No Excuses T-4 & M-5 OT and Houston Marathon Forecast

The forecast is showing some more Gulf air coming in Sunday and warming temperatures, but Marathon morning still looks very good.
CANADIAN COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE N PLAINS SHOULD PLUNGE SOUTH TOMORROW AND REACH SE TX WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM BUT THE 18Z NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THEM AS FAR AS FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD REACH AND PUSH OFF THE
COAST CLOSE TO 09Z THU. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY SO HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER SE TX THU NIGHT SO FRI MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SAT MORNING MIN TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL BUT WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS REACHING FREEZING. COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL HOLD ON FOR SAT SO KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT TODAY OVER THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. EXPECT OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE WHEN THIS LOW KICKS EAST ACROSS THE S ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW SOME RETURN FLOW LATE SUN INTO MON WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SHEARING OUT SYSTEM. GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM... BUT STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO INCLUDE 20 POPS ON MON FOR THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BE QUITE THE RAIN MAKER THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY ACROSS SE TX.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 30°Fs but with nearly no wind for the OTs and no rain. Sunday morning starts warmer, near 40 also with nearly no wind, and no rain but warming up with humidity increasing during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 32°F with the wind at 12 mph Saturday morning and a low of 35°F and winds at 7 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It now shows a cooler morning low temperature at 35°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-northwest wind at 3 mph. At 10AM, it shows 45°F, dew point at 28°F, and a west wind at 3 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 40°F, dew point at 33°F, and a west wind at 6 mph and at 10AM, it shows 50°F, dew point at 35°F, and a south-southwest wind at 6 mph. Both days are still "no excuses" running conditions.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 34°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NW 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 55%
Partly CLoudy


For Saturday they show:
High 62°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 39°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSW 2 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 65°F
Precip 10%
Wind: ESE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 34°F RealFeel®: 31°F
Clear
Winds SW at 6 mph with gusts to 13

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 62°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds NW at 10 mph with gusts to 17

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 41°F RealFeel®: 39°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds NE at 7 mph with gusts to 12

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 8 mph with gusts to 14

Here's some more of Hanson's-Brooks Desiree Davila and Mike Morgan training in the cold today.