M-2 Expo Day

The Expo is on the first floor of the GR Brown this year, with the entrance at the south end of the building (Hall E). I hope I can still get my secret parking spot.

The Houston Chronicle's Dale Robertson wrote an excellent article about HeidyL yesterday.

Why the obsession over the weather? I think it's interesting (yes nukes are easily amused). Weather systems and the atmosphere are incredibly complex and dynamic. The forecasts aren't always right and often change, but I'm amazed at how much computer modeling has improved over the last few years.
But why race day weather? It's true we have no control over the weather and everyone will race under the same conditions. But only a select handful of elites will be competing against others. We will be running against ourselves. Whether it's a 40°F wind-free day or it's warm, humid, and windy, running over 26 miles will be a difficult, painful struggle. But when you're running fast, faster than you've ever run before, it's a good pain.

The NWS forecaster's discussion is filled with cryptic jargon, but there will be some rain Sunday morning. Z time is UTC (coordinated universal time or Greenwich mean time), so the 7AM race start is at 13Z.
SOUTHERN BRANCH BRINGING CIRRUS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOST OF THE MORNING. A VERY PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP. UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL START MOVING EAST AND WILL TAP INTO RATHER RICH GULF MOISTURE SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY AND THEN LL MOISTURE RAMPS UP QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKING WET AS 1-1.4" PW ARRIVE WITH THE S/W SWEEPING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE...HIGH POPS ARE IN ORDER. MODERATE WAA IN PLACE...INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIM BUT LI OF 0 TO -2 POSSIBLE/CAPE LESS THAN 400 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS...GFS HITS THE NORTHERN CWA HARD AROUND 06Z SUN...ECMWF NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST 06-15Z (AND WITH BETTER INSTABILITY) AND THE NAM CENTRAL 8-18Z. IN THIS FORECAST HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING AND LIKELY BY 10 AM FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL HAVE SHRA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.


The hourly weather forecast looks worse again today. At start time it's showing temperature at 59°F and the dewpoint at 58°F with the winds south at 7 mph, and 10AM shows temperature up to 63°F and the dewpoint at 59°F with the winds south-southwest at 8 mph. But it does show the heavier rain ending by 6AM.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature in the 60s°F, rain ending, and a southwest wind at 6 mph. The text versions of the MRF model. show temperatures above 60°F and dewpoints in the upper 50s°F to 60°F.



The 84-hour ETA model now includes marathon Sunday [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature and dewpoint at or above 60°F, rain, and a south wind going over 10mph. Not good.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Sunday they show:
7AM 59°F, feels like 58°F
Chance of Rain 50%
Wind: S 7 mph
Humidity: 96%
Scattered T-Storms
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT

8AM 60°F, feels like 59°F
Chance of Rain 20%
Wind: S 8 mph
Humidity: 96%
Mostly Cloudy

9AM 61°F, feels like 61°F
Chance of Rain 20%
Wind: S 8 mph
Humidity: 96%
Mostly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their hourly forecast. They're still raising their temperature predictions but it's not too bad:
7AM, Jan 30
58°F RealFeel®: 56°F
Dewpoint 56°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 6 mph

8AM, Jan 30
59°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Dewpoint 57°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 6 mph

9AM, Jan 30
62°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Dewpoint 58°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 7 mph

10AM, Jan 30
64°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Dewpoint 58°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 7 mph

11AM, Jan 30
63°F RealFeel®: 63°F
Dewpoint 57°F
Rain
Winds SW at 8 mph