2012 Olympic Trials and Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts T-1 & M-2

The forecast continues to show more Gulf air coming in this weekend, but the cold Canadian air that's in place seems strong enough to keep conditions very good both Saturday and Sunday.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE STATE...A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH THE COLDEST MODEL/MOS COMBINATION...THE GFS AND MAV...AND THEN TWEAKED SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST DOWNWARD. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME UPPER 20S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10... HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE BELOW 30 WILL EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 NORTHEAST OF METRO HOUSTON. MOST AREAS INLAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ONE MORE NIGHT.
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE GFS WAS TOO MOIST ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

The 84-hour model has the temperature near 40°F with a west-southwest wind below 6 mph for the OTs and no rain. The model has Sunday morning at 50°F a south wind at 4 mph and with increasing warmth and humidity during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a colder low of 38°F with the 'wind' at 1 mph Saturday morning and a low of 46°F and wind at 2 mph Sunday morning.





The hourly forecast still shows a cooler morning low temperature at 34°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-southwest 'wind' at 2 mph. At 10AM, it shows 45°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-southwest "wind" at 3 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 42°F, dew point at 39°F, and a south wind at 5 mph and at 10AM, it shows 52°F, dew point at 43°F, and a south-southeast wind at 8 mph. Saturday is still nearly perfect, and Sunday is still very good and the prediction hasn't warmed up to much from yesterday's forecast.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday they show:
8AM
41°F, Feels Like 38°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Humidity: 62%
Sunny

10AM
50°F, Feels Like 48°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 5 mph
Humidity: 46%
Sunny

For Sunday they show:

7AM
47°F, Feels Like 46°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSE 3 mph
Humidity: 77%
Cloudy

9AM
53°F, Feels Like 52°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSE 4 mph
Humidity: 71%
Cloudy

10AM
57°F, Feels Like 56°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSE 6 mph
Humidity: 67%
Cloudy

11AM
60°F, Feels Like 59°F
Precip 30%
Wind: SSE 9 mph
Humidity: 62%
Few Showers


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday, Jan 14
8AM
37°F RealFeel®: 39°F
Dew Point 24°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds WSW at 2 mph

10AM
49°F RealFeel®: 55°F
Dew Point 26°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds WSW at 3 mph

Accuweather has the wind picking up more during the day
Sunday, Jan 15

7AM
47°F RealFeel®: 41°F
Dew Point 40°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 7 mph

9AM
52°F RealFeel®: 46°F
Dew Point 43°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 11 mph

10AM
56°F RealFeel®: 51°F
Dew Point 45°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 13 mph


11AM
59°F RealFeel®: 54°F
Dew Point 47°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SSE at 15 mph

Here's Runner's World's review of the top men and the top women

Here's a video of Magdalena Lewy-Boulet:


And here's an interview with Deena:


And Mo Trafeh


and Amy Hastings:




MEN
1. 2:04:58 Ryan Hall (CA) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:09:13 Meb Keflezighi (CA) 2011 New York City Marathon
3. 2:10:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (OR) 2009 London Marathon
4. 2:10:36 Brett Gotcher (AZ) 2010 Houston Marathon
5. 2:11:06 Jason Hartmann (OR) 2010 Chicago Marathon
6. 2:11:30 Nick Arciniaga (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:11:46 Ed Moran (VA) 2011 New York City Marathon
8. 2:12:24 Jason Lehmkuhle (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon
9. 2:13:00 Jorge Torres (CO) 2009 New York City Marathon
10. 2:13:12 Jeffrey Eggleston (AZ) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
11. 2:13:28 Matthew Gabrielson (MN) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:13:47 Antonio Vega (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon


WOMEN
1. 2:22:38 Desiree Davila (MI) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:24:52 Kara Goucher (OR) 2011 Boston Marathon
3. 2:26:22 Magdalena Lewy Boulet (CA)2010 Fortis Marathon Rotterdam
4. 2:27:03 Amy Hastings (CA) 2011 LA Marathon
5. 2:28:40 Shalane Flanagan (OR) 2010 New York Marathon
6. 2:29:35 Stephanie Rothstein (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:29:54 Clara Grandt (WV) 2011 Boston Marathon
8. 2:30:51 Colleen De Reuck (CO) 2010 Copenhagen Marathon
9. 2:30:53 Tera Moody (CO) 2010 Chicago Marathon
10. 2:31:01 Katie McGregor (MN) 2010 New York City Marathon
11. 2:31:48 Dot McMahan (MI) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:31:49 Ilsa Paulson (NY) 2009 USA Women's Marathon Championships