T-5 &M-7 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guessing

Well we can check floods and tornados of the list for this week. The NWS discussion still indicates some real Canadian air will finally be coming down to the Gulf, but there is more uncertainty today about race weekend:
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD DAY THU WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS HAVE NO AGREEMENT WHAT SO EVER. GFS NOW DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT SAT WHICH HAS CHANGED ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND HAS NO CONSISTENCY. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF OR BASICALLY KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GOING. DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF A FREEZE FRI MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND CALM WINDS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs but with a much stronger east-northeast wind for the OTs and the chance of some light rain. Sunday morning starts much colder, in the 30s but with a very light north wind, a chance of light rain and still very little warmup during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a much colder low of 32°F with the wind at 12 mph Saturday morning and a low of 392°F and winds at 13 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It now shows a warmer morning low temperature at 39°F, dew point at 33°F, and a southwest wind at 6 mph. At 10AM, it shows 46°F, dew point at 34°F, and a southwest wind at 5 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 43°F, dew point at 39°F, and a north wind at 3 mph and at 10AM, it shows 51°F, dew point at 42°F, and a east wind at 6 mph. I would call both days "no excuses" running conditions.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 10%
Wind: E 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
Mostly Clear


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 43°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNW 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 79%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 77%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 39°F RealFeel®: 35°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 9 mph with gusts to 14

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 45°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Rain
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Today's video for the men's OT race is Dathan Ritzenhein

Watch more video of NYRR Dash to the Finish Line (5K) 2011 on flotrack.org

Today's video for the woman's OT race is the pre-race favorite, Shalane Flanagan