5K 20:13 10K 40:46 HALF 1:26:46 30K 2:04:12 37K 2:34:41 Pace (min./mile) 6:42 ClockTime 2:55:51 ChipTime 2:55:46

Goal
Back in August I decided on a goal of 6:40 mpm. This would be a pretty good PR, might be enough to get me near the 1st corral in Boston 2005, and is the number of the submarine class I was on (640 class, I was on SSBN 642).

Training
I calculated 6:40 equivalent paces for four warmup races through the Fall. I missed the goal pace by 10 spm during a warm 10 miler in October, but beat it during the subsequent 20K, 25K, and 30K races. I missed my local 10K race two weeks ago and substituted a 9K in New Orleans that I ran pretty poorly.
10M 1:03:38 (~2:58:30)
20K 1:17:57 (~2:53:20)
25K 1:39:24 (~2:52:10)
30K 1:59:28 (~2:52:10)
9K 35:59 (~3:08:00)

These compared pretty well against last year's races:
10M 1:07:33 (~3:09:30) On an incredibly hot and humid day
20K 1:20:54 (~2:59:51)
25K 1:50:14 (~3:13:00) Another warm and humid day
30K 2:03:02 (~2:57:14)
10K 38:11 (~2:58:10)
M 2:58:53 The highlight of my running career, a super 16 minute PR on a near perfect day

I started off from a Summer base of about 50 mpw and averaged 67 mpw from M 18 to M 2 with a peak of 87 mpw. This compared pretty well against last year's mileage: 64 mpw average with a 83 peak. The warmup races had me thinking 6:35 mpm was do able with cool weather. But January's super slow 9K had me really discouraged. I shifted my goals from 6:40 mpm toward 6:35 mpm. I was able to get 7 20 milers in, but several were pretty slow due to warmer than normal weather in December hitting on my long run days. In retrospect, my training was pretty weak in tempo runs at 6:40 or faster.

I left my house at ~4:15AM, much relieved that the promised cold front came through overnight, leaving a beautiful starry sky and much cooler temps. I watched the crescent moon rise during my drive to Houston and started wondering if I'd need my sunglasses. I talked with a few people before the race, then hit the Porta pots one last time at about 6:25. Murphy's Law: My line was held up for over ten minutes by one person. Why would anyone stay that long in a stinky Porta can? The lines were all moving past us. We were wondering if we'd need to call the EMTs. The guy finally emerged, but I didn't make it through the line until 6:50 I worked my way up the stream of people to drop off my bag and then ran out the North entrance to the starting line. I was just barely able to squeeze in before the F 16 flyby. I was about ten or fifteen rows back, but not too bad, whew!


Split Elapsed

1. 6:25 6:25 Got stuck behind a fairly large pack of people barely shuffling along. The initial frustration and adrenaline got the best of me after getting around them. Finally put on the brakes when I pulled in behind Rich F, one of the top local masters.

2. 6:35 13:00 My right shin feels really bad; I'm not going to be able to run 26 with shin splints. Still maintaining position behind RichF: somewhat surprised he's starting this slowly (or maybe that's why he's one of the top masters?).

3. 6:32 21:34 Still up with Rich, but after this mile I know it's time to let him go.

4. 6:36 28:44 This is the pace I'd planned to run. The shin splints aren't as bad now, but I still don't feel very good. I don't remember as many hills (small inclines?) in here from last year. Spent a while looking over my shoulder at a beautiful sunrise over downtown Houston while crossing I45. It looks as though the weather forecast is going to hold with a cloud cover building up.

5. 6:34 32:42 Waved to a coworker from the Nuke plant here. He'd set up a spot marked by yellow balloons with radiation symbols for runners from the power plant to toss extra clothing. I had nothing to discard.

6. 6:41 39:23 Still by myself here. I start looking around for someone I know to latch onto.

7. 6:40 46:03 I see someone up ahead who looks like one of the group of four I ran with last year. He hears someone cheer for the Tornados, my running club, we start talking and it's the same guy. I haven't seen him (Dan) since last year.

8. 6:36 52:39 I'm talking with Dan quite a bit, catching up with last year's race and his goals for this year. He got 2nd place in his AG last year (20 24, he's a recent grad from UPenn) and missed 1st, and an hp digital camera award, by just a few seconds.

9. 6:40 59:20 The half marathoners turn around here and we find we're nearly all alone. There are only two runners visible in front of us, nearly 100 yards away.

10. 6:38 1:05:57 We enter my favorite area of the course near Rice U. I'm feeling a little better, the shin splints are long gone, but I still feel I shouldn't be working this hard now.

11. 6:45 1:12:42 Heading SouthWest down Main Street, amazed that it seems to be into the wind...uh oh. This is one of my favorite miles. I point out my residential college, where I lived the 4 years I was at Rice U. Martin, another big guy, came up to us but dropped back after only a few seconds. He would've been a great wind screen. Dan isn't much taller than chest high on me.

12. 6:39 1:19:21 Onto University Drive, still along the Rice campus. This part is WestNorthWest, but it doesn't seem as windy

13. 6:43 1:26:04 Not talking with Dan as much as we work through the wind. We're still side by side but I'm thinking we really should be single file. One of the announcers from the local NPR station calls both our names and towns out over the loudspeakers at WestU. There's nobody else near us.

14. 6:41 1:32:45

15. 6:44 1:39:29 We catch up to another guy and Dan asks him to run with us. I finally take the initiative and ask them to follow behind me single file as I speed up. I run over the big hill/overpass by myself, not sure if they're in behind me. Dan comes up alongside me again at the first turn after the downhill.

16. (~6:47 ) Missed this mile mark. There's a pretty tough, lonely section here that's a wide sweeping curve between the SouthWest Freeway and a noise barrier.

17. 13:35 (16 and 17) 1:53:04 Heading North up Post Oak. A pack of a couple people including Miguel from my Houston running club (he's 52 yo!) passes us and I try to do a little drafting.

18. 6:47 1:59:51 West again on San Felipe. I couldn't keep up with Miguel but I'm maintaining about 20 yards back behind him. Dan's still running alongside, but I was able to a little drafting passing a few people.

19. 6:42 2:06:32 In the Tanglewood ($$$) area. I'm falling back a little from Dan. He encourages me to pull up with him, but I'm feeling pretty tired. We turn East onto Woodway and the wind is suddenly gone My average pace has climbed up to 6:40 and I feel defeated. (At Houston, most of the miles have timers calling out average pace...even with the late miles' mental haze it's easy to gauge your progress (or my decline .)

20. 6:49 2:13:21 I'm back up with Dan, passing a few people but still maintaining about 30 yards behind Miguel.

21. 6:48 2:20:09 Includes a rail line underpass, the first of several to come. I see Victor, my Houston running club's "Pappy", in Memorial Park; he asks how I feel and I say I'm pretty tired. Agapito, 'Pete,' from the power plant and my Houston running club (actually Victor and Pete got me to join this running club) passes me. I tell him way to go and that he looks really strong.

22. 6:37 2:26:47 Victor comes past me and I follow him. I think Dan drifts back here. I'm surprised because I was struggling to keep up with him just a few miles ago. I'm in a line of four people from my running club: Miguel about 30 yards ahead, then Pete, then Victor, then me. It's pretty cool seeing all the same Tornados singlets up ahead. A little farther up ahead there are two women, the first women runners I've seen since the half marathoners split off!

23. 6:55 2:33:42 We caught up to Pete, but after getting beside him for just a few seconds, I drift back again. I'm pretty discouraged this mile. Pete passes Miguel who's behind one of the women (with a pony tail). The other woman is running much slower and I pass her.

24. 7:01 2:40:42 Onto Allen Parkway. I'm losing sight of Pete, but still maintaining my distance behind Miguel and the pony tail woman.

25. 6:56 2:47:39 Downtown is just up ahead. Victor stops and when I catch up to him he tells me concentrate on Miguel. I catch up to Miguel, but the pony tail person up ahead seems to be gaining on me.

26. 6:44 2:54:22 Finally into the downtown area! Two guys pass me, but I catch up and pass a woman in Colorado flag shorts.

26.22 1:24 2:55:46 I think I'm by myself again. I hear the announcer call my name and hometown. If you have the video from Channel 13, they actually follow my big ugly body around the last corner.

Pretty mixed feelings about this race. Ended up with a 6:42 mpm average....is that revenge from my old submarine? Excedrin Headache 642.

Worriesome Morning

After yesterday's nice weather, it was warm and humid this morning. At 4AM it was misty with occasional light rain and 71*F down here on the coast. Awful conditions for a marathon. The computer model did a fairly good job predicting this warmup, but many of the forecasts didn't. The Gulf waters are still warm enough to cause a pretty rapid warmup with a southeast wind.


The basic weather forecast for this week still hasn't changed much, but the forecast low temperature does still seem to be creeping higher. Another weak frontal boundary is moving across the region today. Skies will clear this evening with cooler overnight lows in the 40s expected. Fair skies and dry conditions will then prevail Friday and much of Saturday with another front bringing slightly cooler air Sunday into the first part of next week.

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly sunny.
Wind N-NE 10-15 gust 20
Precip No precipitation forecast
Temp
Low: 48ºF High: 65ºF

They've dropped the Southerly winds and gone to pretty strong Northerlies for Sunday.


Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

Marathon day is also now in the hourly prediction.

Conditions still look good on the 8-day model forecast with temperature starting in the 40s and a lesser north-northeast wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].


Here's the text version of the GFS 8-day model forecast for those who don't like these graphics. Marathon morning is also now on the text ETA model forecast Note that 1200 UTC on January 13th is 0600 Central Standard Time, one hour before the marathon starts.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 44°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NW 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 73%


For Sunday they show:
High 64°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 56%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT




AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 1 to 5 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 45 °F RealFeel®: 36 °F
Clear

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 54 °F
Breezy with sunshine and patchy clouds

My training is done. I ran my traditional "two miles at GMP on the track" workout last night. There was a soccer game at the High School, so I ran on the little four-lane track at the Intermediate School. Even though it's just four lanes, it's a pretty good rubberized asphalt track with all of the relay lane markings. I had a little trouble staying on pace, but my GMP miles ended up being 6:29-6:28 and I felt great throughout the workout. I might have run the warmup and cooldown a little too fast. Over the 6 miles, my average pace was 6:52 and my average heart rate was 144. I ran a short recovery run this morning before work, averaging only 120bpm heart rate at a nice easy 8:41 pace over 4 3/4 miles. Good luck everybody!




Why does Rice play Texas?

What a Difference a Day Makes

It's a beautiful day today in SouthEast Texas!

I've been a little surprised at how closely the forecasts from all of the various sources are agreeing. I don't want to jinx us, but it's looking good. The basic weather forecast for this week hasn't changed much. Winds will become southeasterly this afternoon, bringing in just enough moisture for a another risk of showers tomorrow as a weak front moves through. Another chance of rain is expected on Saturday but again most of the area will remain dry through the weekend.

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Partly cloudy
Wind SE 5-10
Precip No precipitation forecast
Temp
Low: 45ºF
High: 61ºF
This is the only source I've seen that doesn't have northerlies for Sunday. But this weather service's forecasts are the most reliable I've found for this area.


Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.

Marathon day is also now in the hourly prediction.

Conditions still look good on the 8-day model forecast with temperature starting in the 40s and a north wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].


Here's the text version of the GFS 8-day model forecast for those who don't like these graphics.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 43°F
Precip 20%
Wind: N 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%

For Sunday they show:
High 64°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 60%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 1 to 5 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 45 °F RealFeel®: 36 °F
Clear

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 54 °F
Breezy with sunshine and patchy clouds

I got to sleep in this morning until 0440! I'm running my traditional "two miles at GMP on the track" workout tonight. I might even sleep in tomorrow too. I've been thinking of doing a short recovery run Friday morning before driving to Houston for the Expo and, later, the Tornados pasta party. I'll probably take Saturday off completely. I haven't had a zero mileage day since September 4th.





Why does Rice play Texas?

Thirty Degrees F Above Normal

Wow! The low this morning at IAH was 71 degrees F. That's 30 degrees above the normal low at IAH and seven degrees warmer than the highest low temperature ever recorded at IAH/Hobby on a January 8th (64 degrees in 1965). A cold front is supposed to arrive this evening and drive the temperature at IAH down into the 50s before midnight, so there shouldn't be another new record. Thank goodness. I'm still a little concerned that the predictions for Sunday seem to be getting warmer.

The basic weather forecast for this week still is abnormally warm today, followed by a return to more seasonal weather. A front will move through late this afternoon or early this evening with a second front on Thursday bringing another chance of rain. Another weak front will move through on Saturday bringing a few showers and a thunderstorm or two followed by sunny skies and near normal temperatures on Sunday and more cold air arriving through the day Sunday and Monday.



Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Marathon day is also now in the hourly prediction.

Conditions still look good on the 8-day model forecast with temperature starting in the 40s and a north wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 43°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%


For Sunday they show:
High 62°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 60%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT


AccuWeather has Saturday night on their 1 to 5 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 45 °F RealFeel®: 32 °F
Breezy with considerable cloudiness

AccuWeather has Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 52 °F
Mostly sunny and breezy




Why does Rice play Texas?

Week 17: Marathon Taper

It's not good when the alligators are out in January. This guy better not be hanging out in the sun on Sunday the 13th.




The basic weather forecast for this week is abnormally warm today and tomorrow morning, followed by a return to more seasonal weather. A front will move through near midday tomorrow with a second front on Thursday bringing another chance of rain. Another weak front will move through on Saturday bringing a few showers and a thunderstorm or two followed by sunny skies and near normal temperatures on Sunday.


Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 62.


The 8-day model forecast now includes marathon morning. Conditions still look really good, with temperature in the low 40s and a light wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The NWS forecast discussion indicates there's quite a bit of uncertainty from Thursday on.



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 42°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%


For Sunday they show:
High 62°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 60%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 42 °F RealFeel®: 33 °F
Partly cloudy

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 60 °F RealFeel®: 58 °F
Mostly sunny


58½ miles for the week
This was a fairly high intensity, but reduced volume, marathon taper week.

M – 7½ miles recovery run, average pace 8:19 mpm, 71°F at 11AM Sunny, Vacation Day, [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail/SeaC]
Tu – 9 miles general aerobic fairly hard, average pace 6:40 mpm, 52°F at 1PM [SeaC/Ntrail-2M/SeaC]
W - 6¾ miles, 3x1600/400recoveries, average pace 7:05 mpm, 1600s in 5:48, 5:48, and 5:47, Cold! 44°F at 7PM [B'Wood Track]
Th – 5¾ miles recovery run, average pace 8:34 mpm, Cold! 36°F at 4AM [SB/Dow]
F - 9 miles general aerobic fairly hard, average pace 6:42 mpm, 61°F at 10AM [SeaC/Ntrail-2M/SeaC]
Sa – 7½ miles recovery run, average pace 8:43 mpm, 74°F at 1PM mostly cloudy, [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail/SeaC]
Su – 13 miles, average pace 7:02 mpm, 76°F from 11AM, Partly Cloudy, windy and humid [SeaC/Ntrail-3x2M/SeaC]

Not much training left:
M 7th: r6
Tu AM 8th: r5
Tu AM 8th: r4 [I will NOT run a stinking double that day!]
W 9th: g8 with 2@GMP
Th 10th: r6
F 11th: r5
Sa 12th: r4



Why does Rice play Texas?

Sunday the 13th Better NOT Be Like Sunday the 6th

We're still a ways out from the Houston Marathon, but I enjoy tracking the forecast. Today was proof that weather can make an enormous difference in race performance. Just a nice short 13 miles proved incredibly tough with the temperature at 76*F, dewpoint in the mid-60s and a strong Gulf breeze. Just a couple of days ago I was running 6:30 pace easily. Today, I was struggling to maintain 7mpm.

Marathon Day is now on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 63.

The 8-day model forecast now includes marathon morning. Conditions still look really good, with temperature in the low 40s and a light wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The NWS forecast discussion indicates there's quite a bit of uncertainty from Thursday on.



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%

For Sunday they show:
High 53°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNE 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 58%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT



AccuWeather now has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 42 °F RealFeel®: 36 °F
Mainly clear

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 60 °F RealFeel®: 60 °F
Mostly sunny

On the 8-Day Forecast

We're still a ways out from the Houston Marathon, but I enjoy tracking the forecast.

The 8-day model forecast now includes marathon morning. Conditions look really good right now, with temperature in the low 40s and a light wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The NWS forecast discussion indicates there's quite a bit of uncertainty from Thursday on.



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 47°F
Precip 20%
Wind: ENE 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 88%

For Sunday they show:
High 68°F
Precip 40%
Wind: NNE 12 mph
Max. Humidity: 75%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT



AccuWeather now has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 38 °F RealFeel®: 31 °F
Partly cloudy


Sunday, Jan 13
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 54 °F
Mostly sunny

10 Day Forecasts

We're still a long way out from the Houston Marathon and the long range weather forecast really isn't much more than a wild guess, but I enjoy tracking the forecast. In the next few days, we'll have a little better idea of what to expect.

The Weather Channel now has marathon day in their forecast. I've noticed they tend to heavily weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 30%
Wind: N 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 73%

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNW 12 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT


The 16 day model forecast still has temperature in the 30s, but the strong North wind chance of snow flurries are out [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I know of some swampland in Matagorda County....


AccuWeather now has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 33 °F RealFeel®: 20 °F
Windy and cold with rain

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 52 °F RealFeel®: 43 °F
Clouds limiting sunshine



For the record, here's the climate data around Houston Marathon day:
Jan 11 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1995; Record Low Max 30 1962; Record Low 12 1982; Record Hi Min 69 1995; Record Precip 1.77 1934
Jan 12 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 2000; Record Low Max 37 1985; Record Low 17 1962; Record Hi Min 68 2007; Record Precip 1.93 1944
Jan 13 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1935; Record Low Max 32 1996; Record Low 20 1973; Record Hi Min 68 1965; Record Precip 1.53 1967
Jan 14 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 82 1971; Record Low Max 42 1964; Record Low 19 1982; Record Hi Min 63 1965; Record Precip 0.90 1946
Jan 15 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 79 1996; Record Low Max 42 1984; Record Low 23 1979; Record Hi Min 61 1968; Record Precip 1.78 1974
The record high minimum temperatures are the ones that worry me. I hope we don't see anything close to those warm minimums.





Why does Rice play Texas?

Forecast Still Calls for Cold Weather

We're still a long way out from the Houston Marathon and the long range weather forecast really isn't much more than a wild guess, but I enjoy tracking the forecast. In the next few days, we'll have a little better idea of what to expect.

The 16 day model forecast still has temperature in the 30s and a strong North wind, but now includes a chance of snow flurries [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I know of some swampland in Matagorda County....


AccuWeather now has Saturday night now on their 6 to 10 day forecast and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 29 °F RealFeel®: 19 °F
Mainly clear and cold

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 52 °F RealFeel®: 51 °F
Sunny


For the record, here's the climate data around Houston Marathon day:
Jan 11 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1995; Record Low Max 30 1962; Record Low 12 1982; Record Hi Min 69 1995; Record Precip 1.77 1934
Jan 12 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 2000; Record Low Max 37 1985; Record Low 17 1962; Record Hi Min 68 2007; Record Precip 1.93 1944
Jan 13 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1935; Record Low Max 32 1996; Record Low 20 1973; Record Hi Min 68 1965; Record Precip 1.53 1967
Jan 14 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 82 1971; Record Low Max 42 1964; Record Low 19 1982; Record Hi Min 63 1965; Record Precip 0.90 1946
Jan 15 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 79 1996; Record Low Max 42 1984; Record Low 23 1979; Record Hi Min 61 1968; Record Precip 1.78 1974
The record high minimum temperatures are the ones that worry me. I hope we don't see anything close to those warm minimums.

Just a recovery run before work today. It was the coldest run of the season, 36 degrees at 4AM. Here's my favorite route when it's dark, out to the Dow "Nature Reserve" 4 3/4 miles with an extra mile loop around the nighborhood [SB/Dow]:

View Larger Map



Why does Rice play Texas?

A New Training Log for 2008

I admit it. I'm also so anal I keep three running logs. I keep a good old fashioned paper log based on the old log Runner's World gives away. I made my own version in MicrosSoft Word and print out enough pages to fold over and staple together for about a year and a half. Here's an example. My current log has a laminated page of the McMillan Running Calculator as a cover.

I keep two Excel spreadsheet logs. The first one I started almost ten years ago and tracks mileage. My other Excel spreadsheet log is one published by David Hays. It keeps track of mileage, times, race performances, etc. It's formatted for one year, so I start a new one each year (the reason behind this post). I modify it to include more Pfitz-like training run descriptions, more shoes, and a few other things. I learned quite a bit about Excel by changing this log. Here's the offical version:
David Hays Log Page
And here's a Blank Copy of My Version

Here's a calendar-based spreadsheet log (month-at-a-glance): Blank Monthly Log
I haven't used this log, but I like all of the information that's displayed on a one month sheet. This spreadsheet was created by "fat pumpkin", a very talented marathoner from Louisiana.

Here's what the log looks like with the fat pumpkin's data: Monthly Log Example

Edit 3/27/09
I just started using the on-line log at RunningAHEAD. I really like the way this site integrates data from a GPS. Here's one of the charts from a recent 4x800/400 interval workout:

Another 2008 Houston Marathon Weather Update

We're still a long way out from the Houston Marathon and the long range weather forecast really isn't much more than a wild guess, but I enjoy tracking the forecast.

The 16 day model forecast for Houston Marathon day now shows a cooler Saturday the 12th [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. Marathon morning still has temperature in the 30s, a strong North wind at 20 mph, BUT the chance of freezing rain is gone....... And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I know of some swampland in Matagorda County....


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 32 °F RealFeel®: 39 °F
Mainly clear

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 57 °F RealFeel®: 57 °F
Sunny and warmer


For the record, here's the climate data around Houston Marathon day:
Jan 11 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1995; Record Low Max 30 1962; Record Low 12 1982; Record Hi Min 69 1995; Record Precip 1.77 1934
Jan 12 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 2000; Record Low Max 37 1985; Record Low 17 1962; Record Hi Min 68 2007; Record Precip 1.93 1944
Jan 13 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1935; Record Low Max 32 1996; Record Low 20 1973; Record Hi Min 68 1965; Record Precip 1.53 1967
Jan 14 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 82 1971; Record Low Max 42 1964; Record Low 19 1982; Record Hi Min 63 1965; Record Precip 0.90 1946
Jan 15 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 79 1996; Record Low Max 42 1984; Record Low 23 1979; Record Hi Min 61 1968; Record Precip 1.78 1974
The record high minimum temperatures are the ones that worry me. I hope we don't see anything close to those warm minimums.

I'm moving the schedule around a little to run the 3x1600 tonight.

Update: I had trouble getting going tonight. I can't believe I'm saying this, but it might have been a little too cold! It was about 44 degrees F, but that's one of the coldest runs I've done this season. I don't think I was really warmed up until the second 1600. The heart rate graph seems to show that:

I ran a two mile warmup in 14:37, then the 1600s were 5:48, 5:48, and 5:47. I had a lot of trouble reading my watch, so I was surprised how close these were.

Not a very interesting track history tonight:

View Larger Map



Why does Rice play Texas?

Weather Update

We're still a long way out from the Houston Marathon and the long range weather forecast really isn't much more than a wild guess, but I enjoy tracking the forecast.

The 16 day model forecast for Houston Marathon day now shows cold air not arriving until late on the 12th [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The weather through the 11th looks pretty bad, warm and humid with the dewpoint above 60. Marathon morning now has temperature in the 30s, a strong North wind at 20 mph, and a chance of freezing rain.....I'm glad it's just a long range forecast. And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I know of some swampland in Matagorda County....


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 31 °F RealFeel®: 16 °F
Very cold with rain, which can freeze on surfaces late

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 50 °F RealFeel®: 46 °F
Periods of rain and freezing rain


For the record, here's the climate data around Houston Marathon day:
Jan 11 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1995; Record Low Max 30 1962; Record Low 12 1982; Record Hi Min 69 1995; Record Precip 1.77 1934
Jan 12 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 2000; Record Low Max 37 1985; Record Low 17 1962; Record Hi Min 68 2007; Record Precip 1.93 1944
Jan 13 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1935; Record Low Max 32 1996; Record Low 20 1973; Record Hi Min 68 1965; Record Precip 1.53 1967
Jan 14 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 82 1971; Record Low Max 42 1964; Record Low 19 1982; Record Hi Min 63 1965; Record Precip 0.90 1946
Jan 15 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 79 1996; Record Low Max 42 1984; Record Low 23 1979; Record Hi Min 61 1968; Record Precip 1.78 1974
The record high minimum temperatures are the ones that worry me. I hope we don't see anything close to those warm minimums.

A general aerobic 9 mile run for me today. I might have pushed the pace a little too hard, 6:40 average pace. Back to work tomorrow.



Why does Rice play Texas?