Back to the Old Finish and Questionable Weather

The marathon course has a slight change this year. The downtown finish is back to the one used several years ago, with a straight shot through downtown and a quick left turn to finish in front of the GRB. I like it better than weaving through downtown and then that very long straightaway down Rusk to the north end of the GRB.
Here are the certification sketch and details:



Uncertainty about the timing of a cold front next weekend remains the big weather story. Today's NWS discussion highlights the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

WILL SEE A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT ON THURS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE FRI. LOW FCST CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT POINT. GFS STILL SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AND SHOW AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THRU THE WEEKEND. LEFT THE FCST AS-IS BEYOND FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TEMPS COULD BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

The hourly weather forecast has the colder version. At start time it's showing 39°F with the winds east at 6 mph.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature in the 40s°F and a stronger north-northeast wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 45°F and wind at 12 mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 46°F
Precip 20%
Wind: ENE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 70%
Mostly Cloudy


For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 20%
Wind: ENE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Cloudy


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 44°F RealFeel®: 35°F
Rain
Winds NE at 15 mph with gusts to 21

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 57°F RealFeel®: 53°F
Cloudy
Winds NE at 12 mph with gusts to 21