Nowhere to Boston in 12 Weeks

I'm registered for the Boston Marathon and it will happen April 16th whether I'm ready or not. The left knee still doesn't feel right, but after three weeks of easy running, at least it hasn't gotten worse. I'm down to buying new shoes. My work shoes were completely worn out, so I have a new sturdier pair (you have to walk a couple miles a day at the nuke plant). I ordered a pair of Saucony Mirage running shoes, hoping they're similar to the old Tangents. We'll see how it goes.

For the Record

Conditions ended up being pretty good for both the 2012 Olympic Trials Marathon and the 2012 Houston Marathon.

For the 2012 Houston Marathon, conditions at Hobby Airport were:
10:53 wind SE 6 Vis 10 Mostly Cloudy 64°F 51°F dew point
09:53 wind SE 5 Vis 10 Mostly Cloudy 58°F 49°F dew point
08:53 wind SE 3 Vis 10 Mostly Cloudy 52°F 46°F dew point
07:53 Calm Vis 10 Mostly Cloudy 43°F 39°F dew point
06:53 Calm Vis 10 Partly Cloudy 39°F 36°F dew point

For the 2012 Olympic Trials, weather conditions at Hobby Airport were:
10:53 wind W 8 Vis 10 A Few Clouds 56°F 30°F dew point
09:53 wind W 8 Vis 10 A Few Clouds 51°F 33°F dew point
08:53 wind SW 5 Vis 10 A Few Clouds 44°F 34°F dew point
07:53 wind SW5 Vis 10 Partly Cloudy 35°F 29°F dew point

I took some pictures during the OT race and posted them here.

My camera isn't very good and the battery ran out, so several of these are from my phone.

2012 Olympic Trials and Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts T-1 & M-2

The forecast continues to show more Gulf air coming in this weekend, but the cold Canadian air that's in place seems strong enough to keep conditions very good both Saturday and Sunday.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE STATE...A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH THE COLDEST MODEL/MOS COMBINATION...THE GFS AND MAV...AND THEN TWEAKED SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST DOWNWARD. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME UPPER 20S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10... HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE BELOW 30 WILL EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 NORTHEAST OF METRO HOUSTON. MOST AREAS INLAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ONE MORE NIGHT.
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE GFS WAS TOO MOIST ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

The 84-hour model has the temperature near 40°F with a west-southwest wind below 6 mph for the OTs and no rain. The model has Sunday morning at 50°F a south wind at 4 mph and with increasing warmth and humidity during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a colder low of 38°F with the 'wind' at 1 mph Saturday morning and a low of 46°F and wind at 2 mph Sunday morning.





The hourly forecast still shows a cooler morning low temperature at 34°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-southwest 'wind' at 2 mph. At 10AM, it shows 45°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-southwest "wind" at 3 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 42°F, dew point at 39°F, and a south wind at 5 mph and at 10AM, it shows 52°F, dew point at 43°F, and a south-southeast wind at 8 mph. Saturday is still nearly perfect, and Sunday is still very good and the prediction hasn't warmed up to much from yesterday's forecast.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday they show:
8AM
41°F, Feels Like 38°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Humidity: 62%
Sunny

10AM
50°F, Feels Like 48°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 5 mph
Humidity: 46%
Sunny

For Sunday they show:

7AM
47°F, Feels Like 46°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSE 3 mph
Humidity: 77%
Cloudy

9AM
53°F, Feels Like 52°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSE 4 mph
Humidity: 71%
Cloudy

10AM
57°F, Feels Like 56°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSE 6 mph
Humidity: 67%
Cloudy

11AM
60°F, Feels Like 59°F
Precip 30%
Wind: SSE 9 mph
Humidity: 62%
Few Showers


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday, Jan 14
8AM
37°F RealFeel®: 39°F
Dew Point 24°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds WSW at 2 mph

10AM
49°F RealFeel®: 55°F
Dew Point 26°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds WSW at 3 mph

Accuweather has the wind picking up more during the day
Sunday, Jan 15

7AM
47°F RealFeel®: 41°F
Dew Point 40°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 7 mph

9AM
52°F RealFeel®: 46°F
Dew Point 43°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 11 mph

10AM
56°F RealFeel®: 51°F
Dew Point 45°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 13 mph


11AM
59°F RealFeel®: 54°F
Dew Point 47°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SSE at 15 mph

Here's Runner's World's review of the top men and the top women

Here's a video of Magdalena Lewy-Boulet:


And here's an interview with Deena:


And Mo Trafeh


and Amy Hastings:




MEN
1. 2:04:58 Ryan Hall (CA) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:09:13 Meb Keflezighi (CA) 2011 New York City Marathon
3. 2:10:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (OR) 2009 London Marathon
4. 2:10:36 Brett Gotcher (AZ) 2010 Houston Marathon
5. 2:11:06 Jason Hartmann (OR) 2010 Chicago Marathon
6. 2:11:30 Nick Arciniaga (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:11:46 Ed Moran (VA) 2011 New York City Marathon
8. 2:12:24 Jason Lehmkuhle (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon
9. 2:13:00 Jorge Torres (CO) 2009 New York City Marathon
10. 2:13:12 Jeffrey Eggleston (AZ) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
11. 2:13:28 Matthew Gabrielson (MN) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:13:47 Antonio Vega (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon


WOMEN
1. 2:22:38 Desiree Davila (MI) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:24:52 Kara Goucher (OR) 2011 Boston Marathon
3. 2:26:22 Magdalena Lewy Boulet (CA)2010 Fortis Marathon Rotterdam
4. 2:27:03 Amy Hastings (CA) 2011 LA Marathon
5. 2:28:40 Shalane Flanagan (OR) 2010 New York Marathon
6. 2:29:35 Stephanie Rothstein (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:29:54 Clara Grandt (WV) 2011 Boston Marathon
8. 2:30:51 Colleen De Reuck (CO) 2010 Copenhagen Marathon
9. 2:30:53 Tera Moody (CO) 2010 Chicago Marathon
10. 2:31:01 Katie McGregor (MN) 2010 New York City Marathon
11. 2:31:48 Dot McMahan (MI) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:31:49 Ilsa Paulson (NY) 2009 USA Women's Marathon Championships

Getting Close - Houston and OT Marathon

Here's a slick video of Jason Lehmkule and Team USA Minnesota:

Marathon Road from Paul Sanft on Vimeo.

The forecast continues to show more Gulf air coming in this weekend, but the cold Canadian air that arrived today seems strong enough to keep conditions very good both Saturday and Sunday.
WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOWN BY THE MODEL...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL THEN BEGIN LATER SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.
THE MODELS ARE THEN SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FORMS OVERHEAD AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


The 84-hour model has the temperature just above 40°F with a west wind at 6 mph for the OTs and no rain. The model has Sunday morning in the upper 40s a south wind less than 6 mph and with an increasing warmth humidity during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 34°F with the 'wind' at 1 mph Saturday morning and a low of 47°F and wind at 3 mph Sunday morning.





The hourly forecast still shows a cooler morning low temperature at 33°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west 'wind' at 1 mph. At 10AM, it shows 45°F, dew point at 27°F, and a west-southwest "wind" at 2 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 44°F, dew point at 36°F, and a east-southeast wind at 1 mph and at 10AM, it shows 53°F, dew point at 41°F, and a east-southeast wind at 7 mph. Saturday is still nearly perfect, and Sunday is still very good and the prediction hasn't warmed up to much from yesterday's forecast.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday they show:
8AM
41°F, Feels Like 39°F
Precip 0%
Wind: W 3 mph
Humidity: 62%
Sunny

10AM
50°F, Feels Like 49°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Humidity: 46%
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:

Overnight Low 425F
Precip 0%
Wind: S 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 68°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSE 9 mph
Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Mostly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 38°F RealFeel®: 37°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 5 mph with gusts to 8

Saturday, Jan 14
8AM
40°F RealFeel®: 41°F
Dew Point 23°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds SW at 2 mph

10AM
50°F RealFeel®: 56°F
Dew Point 25°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds SW at 3 mph


Sunday, Jan 15

7AM
47°F RealFeel®: 42°F
Dew Point 36°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds ESE at 7 mph

9AM
50°F RealFeel®: 47°F
Dew Point 38°F
Partly Sunny
Winds ESE at 8 mph

10AM
54°F RealFeel®: 53°F
Dew Point 39°F
Partly Sunny
Winds ESE at 8 mph


11AM
57°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Dew Point 39°F
Partly Sunny
Winds ESE at 8 mph

Here's Runner's World's review of the top men and the top women

Here's a video of Kara Goucher:


MEN
1. 2:04:58 Ryan Hall (CA) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:09:13 Meb Keflezighi (CA) 2011 New York City Marathon
3. 2:10:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (OR) 2009 London Marathon
4. 2:10:36 Brett Gotcher (AZ) 2010 Houston Marathon
5. 2:11:06 Jason Hartmann (OR) 2010 Chicago Marathon
6. 2:11:30 Nick Arciniaga (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:11:46 Ed Moran (VA) 2011 New York City Marathon
8. 2:12:24 Jason Lehmkuhle (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon
9. 2:13:00 Jorge Torres (CO) 2009 New York City Marathon
10. 2:13:12 Jeffrey Eggleston (AZ) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
11. 2:13:28 Matthew Gabrielson (MN) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:13:47 Antonio Vega (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon


WOMEN
1. 2:22:38 Desiree Davila (MI) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:24:52 Kara Goucher (OR) 2011 Boston Marathon
3. 2:26:22 Magdalena Lewy Boulet (CA)2010 Fortis Marathon Rotterdam
4. 2:27:03 Amy Hastings (CA) 2011 LA Marathon
5. 2:28:40 Shalane Flanagan (OR) 2010 New York Marathon
6. 2:29:35 Stephanie Rothstein (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:29:54 Clara Grandt (WV) 2011 Boston Marathon
8. 2:30:51 Colleen De Reuck (CO) 2010 Copenhagen Marathon
9. 2:30:53 Tera Moody (CO) 2010 Chicago Marathon
10. 2:31:01 Katie McGregor (MN) 2010 New York City Marathon
11. 2:31:48 Dot McMahan (MI) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:31:49 Ilsa Paulson (NY) 2009 USA Women's Marathon Championships

T-3 & M-4 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Forecast

The forecast continues to show more Gulf air coming in this weekend, but Marathon morning still looks good. But if the forecast keeps changing...?
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. A GRADUAL WARM UP CAN THEN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A WARMER RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF SETS UP. WILL CARRY 20% POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.


The 84-hour model has the temperature near 40°F but with nearly no wind for the OTs and no rain. The 7.5-day model has Sunday morning near 40 but with an increasing wind from the south and humidity increasing during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 34°F with the wind at 5 mph Saturday morning and a low of 39°F and winds at 5 mph Sunday morning.





The hourly forecast still shows a cooler morning low temperature at 35°F, dew point at 24°F, and a north wind at 2 mph. At 10AM, it shows 46°F, dew point at 25°F, and a east "wind" at 1 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 40°F, dew point at 40°F, and a south-southeast wind at 2 mph and at 10AM, it shows 50°F, dew point at 43°F, and a southeast wind at 6 mph. Saturday is still nearly perfect, and Sunday is still very good but if the trend keeps going, Sunday might get to a little warm and humid.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NW 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
Partly CLoudy


For Saturday they show:
High 63°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SW 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 42°F
Precip 0%
Wind: S 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 38°F RealFeel®: 37°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 5 mph with gusts to 8

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 62°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds ESE at 6 mph with gusts to 10

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 40°F RealFeel®: 41°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds SE at 5 mph with gusts to 9

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Partly Sunny
Winds SE at 7 mph with gusts to 13

Today's OT runner is Abdi Abdirahman from Tuscon. He's another bald guy I'll be cheering on Saturday.


And today's video is a summary of the top contenders by Runner's World:

No Excuses T-4 & M-5 OT and Houston Marathon Forecast

The forecast is showing some more Gulf air coming in Sunday and warming temperatures, but Marathon morning still looks very good.
CANADIAN COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE N PLAINS SHOULD PLUNGE SOUTH TOMORROW AND REACH SE TX WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM BUT THE 18Z NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THEM AS FAR AS FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD REACH AND PUSH OFF THE
COAST CLOSE TO 09Z THU. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY SO HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER SE TX THU NIGHT SO FRI MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SAT MORNING MIN TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL BUT WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS REACHING FREEZING. COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL HOLD ON FOR SAT SO KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT TODAY OVER THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. EXPECT OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE WHEN THIS LOW KICKS EAST ACROSS THE S ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW SOME RETURN FLOW LATE SUN INTO MON WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SHEARING OUT SYSTEM. GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM... BUT STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO INCLUDE 20 POPS ON MON FOR THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BE QUITE THE RAIN MAKER THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY ACROSS SE TX.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 30°Fs but with nearly no wind for the OTs and no rain. Sunday morning starts warmer, near 40 also with nearly no wind, and no rain but warming up with humidity increasing during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 32°F with the wind at 12 mph Saturday morning and a low of 35°F and winds at 7 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It now shows a cooler morning low temperature at 35°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-northwest wind at 3 mph. At 10AM, it shows 45°F, dew point at 28°F, and a west wind at 3 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 40°F, dew point at 33°F, and a west wind at 6 mph and at 10AM, it shows 50°F, dew point at 35°F, and a south-southwest wind at 6 mph. Both days are still "no excuses" running conditions.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 34°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NW 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 55%
Partly CLoudy


For Saturday they show:
High 62°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 39°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSW 2 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 65°F
Precip 10%
Wind: ESE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 34°F RealFeel®: 31°F
Clear
Winds SW at 6 mph with gusts to 13

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 62°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds NW at 10 mph with gusts to 17

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 41°F RealFeel®: 39°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds NE at 7 mph with gusts to 12

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 8 mph with gusts to 14

Here's some more of Hanson's-Brooks Desiree Davila and Mike Morgan training in the cold today.

T-5 &M-7 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guessing

Well we can check floods and tornados of the list for this week. The NWS discussion still indicates some real Canadian air will finally be coming down to the Gulf, but there is more uncertainty today about race weekend:
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD DAY THU WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS HAVE NO AGREEMENT WHAT SO EVER. GFS NOW DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT SAT WHICH HAS CHANGED ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND HAS NO CONSISTENCY. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF OR BASICALLY KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GOING. DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF A FREEZE FRI MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND CALM WINDS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs but with a much stronger east-northeast wind for the OTs and the chance of some light rain. Sunday morning starts much colder, in the 30s but with a very light north wind, a chance of light rain and still very little warmup during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a much colder low of 32°F with the wind at 12 mph Saturday morning and a low of 392°F and winds at 13 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It now shows a warmer morning low temperature at 39°F, dew point at 33°F, and a southwest wind at 6 mph. At 10AM, it shows 46°F, dew point at 34°F, and a southwest wind at 5 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 43°F, dew point at 39°F, and a north wind at 3 mph and at 10AM, it shows 51°F, dew point at 42°F, and a east wind at 6 mph. I would call both days "no excuses" running conditions.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 10%
Wind: E 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
Mostly Clear


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 43°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNW 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 79%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 77%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 39°F RealFeel®: 35°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 9 mph with gusts to 14

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 45°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Rain
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Today's video for the men's OT race is Dathan Ritzenhein

Watch more video of NYRR Dash to the Finish Line (5K) 2011 on flotrack.org

Today's video for the woman's OT race is the pre-race favorite, Shalane Flanagan

T-6 & M-7 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

Today's Men's OT video is Meb training in California.

I'll be cheering for Meb; we bald guys need to stick together.

It was warm and humid again today. The NWS discussion indicates some real Canadian air will finally be coming down to the Gulf, just in time for race weekend:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. LONG WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST BY 12Z THU. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z THU WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA BY FRI MORNING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THU AND THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA FRI. MAY HAVE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO PUSH BY THE AREA THU/FRI SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MODELS BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS ON DAY 8. LOOKS LIKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE AND FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs with a very light north wind for the OTs. Sunday morning starts warmer near 50 with a stronger east wind, a chance of rain and very little warmup during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a much colder low of 34°F and stronger winds (10 mph) Saturday morning and a low of 42°F and winds at 9 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It shows a colder morning low temperature at 34°F, dew point at 29°F, and a north-northeast wind at 7 mph. At 10AM, it shows 44°F, dew point at 31°F, and a northeast wind at 7 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 38°F, dew point at 36°F, and a east-northeast wind at 6 mph.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 37°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 69%
Partly Cloudy


For Saturday they show:
High 56°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 63%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 50%
Wind: NNE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 76%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 53°F
Precip 40%
Wind: NNE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Showers



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 36°F RealFeel®: 26°F
Clear
Winds N at 14 mph with gusts to 23

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 57°F RealFeel®: 55°F
Sunny
Winds NNW at 12 mph with gusts to 23

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 37°F RealFeel®: 33°F
Clear
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 19

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Cloudy
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 24

Today's video for the woman's OT race is Jen Rhines:

Watch more video of Jen Rhines on flotrack.org

Here are some projections for the OT race. I don't believe it's such a sure thing as theat poll would have you believe.

OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guesses T-7 & M-8

It's warm and humid again today, but the models still show a cold front arriving Tuesday and staying through next Monday. That's a long time for a cold front to hang around this winter. I wonder if it will really happen that way. The cold fronts this year seem to turn around in a day or two, and the warm Gulf air almost immediately raises temperatures and humidity. I think the forecast for the OTs is OK, but I'd be surprised if the cool weather hangs along through Sunday.

The 7.5-day model includes both races now. [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] The model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs with a very light north wind now. Sunday morning also starts in the 40s but with a little stronger east wind. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a low of 47°F and stronger winds (11mph) Saturday morning and a low of 39°F and stronger winds (13mph) Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs. It shows a colder morning low temperature at 40°F with a north wind at 8 mph.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 62%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Few Showers

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%
Mostly Clear

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 0%
Wind: N 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 63%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 43°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Cloudy
Winds E at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Partly CLoudy
Winds N at 5 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 44°F RealFeel®: 44°F
Clear
Winds SW at 6 mph with gusts to 16

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 58°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SSW at 8 mph with gusts to 22

It will be warmer than where these guys have been training.


I wouldn't be surprised if conditions were similar to where the Brooks/Hansons Group has been training.


Desiree looks good!

Olympic Trials Marathon and Houston Marathon Weather Forecast T-8 & M-9

It's warm and humid today, but the models still show near ideal conditions for next Saturday and Sunday.

The 7.5-day model includes Olympic Trials morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] with the temperature in the 40°Fs and a very light west wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 34°F and stronger winds (10mph) in the morning.



The 8.5-16 day model still shows marathon morning on Sunday. Today's model shows the warmup even later on Monday, with temperature in the 40°Fs and a light northeast wind.



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 40%
Wind: NNE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%
Showers


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NNE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 64%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 44°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 75%
Clear

For Sunday they show:
High 61°F
Precip 10%
Wind: S 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 32 °F RealFeel®: 32 °F
Clear
Winds NW at 5 mph with gusts to 10

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 58°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Sunny
Winds W at 6 mph with gusts to 19

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 38 °F
Clear
Winds WSW at 6 mph with gusts to 14

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Sunny
Winds SW at 9 mph with gusts to 23

2012 Olympic Trials Marathon and Houston Marathon T-10 & M-11 Weather Forecasts

I had more trouble with my knee and rested nearly all of December. The knee still doesn't feel right, but I'm trying to start running again to prepare for Boston. My running has been disappointing, but I'm still excited about the Olympic trials. The course is a little strange with lots of turns (way too many?), a little loop downtown and then three loops out to Shepherd and back to the GRB on Memorial and Allen Parkway. Here's a cute little animation showing the expected progression through the loops with the women's later start time.



It''s still early, but here's the forecast for the trials and the Houston Marathon.

The GFS 16-day model shows a nearly perfect Saturday for the trials with the temperature in the 40sºF and nearly no wind. Marathon Sunday looks more iffy, with a South wind and the dew point soaring from the 30s well into the 50s.


The forecast looks much worse at Accuweather:

Friday Night:
Low 43ºF, Shower late, Wind South at 6 mph with Gusts to 12
Saturday
High 69ºF, Rain, Wind South at 8 with Gusts to 21

Saturday Night:
Low 38ºF, Partly Cloudy, Wind West-Southwest at 10 mph with Gusts to 24
Sunday
High 51ºF, Sunny, Wind North-NorthWest at 19 with Gusts to 41!

The Weather Channel's forecast just goes up to Friday night. It agrees more with the 16-day GFS model:

Friday Night:
Low 40ºF, Partly Cloudy (0% Precipitation), Wind from North at 3 mph