Wednesday, January 11, 2012

T-3 & M-4 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Forecast

The forecast continues to show more Gulf air coming in this weekend, but Marathon morning still looks good. But if the forecast keeps changing...?
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. A GRADUAL WARM UP CAN THEN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A WARMER RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF SETS UP. WILL CARRY 20% POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.


The 84-hour model has the temperature near 40°F but with nearly no wind for the OTs and no rain. The 7.5-day model has Sunday morning near 40 but with an increasing wind from the south and humidity increasing during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 34°F with the wind at 5 mph Saturday morning and a low of 39°F and winds at 5 mph Sunday morning.





The hourly forecast still shows a cooler morning low temperature at 35°F, dew point at 24°F, and a north wind at 2 mph. At 10AM, it shows 46°F, dew point at 25°F, and a east "wind" at 1 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 40°F, dew point at 40°F, and a south-southeast wind at 2 mph and at 10AM, it shows 50°F, dew point at 43°F, and a southeast wind at 6 mph. Saturday is still nearly perfect, and Sunday is still very good but if the trend keeps going, Sunday might get to a little warm and humid.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NW 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
Partly CLoudy


For Saturday they show:
High 63°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SW 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 42°F
Precip 0%
Wind: S 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 38°F RealFeel®: 37°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 5 mph with gusts to 8

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 62°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds ESE at 6 mph with gusts to 10

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 40°F RealFeel®: 41°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds SE at 5 mph with gusts to 9

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Partly Sunny
Winds SE at 7 mph with gusts to 13

Today's OT runner is Abdi Abdirahman from Tuscon. He's another bald guy I'll be cheering on Saturday.


And today's video is a summary of the top contenders by Runner's World:

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