Thursday, January 27, 2011

M-3 Forecasts

I can't believe I'll be heading up to Houston to pick up my packet at the Expo tomorrow.

The forecasts look worse again today. There's still a chance for decent conditions (lower 50s, wind not too strong, and light or no rain), but there's also a chance of warm, humid, rainy, and windy. Frank Billingsly just gave the good forecast on the 10PM Channel 2 news.

The hourly weather forecast looks worse today. At start time it's showing temperature and the dewpoint at 56°F with the winds south at 8 mph, and 10AM shows temperature up to 61°F and the dewpoint at 58°F with the winds southwest at 10 mph.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature in the 60s°F, rain ending, and a lighter west wind. The text versions of the MRF model. show temperatures near or above 60°F and dewpoints in the upper 50s°F.

The 84-hour ETA model now includes marathon Sunday [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature and dewpoint at or above 60°F, rain, and a south wind over 10mph. Not good.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 57°F
Precip 50%
Wind: S 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 84%
Scattered T-Storms

For Sunday they show:
High 68°F
Precip 50%
Wind: S 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 80%
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Scattered T-Storms

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their hourly forecast. They're still raising their temperature predictions but it's not too bad:
7AM, Jan 30
57°F RealFeel®: 53°F
Dewpoint 52°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SW at 9 mph

10AM, Jan 30
59°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Dewpoint 54°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds WSW at 8

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