2011: Not My Year

I haven't posted anything in months. 2011 has not been a good year for me. The Houston Marathon weather was a little too warm and humid for me and I ran a poor race. I was starting to put together some better training but then pulled my hamstring in April. I came back to run the Corpus Christi relay in May, but the heat and humidity of another record-breaking summer had already taken over any chance of decent running. Just as the first cooler mornings of September seemed within reach, I wrecked my car on the way home from work. I was traveling about 65 mph down Texas 36 and smashed into someone making a left turn onto the highway. My old car didn't have an air bag and I hit the steering wheel hard with my chest. It was pretty scary hearing the hospital emergency room announcing a trauma code after my triage. But the CT scans showed nothing was broken.
Nuke aside: The radiation dose from the CT scans was nearly half of my lifetime occupational radiation dose. I've been a radiation worker in nuclear power for over thirty years.
I expected the accident recovery to be similar to a marathon recovery. But after a week, I still couldn't take a deep breath and it hurt to just lie down in bed. After three to four weeks, I was finally able to start running seriously again. But a few weeks ago I tripped over an uneven concrete joint in the sidewalk near the bridge over the bayou. It was a stumbling fall, but I hit my left knee hard on the concrete. I ran a half mile home and found my left sock was soaked in blood and most of the skin was off my left kneecap. I didn't mind the wound much but the knee started hurting in the joint when I tried to run a couple days later. I don't know if I hurt the joint when my knee hit the concrete or if the stumble strained the knee. Regardless, I've had to take another couple weeks off.
I missed the 10-mile race because of the car accident, the half marathon because of the knee injury, and now the 25K...26.21875K...is next week. I'm overweight and out of shape. My longest run this fall has been 9 miles. And the nuke plant is in a refueling outage that has been eating up every weekend. I doubt I'll be able to run the 25K, er 26.21875K.
I neglected to register early for the 2012 Houston Marathon, assuming I would have plenty of time before the veterans deadline. But that deadline was November 1. So I guess I'm already out of Houston 2012. I would like to get in decent enough shape to race the 30K in December. But who knows.

Hamstring Injury...Why?

The pulled left hamstring was the worst injury I've had since December 2005. What happened?

The first hamstring pain on April 17th was completely out of the blue. I'd been dealing with some little niggles from my left knee and right Achilles tendon, but up until that Sunday afternoon I hadn't felt anything unusual from a hamstring. And then, Bam, less than two miles into a relatively easy run I had a sharp pain that convinced me to walk home. After a week of rest I tried running the next Sunday, but again before I'd run two miles, the sharp pain returned to the back of my left leg. I was frustrated enough to push the pain and run most of the way home. That stupid decision clearly led to a two and a half week layoff. But what happened to start the hamstring problem the week before?

I'd been running 50 to 60 miles a week through February and March, but a refueling outage at the nuke plant cut back training time so I was down to the mid-40s for the three weeks before the hamstring problem appeared. I was working on speeding up the Tuesday morning tempo-run. The run on April 5th was within a half second of my fastest Tuesday tempo of 2011 from early in March. April 12th was much warmer but the Tuesday tempo was only a little slower. I'd also added some strides, usually on Wednesday morning. I don't normally run strides, but I hadn't been doing any interval training and I was hoping the faster turnover during the strides would help in the shorter Spring races. I was doing four strides, after running two to four miles. The strides were gradual buildups over about 100 meters (I was just using street lights), accelerating up to a sprint and holding that pace for about 20 to 30 meters. At the time, I thought it was a conservative approach.

I never had any leg problems during the strides, but in retrospect they seem to be the most likely initiator of the hamstring injury. Strides are pretty traditional training, but next time I think I'll add 800s or 400s before I start running fast strides.

Not a Good Absence

I haven't posted anything in a long time. My left hamstring flared up less than two miles into a Sunday long run in the middle of April. I took a full week off and again just before i'd run two miles, the left hamstring started hurting again. Instead of walking home, I ran most of the way. That was enough to aggravate the hamstring even more and it hurt even walking the next day. After another two weeks off, I think I'm finally past the hamstring problem. But the weather has turned to our normal oppressive heat and humidity.

The nuke plant changed it's internet policy. Among the many new restrictions on blogs and social media, I'm not allowed to post any pictures of the plant or coworkers, link to the plant's external website, or even mention the name of the plant or the operating company. There goes the nuke runner blog.

Some Inspiration

With all the problems in Japan, I needed something like this:



Here's the race with the original commentary:

Mud Bugs

Where I grew up, we could catch crayfish in the pond with a chicken bone on a string. Down here, the "mud bugs" literally live in the mud. Here are some crayfish chimneys along the running trail:






Here's a view of the water oaks along the trail:




Other than some nice vacation days running on the trail, it hasn't been a good week for nukes.


There's an "organic crawfish" farm on the road to the nuke plant:

A New Training Log

I filled the last entry in my training log Sunday. Inspired by KG and double-d here are thirteen years of running, dating back to November 23rd, 1998.

I wish I kept a log back in high school and college.

A Successor to Paula Radcliffe?

Paula Radcliffe has dominated woman's long distance running. Of the five fastest marathons, she's run four of them. Nobody is within three minutes of her PR.
But Mary Keitany might be her successor. She set a world record half marathon in the UAE and on the way set records in most of the standard race distances starting at 8K. 8K! Racing an 8K is very different from a half marathon, but she set world records at 8K, 10M, and 20K! Her half marathon time is 1:05:50.
It will be interesting to see what she does in London this year.

Mary Keitany finished third at NYC.

MEB, An American Champion

Too bad Ryan Hall is the only American male getting a big appearance fee to run the Boston Marathon and Meb is shut out.

3:02

The rain wasn't bad but it was a little too warm and humid for me. I started out too aggressively (6:43s) and crashed and burned for a 3:02.

Here's the final story on the weather:
Hobby Airport
0653 64F, dewpoint 60F, Mostly Cloudy, wind East 3 mph
0753 64F, dewpoint 60F, Light Rain, wind SouthEast 5 mph
0853 65F, dewpoint 61F, Light Rain, wind South 6 mph
0953 66F, dewpoint 62F, Light Rain, wind South 9 mph
1053 67F, dewpoint 63F, Overcast, wind South 8 mph
1153 67F, dewpoint 64F, Light Rain, wind South 10 mph with gusts to 18

No thunderstorms during the race, but we did have a big thunderstorm at home in LJ near the Gulf, with over an inch of rain in a few minutes.


The award for the best forecast goes to the raw computer models. The models first identified the incoming low pressure and its effect on moisture levels and were closest to the actual temperatures. The 84-hour ETA/NAM was remarkably close.
The worst forecast? That one has to go to Frank Billingsley. His forecast for low 50s was way off the mark.

M-2 Expo Day

The Expo is on the first floor of the GR Brown this year, with the entrance at the south end of the building (Hall E). I hope I can still get my secret parking spot.

The Houston Chronicle's Dale Robertson wrote an excellent article about HeidyL yesterday.

Why the obsession over the weather? I think it's interesting (yes nukes are easily amused). Weather systems and the atmosphere are incredibly complex and dynamic. The forecasts aren't always right and often change, but I'm amazed at how much computer modeling has improved over the last few years.
But why race day weather? It's true we have no control over the weather and everyone will race under the same conditions. But only a select handful of elites will be competing against others. We will be running against ourselves. Whether it's a 40°F wind-free day or it's warm, humid, and windy, running over 26 miles will be a difficult, painful struggle. But when you're running fast, faster than you've ever run before, it's a good pain.

The NWS forecaster's discussion is filled with cryptic jargon, but there will be some rain Sunday morning. Z time is UTC (coordinated universal time or Greenwich mean time), so the 7AM race start is at 13Z.
SOUTHERN BRANCH BRINGING CIRRUS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOST OF THE MORNING. A VERY PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP. UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL START MOVING EAST AND WILL TAP INTO RATHER RICH GULF MOISTURE SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY AND THEN LL MOISTURE RAMPS UP QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKING WET AS 1-1.4" PW ARRIVE WITH THE S/W SWEEPING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE...HIGH POPS ARE IN ORDER. MODERATE WAA IN PLACE...INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIM BUT LI OF 0 TO -2 POSSIBLE/CAPE LESS THAN 400 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS...GFS HITS THE NORTHERN CWA HARD AROUND 06Z SUN...ECMWF NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST 06-15Z (AND WITH BETTER INSTABILITY) AND THE NAM CENTRAL 8-18Z. IN THIS FORECAST HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING AND LIKELY BY 10 AM FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL HAVE SHRA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.


The hourly weather forecast looks worse again today. At start time it's showing temperature at 59°F and the dewpoint at 58°F with the winds south at 7 mph, and 10AM shows temperature up to 63°F and the dewpoint at 59°F with the winds south-southwest at 8 mph. But it does show the heavier rain ending by 6AM.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature in the 60s°F, rain ending, and a southwest wind at 6 mph. The text versions of the MRF model. show temperatures above 60°F and dewpoints in the upper 50s°F to 60°F.



The 84-hour ETA model now includes marathon Sunday [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature and dewpoint at or above 60°F, rain, and a south wind going over 10mph. Not good.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Sunday they show:
7AM 59°F, feels like 58°F
Chance of Rain 50%
Wind: S 7 mph
Humidity: 96%
Scattered T-Storms
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT

8AM 60°F, feels like 59°F
Chance of Rain 20%
Wind: S 8 mph
Humidity: 96%
Mostly Cloudy

9AM 61°F, feels like 61°F
Chance of Rain 20%
Wind: S 8 mph
Humidity: 96%
Mostly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their hourly forecast. They're still raising their temperature predictions but it's not too bad:
7AM, Jan 30
58°F RealFeel®: 56°F
Dewpoint 56°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 6 mph

8AM, Jan 30
59°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Dewpoint 57°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 6 mph

9AM, Jan 30
62°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Dewpoint 58°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 7 mph

10AM, Jan 30
64°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Dewpoint 58°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 7 mph

11AM, Jan 30
63°F RealFeel®: 63°F
Dewpoint 57°F
Rain
Winds SW at 8 mph

M-3 Forecasts

I can't believe I'll be heading up to Houston to pick up my packet at the Expo tomorrow.

The forecasts look worse again today. There's still a chance for decent conditions (lower 50s, wind not too strong, and light or no rain), but there's also a chance of warm, humid, rainy, and windy. Frank Billingsly just gave the good forecast on the 10PM Channel 2 news.


The hourly weather forecast looks worse today. At start time it's showing temperature and the dewpoint at 56°F with the winds south at 8 mph, and 10AM shows temperature up to 61°F and the dewpoint at 58°F with the winds southwest at 10 mph.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature in the 60s°F, rain ending, and a lighter west wind. The text versions of the MRF model. show temperatures near or above 60°F and dewpoints in the upper 50s°F.



The 84-hour ETA model now includes marathon Sunday [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature and dewpoint at or above 60°F, rain, and a south wind over 10mph. Not good.



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 57°F
Precip 50%
Wind: S 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 84%
Scattered T-Storms


For Sunday they show:
High 68°F
Precip 50%
Wind: S 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 80%
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Scattered T-Storms


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their hourly forecast. They're still raising their temperature predictions but it's not too bad:
7AM, Jan 30
57°F RealFeel®: 53°F
Dewpoint 52°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SW at 9 mph

10AM, Jan 30
59°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Dewpoint 54°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds WSW at 8

M-4 2011 Houston Marathon Weather Guessing

I just finished the last real workout before the marathon: five miles overall and three miles at marathon pace on the track. The weather was beautiful, cool and dry and the sky filled with stars.
I wish I could say the same for Sunday's forecast. The latest NWS discussion talks about the marathon:

LOOKING AHEAD...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS ARE INCREASINGLY FAVORING LOTS OF HUMIDITY AND PERIODS OF MODERATE SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING...NOT THE MOST OPTIMUM CONDITIONS FOR THE HOUSTON MARATHON.


The hourly weather forecast looks better today with decent temperatures through 10AM. At start time it's showing temperature at 52°F and the dewpoint at 50°F with the winds south at 9 mph, and 10AM shows temperature up to 58°F but the dewpoint at 52°F with the winds south-southeast at 13 mph.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature in the 50s°F, rain ending, and a fairly strong east wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 53°F and wind at 8 mph in the morning.



The 84-hour ETA model now includes 6AM marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature and dewpoint near 60°F and a SSE wind at 8mph.



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 53°F
Precip 40%
Wind: SE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 802%
Showers


For Sunday they show:
High 65°F
Precip 40%
Wind: SE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 802%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Scattered T-Storms


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 1 to 5 day forecast. They're still raising their temperature predictions:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 50°F RealFeel®: 47°F
Considerable Cloudiness
Winds SE at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 63°F
Mostly Cloudy, chance of a little rain
Winds ESE at 11 mph with gusts to 18

Uh-Oh M-5 2011 Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

Yesterday afternoon, the forecasts all had significant rises in predicted temperatures for Sunday. The GFS model is looking pretty bad (at least for a cold-weather person like me) with dewpoints at and above 60°F. Fortunately we shouldn't see extremely high dewpoints because water temperatures in the near-Gulf are in the 50s now and shouldn't heat up much during the week with more cool weather. But if the dewpoint is near 60°F Sunday, I'll need to slow my pace by at least 10 to 15 seconds per mile. Today's NWS discussion still has high uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

FLAT/BRIEF RIDGE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT/WEDS WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THURS TO KEEP TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO SIG-NIFICANT POPS WITH THIS FROPA AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW WITH NO ONSHORE WINDS IN THE INTERIM. HOWEVER THINGS PROGGED TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS AOA THE CA BAJA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING W/SWLY WINDS ALOFT AS FLOW AT THE SFC LOOKS TO DRAW A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF. SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE EX-TENDED WITH ECMWF RUNNING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN GFSLR AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAN MORE TO A SLOWER TIMING AS THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN WONT TO DO.

The hourly weather forecast shows decent temperatures up until about 9AM. At start time it's showing 51°F with the winds south at 7 mph, but 10AM shows temperature and dewpoint at 60°F with the south wind up to 10 mph. Five days out, you can't rely on an hour!

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature near 60°F, rain and a wind shift from a south wind to a northwest wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 56°F and wind at 9 mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 53°F
Precip 40%
Wind: SSE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
Showers


For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 30%
Wind: SSE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Few Showers


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 53°F RealFeel®: 51°F
Cloudy most of the time with a couple of showers
Winds SSW at 13 mph with gusts to 21

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 63°F RealFeel®: 62°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds NW at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Back to the Old Finish and Questionable Weather

The marathon course has a slight change this year. The downtown finish is back to the one used several years ago, with a straight shot through downtown and a quick left turn to finish in front of the GRB. I like it better than weaving through downtown and then that very long straightaway down Rusk to the north end of the GRB.
Here are the certification sketch and details:



Uncertainty about the timing of a cold front next weekend remains the big weather story. Today's NWS discussion highlights the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

WILL SEE A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT ON THURS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE FRI. LOW FCST CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT POINT. GFS STILL SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AND SHOW AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THRU THE WEEKEND. LEFT THE FCST AS-IS BEYOND FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TEMPS COULD BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

The hourly weather forecast has the colder version. At start time it's showing 39°F with the winds east at 6 mph.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature in the 40s°F and a stronger north-northeast wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 45°F and wind at 12 mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 46°F
Precip 20%
Wind: ENE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 70%
Mostly Cloudy


For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 20%
Wind: ENE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Cloudy


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 44°F RealFeel®: 35°F
Rain
Winds NE at 15 mph with gusts to 21

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 57°F RealFeel®: 53°F
Cloudy
Winds NE at 12 mph with gusts to 21

Week 17

Here's my seventeenth week of training for Houston '11:

69 miles for the week (January 17th to 23rd)

M: 12 at 7:07 mpm, 50ºF at 5AM went to work late after working late Sunday night
Tu: 7¼ at 8:27 mpm, 60ºF at 3:45AM
W AM: 7¼ at 7:00 mpm, 48ºF at 4AM
W PM: 5¼ overall average 7:01 with 3x1Mile/440rec (Miles in 5:58, 5:56, and 5:52), 57ºF at 7PM
Th: 6¾ at 8:15 mpm, 59ºF at 4AM
F: 10 at 6:57 mpm, 44ºF at 2PM
Sa: 7½ at 8:09 mpm, 53ºF at 2PM
Su: 13 at 7:00mpm, 64ºF at 1PM

I was happy with Wednesday's mile repeats until I saw I ran the same workout a couple years ago with the miles at 5:48.

There is some question now about the timing of the cold front next weekend. Today's NWS discussion talks about the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature about 50°F and a light south-southeast wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 49°F and wind at 8mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 44°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 70%
Scattered Showers


For Sunday they show:
High 61°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNE 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 59%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Scattered Showers


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 39 °F RealFeel®: 35°F
Cloudy
Winds NNE at 11mph with gusts to 17

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 56°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 25

Tracking the Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

The forecasts are starting to get meaningful now. Today's NWS discussion talks about the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

THIS DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE CARRYING SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S COLD FRONT. WHEN IT DOES MOVE THROUGH (WENT WITH A SATURDAY NIGHT PASSAGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE)...WE WILL SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE MONTH AND THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature about 40°F and a light north wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 44°F and stronger winds (10mph) in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NNW 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy


For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 0%
Wind: N 11 mph
Max. Humidity: 53%
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Sunny


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 31 °F RealFeel®: 24 °F
Mostly clear
Winds NNW at 12mph with gusts to 27

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 55°F RealFeel®: 52°F
Cooler with plenty of sun
Winds N at 11 mph with gusts to 26

M-10 Forecast

The GFS 16-day model still looks decent with the temperature in the 30sºF and a moderate North wind.


It doesn't look as good now at Accuweather:

Saturday Night:
Low 51ºF, Rain, Wind South at 8 mph with Gusts to 22
Sunday
High 69ºF, Showers, Wind South-SouthEast at 8 with Gusts to 20
The Global Forecast System 16-day model doesn't show anything above 50ºF near January 30th in Houston. I don't know how Accuweather is coming up with that forecast, but I would not like running the marathon in that weather.

The Weather Channel's forecast is closer to the GFS model, but still has some showers and is warmer:

Saturday Night:
Low 43ºF, Showers (60%), Wind East at 6 mph
Sunday
High 62ºF, Partly Cloudy, Wind North-NorthEast at 10

Bad Week to Be a Nuke Runner

It was a tough week at the nuke plant and that meant training suffered.
Here's my sixteenth week of training for Houston '11:

51 miles for the week (January 10th to 16th)

M AM: 6¾ at 8:35 mpm, 44ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 8¾ at 7:16 mpm, 41ºF at 3:30AM
W AM: 5¾ at 8:13 mpm, 32ºF at 4AM
W PM: missed
Th: 7¼ at 7:05 mpm, 36ºF at 4AM
F: 12½ at 7:14 mpm, 56ºF at 4PM
Sa: 10 at 8:22 mpm, 64ºF at 10AM
Su: missed


I had to work late Wednesday and missed Wednesday evening's track work. That really messes up the week's schedule. I decided to run hard Thursday morning, hoping to complete a hard day before an easy day Friday and a local 10K Saturday morning. I was supposed to evaluate a test at the nuke plant Friday, but it was delayed, so I squeezed in a medium long run late Friday afternoon, giving up on the 10K race. I ended up working all of Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning and then headed back to the plant again Sunday evening, completely missing the last long run before Houston.

The weather forecast for January 30 is a little worse now, same low temperature near 40, but now a north wind near 10 mph:


AccuWeather's forecast is similar to the model, but with a lower, more easterly wind.

Another Houston Marathon Weather Forecast

The long range weather forecast still looks very good (near 40 at the start and no wind):


The only problem is it's a long range forecast.

First Forecast

Here is the first forecast for January 30, Houston Marathon Day:


This one looks good with the temperature near 40 and the wind less than 6mph, but you know it will change.

I found the old elevation map Runner Triathlete News made when the marathon changed to the new course (with the Heights):


My week hasn't been too good. I came home from the power plant too late and missed another Wednesday evening track workout. Now I'm not sure whether I'll have to work during Saturday morning's race at Surfside.

Here's the starting list for the USATF Half Marathon Championship; looks like a good field:

Open Men's Half Marathon Championship
Abdi Abdirahman Nike
Austin Baillie unattached
Brock Baker unattached
Matt Barrett unattached
Brennan Benkert unattached
David Berdan Keystone Track Club
Fasil Bizuneh New Balance
Kyle Brady unattached
Trent Briney unattached
Warren Brown unattached
Daniel Browne U.S. Army
Ian Burrell unattached
Gian-Paul Caccia New York Athletic Club (NYAC)
Michael Chavez unattached
Robert Cheseret unattached
Joe Driscoll ZAP Fitness
Josh Eberly Brooks
Jeffrey Eggleston unattached
Jimmy Elam unattached
Chris Erichsen unattached
Donovan Fellows unattached
Jason Finch unattached
Matthew Folk unattached
Matthew Forys New York Athletic Club (NYAC)
Kenneth Foster U.S. Army
David Fuentes unattached
Matthew Gabrielson Team USA Minnesota / Reebok
Gus Gibbs River City Rebels
Dan Greeno unattached
Jason Griffiths unattached
Paul Guevara The Georgetown Running Company
Ryan Hall Asics
Nick Hird unattached
Paul Jellema unattached
Bryant Jensen Utah Elite
Leo Kormanik Atlanta Track Club
Roland Lavallee New Balance Boston
Jason Lehmkuhle Team USA Minnesota / Saucony
Craig Leon unattached
Scott MacPherson unattached
Tyler McCandless unattached
Joshua Moen Team USA Minnesota
Mike Morgan Hansons-Brooks Distance Project
Jose Munoz unattached
Skyler Nesheim unattached
Kenyon Neuman unattached
David Nightingale unattached
Miguel Nuci unattached
Oscar Ogwaro unattached
Jason Ordway unattached
Joshua Ordway unattached
Justin Patananan unattached
Joshua Perrin unattached
Kevin Pool River City Rebels
John Poray unattached
Eric Rasmussen Team Nebraska Brooks
Christopher Reis unattached
Bobby Reyes unattached
Sergio Reyes unattached
Patrick Rizzo unattached
Mikhail Sayenko Club Northwest
Patrick Smyth Nike
Erik Stanley unattached
Daniel Tapia unattached
Jorge Torres Reebok
Mohamed Trafeh Nike
Juan Carlos Trujillo Bowerman Athletic Club
Ryan Vail Brooks
Brent Vaughn Nike
Justin Young unattached

Open Women's Half Marathon Championship
Lindsay Allen McMillan Elite
Ann Alyanak RUNOHIO Racing Team / Brooks
Sarah Bashinski-Flament RUNOHIO Racing Team / Infinite Running
Addie Bracy unattached
Serena Burla RIADHA
Kelly Calway U.S. Army
Dawn Charlier unattached
Kelly Chin unattached
Caitlin Chrisman unattached
Michelle Corrigan unattached
Abby Dean unattached
Esther Erb ZAP Fitness
Robyn Friedman unattached
Zoila Gomez unattached
Clara Grandt RIADHA
Amy Hastings Brooks
Jennifer Houck unattached
Nan Kennard unattached
Loretta Kilmer RIADHA
Magdalena Lewy Boulet Saucony
Kaci Lickteig Team Nebraska Brooks
Katie McGregor Team USA Minnesota / Reebok
Dot McMahan Hansons-Brooks Distance Project
Sally Meyerhoff unattached
Nina Miller unattached
Erin Moeller unattached
Tera Moody unattached
Kristen Nicolini Team USA Minnesota / Saucony
Ruth Perkins Club Northwest
Jackie Pirtle-Hall unattached
Emily Potter U.S. Army
Danielle Quatrochi unattached
Jennifer Rhines adidas
Lindsey Scherf unattached
Cassandra Slade unattached
Kara Storage RUNOHIO Racing Team / Infinite Running
Tara Storage RUNOHIO Racing Team / Infinite Running
Leah Thorvilson unattached
Kayte Tranel Team Nebraska Brooks
Heidi Westover unattached
Caroline White U.S. Air Force
Melissa White Hansons-Brooks Distance Project
Kelly Williamson unattached
Heather Wood unattached

Finally Some sub-MP Running

Here's my fifteenth week of training for Houston '11:

84¾ miles for the week (January 3rd to January 9th)

M AM: 6¾ at 8:29 mpm, 42ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 9½ at 7:13 mpm, 62ºF at 3:30AM
W AM: 7¼ at 7:38 mpm, 72ºF at 4AM
W PM: 7 at an average pace of 7:02 with 6x1,200/400rec (1,200s at 4:32, 4:31, 4:30,4:30, 4:29, and 4:25), 57ºF at 7PM
Th AM: 6¼ at 8:28 mpm, 51ºF at 4AM
Th PM: missed
F: 15 at 7:10 mpm, 70ºF at 3PM
Sa: 10¾ at 8:37 mpm, 58ºF at 2PM
Su: 22¼ at 7:31 mpm, 53ºF from 2PM

At least I finally ran a speed workout. The 1,200s weren't fast at all, but I'm happy to have finished them. I've been worried about the stress of running that fast on the track (my left knee still gives some occasional niggles) but there were no problems. I used my old Saucony Fastwitches; they still feel good with over 600 miles on them.
Just three more weeks before Houston.

Another Frustrating Week

Here's my fourteenth week of training for Houston '11:

84½ miles for the week (December 27th to January 2nd)

M: 12½ at 8:22 mpm, 54ºF at 2PM (day off from work)
Tu: 7¾ at 7:28 mpm, 61ºF at 4AM
W AM: 7¼ at an average of 7:25 mpm, 66ºF at 4AM
W PM: missed
Th: 10¼ at 7:19 mpm, 67ºF at 3:30AM
F: 15 at 7:48 mpm, 72ºF at 4PM
Sa: 10¼ at 9:10 mpm, 57ºF at 6PM
Su: 21½ at 7:18 mpm, 53ºF from 2PM

I messed up again this week with four days of fairly hard runs in a row, but missing the interval session again. I had planned on running the track Wednesday evening but never made it. So I got up early Thursday morning to put in some more miles. But that left me dragging on a warm and humid Friday. At least Sunday's long run wasn't too bad.