Saturday, January 7, 2012

OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guesses T-7 & M-8

It's warm and humid again today, but the models still show a cold front arriving Tuesday and staying through next Monday. That's a long time for a cold front to hang around this winter. I wonder if it will really happen that way. The cold fronts this year seem to turn around in a day or two, and the warm Gulf air almost immediately raises temperatures and humidity. I think the forecast for the OTs is OK, but I'd be surprised if the cool weather hangs along through Sunday.

The 7.5-day model includes both races now. [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] The model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs with a very light north wind now. Sunday morning also starts in the 40s but with a little stronger east wind. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a low of 47°F and stronger winds (11mph) Saturday morning and a low of 39°F and stronger winds (13mph) Sunday morning.

The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs. It shows a colder morning low temperature at 40°F with a north wind at 8 mph.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 62%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Few Showers

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%
Mostly Clear

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 0%
Wind: N 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 63%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 43°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Winds E at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Partly CLoudy
Winds N at 5 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 44°F RealFeel®: 44°F
Winds SW at 6 mph with gusts to 16

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 58°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SSW at 8 mph with gusts to 22

It will be warmer than where these guys have been training.

I wouldn't be surprised if conditions were similar to where the Brooks/Hansons Group has been training.

Desiree looks good!


Anonymous said...

Glad to see your weather updates. I'd have missed them if you left them off the annual calendar!

Anonymous said...

Thanks a for posting the weather update. Today's weather was brutal and I hope it only gets better.

I hope cold front is not coming one day too soon. Frankly, I will be very happy with < 55 degrees for the whole run.

Are you gonna be pacing any groups this year?


Nuke Runner said...

I applied to pace the 3:30 group, but I wasn't selected. Knowing I wouldn't run the marathon this year, I rested almost all of December. I'm starting back up again, hoping to get in shape in time to run Boston in April.