Last Week's Training: Too Much Time at Work and a 10K Race

32¼ for the week

We were working a large pump and spent most of the weekend at the power plant.

M – 4¾ miles recovery, average pace 8:29 mpm, 53°F at 4AM and occasional light rain
Tu – 4¾ miles fairly hard, average pace 6:42 mpm, 47°F at 4AM overcast, felt really good
W – 4½ miles general, average pace 7:56 mpm, 45°F at 9PM
Th – slept through my 0350 alarm
F – beautiful day but I was stuck at the power plant
Sa – 7 with a 10K race at 6:24 mpm , 56°F with some occasional light rain
Su – 11¼, average pace 7:18 mpm, 54°F at 4PM sunny and nice

I was pretty disappointed with my performance in the 10K race. It’s tough to be happy when you run a slower pace in a 10K race than the pace you ran in a 30K race the month before. I'm going to have to get serious about running some more faster-pace workouts. I seem to breakdown every time I try to run faster than 6:20 miles.

Tuesday Tempo Run

Well it wasn't quite lactate threshold pace, but it was my first fast run since the marathon. I ran my "Dow Course", out from my house to the Dow Nature Preserve to FM 2004. I'm not sure how much of a nature preserve it is, but it does have a nice wide sidewalk, well removed from the street, and there are plenty of street lamps. It's 4¾ miles total and I have a split at 2 miles. It was 13:32 - 5:03 - 13:13 today. Everything feels good for the Angleton 10K this Saturday. My only worry is we're overhauling a large pump at the power plant and I might have to work Friday night and Saturday morning.

When is this rain going to stop?

Last Week's Training: Recovery

25¼ miles for the week

M – rest, 43°F at 4AM and raining, Arms and legs pretty sore
Tu – rest 35°F at 4AM more rain, arms are OK but still using the handrail to go down stairs
W – 3½ miles recovery, average pace 8:46 mpm, 39°F at 7PM with light rain, just a little soreness going downstairs
Th – rest, 38°F at 4AM, no soreness left
F – 4¼ easy, 7:59 mpm , 47°F at 5PM and occasional rain
Sa – 7½ easy, 8:03 mpm , 57°F at noon with some rain
Su – 10 easy, 8:02 mpm , 54°F at 2PM overcast but no rain

10th Houston Marathon, The Rest of the Story

This is still a work in progress, but I wanted to start getting some of the details down.

I didn't really know how to run this marathon. We had a very strong cold front predicted, but very warm and humid air in place. After running the very warm marathons of 1998, 1999, and 2000 I promised myself I would never race another marathon if the dewpoint was above 60 degrees. I was torn between saving myself for another marathon (New Orleans) or just running my best for the conditions and getting it done. On Saturday, the forecasts changed and predicted the cold front would arrive in time for the race. I decided then that I'd give the race my best shot regardless of the conditions.
At 5AM Sunday morning when I left my house near the coast, it was still in the upper 60s and foggy. But just a few miles inland it cooled down quite a bit and I was happy to turn on my car heater. I ate a couple pieces of toast and a banana and drank a quart of Gatorade on the drive up toward Houston. About 15 miles from Houston, I noticed several cars coming back the other direction; very strange for early on a Sunday morning. A couple of miles later, two Pearland police cars had the entire Nolan Ryan Expressway (Texas 288) blocked off and were forcing everyone to turn around. I was already running a little later than I planned and now the road's closed, arrrgh! I drove back a few miles to Texas 6 and headed up toward Sugarland. I was able to take the Fort Bend Parkway in to Beltway 8 and then pick up 288 again after a detour of about 15 minutes. I parked east of 59 and ran to the convention center. The convention center was already pretty crowded with runners and I went for the first Porta-can line I could find. By the time I made it through the line, I only had a few minutes to check my bag and head for the starting line.

I missed the Houston Marathon last year, so this was my first experience with the starting corrals. There seemed to be a pretty big bottleneck at the corral entrance and it wasn't very clear where each corral entrance was. Once I got in, though, it was a pretty clear walk up to the red corral. As I entered the back of the corral, there were several people lined up along the back fence relieving themselves. In 16 marathons, I've never had to resort to public urination (although the "World's Longest Urinal" at NYC was pretty close). But with the little time I had available this morning, I had to line up with the others. I worked my way up to a pretty good position near the front of the red corral, but as they pulled the barricades, everyone around me started jogging towards the elites while the people in front of me just strolled forward. By the time we bunched up again, I was about 15-20 heads back from the starting mats.


The Fun Race, Miles 1 through 9
1) 6:36 I tried hard to keep myself under control and avoid weaving around people at the start.
2) 6:27 - 13:03
3) 6:26 - 19:29
4) 6:34 - 26:03
5) 6:33 - 32:36
6) 6:21 - 38:57
10K in 40:27
7) 6:29 - 45:26
8) 6:30 - 51:55 Despite my hat, my glasses are covered with mist and fog. I catch a few glimpses of the elite half-marathoners speeding back up on the other side of the street. When the lead women came by I could see WillL on the press truck.
9) 6:30 - 58:25 I'm feeling pretty good and running by myself, passing the occasional half-marathoner.


The Race Suddenly Gets Tough, Miles 10 through 12

10) 6:38 - 1:05:02 The half marathoners have turned around and the course is much lonelier. I haven't had a problem with stomach cramps (side-ache) since High School, but just after passing the half-Marathon turnaround, I get some bad pain in the right part of my abdomen. I try changing my breathing and dropping my arms but it persists. The Museum/Rice University is one of my favourite parts of the course and I usually pick up the pace here, but not this year.
11) 6:45 - 1:11:47 As we turn onto University boulevard my forefoot keeps on slipping. My glasses are still foggy and I try looking under them to see if there is mud on the road. I try to run on each side of the road but my foot feels like it's slipping every time I try to toe-off. My stomach is still cramping and I'm not having much fun at all.
12)6:40 - 1:18:27 The footing improves as we leave the Live Oaks around Rice and enter the Village. The misty weather seems to have kept the crowds more sparse here than in years past.

Getting Back on Track, Miles 13 through 19
13)6:33 - 1:25:01 A wonderful woman was passing out tissues from her front yard in West University Place. Bless her! I was able to wipe off my glasses and my head cleared along with my vision. The stomach cramp went away too.
Half marathon in 1:25:43
14) 6:39 - 1:31:40
15) 6:47 - 1:38:27 I passed a wheelchair athlete struggling up the Westpark Overpass. She (?) sailed passed me on the downhill side and I worked my way back up to her and another woman runner along the 59 feeder. This helped make this boring part of the course go by pretty fast.
16-17) 13:23 - 1:51:50 I missed the mile 16 marker on Post Oak. I was passed by two guys running together with Tshirts and big baggy shorts. 18) 6:42 - 1:58:32
30K in 2:02:47
19) 2:05:12

The Real Race
20) 6:51 - 2:12:02 I was passed by Juan Carlos. He must've really torn it up on Allen Parkway because he finished almost two minutes ahead of me.
21) 6:52 - 2:18:54 I was able to work my way back up to the two guys running together. They helped pull me along through a few miles here. I heard Leno shout to me that I was on PR pace. I thought Leno was running the marathon, but he was right. I am on PR pace. That really gave me a lift.
22) 6:45 - 2:25:39 There were 3,000 small flags set up for the Iraqi war dead. The field of flags was very impressive, even through my mist and fog covered glasses. I thought of my son's friends who are gone; of the day in June when I knew there was one KIA and two DUSTWUN (captured) from my son's platoon and I spent all day in the driveway scraping paint off patio furniture so two in uniform couldn't knock on our door; and I thought of all of the runs over the past year that as I neared my house I'd look for a government car parked in the street. And I thought of how many other families are still going through this every day.
23) 6:49 - 2:32:28
24) 7:00 - 2:39:29
25) 6:51 - 2:46:20
26) 6:47 - 2:53:07
26.22) 1:25 - 2:54:33

I decided to go for 6:30 pace, hoping the predicted cooling through the day would hold. That forecast didn't pan out, but it wasn't bad. 55 degrees at the start with a 54 degree dewpoint and it warmed up to 59 degrees with a 57 degree dewpoint at the end. A little warm for a heavy-weight like me, but not too bad. If I'd known the dewpoint would be near 60 degrees, I probably wouldn't have tried to run 6:30 pace. But I'm glad I did. I gave this marathon my best effort. I think I can run faster, but I'm really happy to a run a marathon faster than I've ever run one before.

Houston Marathon Pictures and Video

Lots of pictures but the video seems to be focused more on the area in between the half finishers and the marathoners.

I really need to find some bandaids or tape that doesn't fall off when soaking wet (too embarrassing)!

Graphic of Houston Marathon Training

I thought this was a neat summary of my training for the marathon. It shows my slow recovery from last December's injury, lost running due to the unexpected death of my mother in law in August and for our trip to Fort Campbell to see my son return from Iraq. You can probably also see cutback weeks that just happened to coincide with the 10-miler, 25K and 30K races.



This is the graph of weekly mileage from the Excel spreadsheet log published by David Hays.

Last Week's Training: Taper and a Race

45 miles for the week

M – 4 miles, recovery 9:13 mpm, 43°F at 4AM very nice and starry morning
Tu – 4¾ recovery 8:19 mpm, 43°F at 4AM very nice
Tu PM - The Pfitz schedule had a double scheduled; not for me.
W – 5 overall average pace 7:27 mpm with a 2 mile goal MP run on the track (6:27-6:30), 57°F at 7PM
Th – 4¾ recovery 8:40 mpm , 60°F at 4AM
F – rest, pick up packet at the Expo, 67°F at 7AM
Sa – rest, 69°F at 7AM
Su – 26½ with 26.22 at 6:39.4 mpm overall average, 55°F to 59°F from 7 to 10AM with the dewpoint going from 54°F to 57°F, light NW wind and occasional fog/mist

Too Weird! Inside Texas Running Pictures

I think I know most of these people!


These are pictures on the Inside Texas Running Site
taken by Lance Phegley.

Indio!


Lauren from B'Wood High School


I don't know this big, old, ugly, bald guy with the soaked shorts.


SusieW


RichardP

Olympic Trials Hopefuls

I thought the Athlete Developement Program for the Olympic Trials qualifiers was pretty cool. The official lists (Women) (Men) haven't been updated yet.

The Press Release:
Fourteen athletes qualified for the U.S. Olympic Trials in Sunday’s race. In the marathon, five men broke the Olympic A standard by running under 2:20. Another five men qualified by running sub-2:22, the Olympic B standard. Four women qualified by beating the Olympic B standard of 2:47.

Here's what I dug from the results:
USADP Men
"A" Standard
MICHAEL RENEAU 2:17:46 Houlton WI
STEVE MEINELT 2:18:14 Washington DC
MIKE SMITH 2:19:43 Flagstaff AZ
RYAN MEISSEN 2:19:51 Whitewater WI
MATT HOOLEY 2:19:57 Madison WI

"B" Standard
ANDY MARTIN 2:20:16 Los Osos CA
MATTHEW FOLK 2:20:41 Canfield OH
MICHAEL FRIEDBERG 2:21:00 Flagstaff AZ
ROBERT CANNON 2:21:22 Toms River NJ


USADP Women
JENNA BOREN 2:42:39 Saint Paul MN
JUDY JOHNSON 2:44:2 Syracuse NY
CAITLIN TORMEY 2:45:02 New York NY
CARLY GRAYTOCK 2:45:02 Cambridge, MA



I'm not sure whether any of the other elites besides Sean Wade are eligible for the US Olympic Trials.
SEAN WADE 2:20:29

So close to the qualifying standard:
ADAM TRIBBLE 2:22:01 gun time and 2:22:00 chip, but they don't use chip time for OT qualifying! Fayetteville, AR
SAGE CANADAY 2:22:22 a Junior at Cornell (?) Sheridan, OR
MATTHEW ELY 2:22:29 Cambridge MA
Eric Hartmark, Duluth MN 2:23:23
Brendon Moody, Van Wert OH 2:23:44
Marty Dalton, Stuart IA 2:23:53
Jason Finch, River Falls WI 2:24:14
Ross Martinson, Conshohocken PA 2:24:45
Dale Dexter, Topeka KS 2:24:46
Brian Dumm, Goodfellow AFB TX 2:24:54
Cole Dailey, Rutherford NJ 2:25:22
Dane Mitchell, Flagstaff AZ 2:25:29
Christopher Knorzer, Rocklin CA 2:25:43
Brian Grudowski, Buffalo Grove IL 2:26:11
Marcus Murphy, Dubuque IA 2:26:26
Mark LaRosa, Melrose MA 2:26:39

Erin Ward, St. Paul, MN 2:48:18
Rachel Booth, Elmhurst,IL 2:51:18
Melissa Gacek, White Bear Lake, MN 2:52:45
Brandy Erholtz, Bailey, CO 2:53:05
Tara Gruskiewicz, Concord, OH 2:54:27


I'm not sure what the Canadian OT rules are:
Nik Southwell Victoria BC 2:25:11

A New PR in My Tenth Houston Marathon

OK, no whining allowed when you set a new PR. Especially if you're too old, too heavy and it's not a super day. So I'll try not to whine and give just the facts.

40:34 (NET) @ 10k, Pace 6:31, Predicted 2:50:51.
1:25:50 (NET) @ Half, Pace 6:32, Predicted 2:51:17
2:02:54 (NET) @ 30k, Pace 6:35, Predicted 2:52:36
2:54:39 (NET) @ finish, Pace 6:39
I'm not sure about the net 54:39; the on-line results now have 40:27 for the 10K, 1:25:43 for the half, 2:02:47 for the 30K and 2:54:41 clock and 2:54:33 chip.

Yes, I started a little too aggressively for the conditions and paid for it.



My glasses were fogged over most of the race so I didn't get to see more than glimpses of the half runners on the turnaround. But it sounds like a super race from the press release:

HOUSTON, Jan. 14, 2007 – Ryan Hall separated himself from his competitors with a blistering 4:36 first mile, then ran the rest of the Aramco Houston Half Marathon alone on Sunday en route to a U.S. half marathon record.
The 24-year-old runner from Big Bear, Calif., ran 59:43 and became the first American ever to break an hour in the half-marathon distance. Hall beat the previous American record, set in 1985, by a minute and 12 seconds. He obliterated the previous Aramco Houston Half Marathon course record, set last year, by 2:24.
“I train in altitude,” Hall said when asked about this significant record. “I saw my splits around 4:30 and then thought, ‘I can do this.’”
Hall, in his half-marathon debut, ran the last 12.1 miles through the streets of Houston alone in what was arguably the best-ever performance by an American distance runner.
Fasil Bizuneh and Meb Keflezighi, the silver medalist in the 2004 Olympic marathon, were left to battle for second place, finishing two seconds apart in second and third place, respectively, but more than two minutes behind Hall. Brian Sell, the 2006 U.S. half marathon champion who won the race here last year, finished sixth.
Hall took home $21,000 for his efforts: $12,000 for his first-place finish, $4,000 in bonus money for the course record and an extra $5,000 for the American record.
Temperatures in the low 50s on Sunday morning made it a great day for setting records, and Hall was not alone in erasing past marks.
Dire Tune, 21, came to Houston to set a course record, according to her agent, and could proclaim “mission accomplished” 2:26:52 later. Tune broke the old course record – set 23 years ago by former world marathon record-holder and Olympic gold medalist Ingrid Kristensen – by 59 seconds.
Her previous best was 2:30:48 set in Los Angeles in 2005, where she finished fourth. The Ethiopian pocketed $25,000 for first place and an additional $10,000 for the course record.
In the men’s marathon, Feyisa Tusse of Ethiopia crossed the finish line almost three minutes ahead of his closest competitors. David Cheruiyot, 36, who won the race in 2005 and 2006, finished fifth. Tusse takes home a $3,000 bonus for running a time below 2:12 in addition to the $25,000 first-place prize.
In the women’s U.S. Half Marathon Championship, Elva Dryer and Kate O’Neil battled for the lead throughout the race. Dryer pulled ahead in the final stretch, clocking 1:11:42 at the finish, a five-second victory over O’Neil.
“I had to maintain a good stead pace,” said Dryer. “A couple of us were together at the beginning. I knew she wasn’t far behind the whole time.” Dryer collects $12,000 for her run.
Fourteen athletes qualified for the U.S. Olympic Trials in Sunday’s race. In the marathon, five men broke the Olympic A standard by running under 2:20. Another five men qualified by running sub-2:22, the Olympic B standard. Four women qualified by beating the Olympic B standard of 2:47.

A somewhat jumpy video of the half marathon race.


If you want an inspirational wallpaper for your PC desktop Let's Run has a great set of Ryan Hall photographs
.

Two No Run Days

I didn't run at all today or yesterday (except from my car to the convention center). My last zero mileage day was September 24th. I'm holding out hope for favourable weather. I think there's still a chance. Good luck everybody!

Traditional Wednesday Marathon Pace Run

I ran my traditional "2 to 3 miles at marathon goal pace on the Wednesday before the marathon" workout last night. I always run it on the track to help me stay close to pace throughout the run. Goal pace felt pretty good. I felt as though I was going fast but my breathing was in control and I felt pretty comfortable with the pace. I started out a little too fast, but I hit the second mile within 0.06 seconds of my goal! Total distance was 5 miles with a 1.5 mile warmup and cooldown. After the cooldown I felt very fresh, as though I hadn't worked hard at all.

I'm second guessing my "rule" about racing marathons with the dewpoint over 60°F. I think I'm ready for a PR even at my old age and I know I don't have much time left to go for another PR. But I'm not sure whether I really want to go back to training to get ready for New Orleans on February 25th. I guess I've been spoiled by this taper time. I really enjoyed sleeping in an extra 45 minutes yesterday morning. That was the first time I didn't run before a workday since August 17th.

Not a Good Sign

It's warming up quickly today. I ran into this gator at the power plant a few minutes ago:




It's not a good sign when the gators are out sunning in January.

Last Week's Training

59 for the week

M – 7 miles, recovery 8:32 mpm, 57°F at 2PM
Tu – 9 general aerobic 6:48 mpm I felt great and got a little carried away in the second half of this run. 54°F at Noon, pretty nice day with high thin clouds to sun
W – 6½ overall average pace 7:56 mpm, 54°F at 7PM
Th – 8½ overall average pace 7:12 mpm with 3x1Mile in 5:54, 5:53, and 5:52, 53°F from 11AM
F – 7 recovery 8:29 mpm, 61°F at 10AM
Sa – 8 general aerobic, steady pace at 6:54 mpm, 64°F at 2PM
Su – 13 at 6:42 mpm overall average: My wife had an early morning flight from IAH so I just happened to be near downtown Houston just before 7AM on a Sunday. This gave me the opportunity to run one of the Tornado’s infamous Sunday morning long runs. I was foolish enough to try and keep up with Joe O, Leno, JC, and Jack. Wow! On the way back to Memorial Park they were hitting some sub-6 miles; what a ride. 54°F from 7AM

There are different ways to taper with several possible combinations of reductions in volume and intensity. I got a little carried away with the intensity this week. I didn’t plan on running that many miles faster than 7:00 mpm. I guess this is my low volume, high intensity taper experiment.
I still feel pretty fresh despite a nagging sore throat.

Guessing the Weather, Part 2

Edit on Sunday afternoon: Well it didn't turn out too bad. Just before the race start Hobby Airport had 55 degrees with a 54 degree dewpoint, fog, and NW wind at 3mph. At 0753 the temperature had warmed to 56 and the dewpoint to 55. At 0853 it had warmed up a little more to 58 degrees with a dewpoint of 56 and the wind increased to NW at 7. The wind went calm by 0953 as the temperature increased to 59 and the dewpoint went to 57. By 1053 it had warmed to 65 with a 62 degree dewpoint. It got really tough by 1153 with the wind turning around to S14 with gusts to 22 and the Gulf air coming in raising the temperature to 73 and the dewpoint to 68. That's some pretty difficult conditions. Did anyone else feel they were hurt by the slippery streets? I swear my feet were sliding back a foot on every toe-off down University.

I thought it was interesting that the NWS put out a mea culpa Sunday afternoon:
"FIRST...THIS MORNING`S FORECAST. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE IGNORED ALL MODELS THAT WERE CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM AND TOO SLOW ON THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT. YESTERDAY`S BEST MODEL MOVED THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH...BUT IT KEPT ON HEADING SOUTH. SO WHEN TODAY`S BEST MODEL MOVED THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH...WE LEANED TOWARD OUR ONGOING SUCCESSFUL FORECAST THAT HAD THE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. THIS TIME...WE WERE WRONG AND THE FRONT DID MOVE BACK
INLAND. FORECAST UPDATES WERE CREATED AND SENT OUT AS SOON AS WE COULD GET THEM DONE."

Edit on Saturday: There were some changes in the National Weather Service forecast overnight. They now show the front moving in much sooner. Some of the other forecasters show the front moving in sooner, but then stalling. It seems as though we won't be certain over the weather until after we cross the finish line. All of this uncertainty with the weather reminds me a little of this old Joan Benoit Nike commercial

Edit at 1130 on Saturday: Here's the discussion from the NWS: HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS? THAT REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION THIS MORNING. THE FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER THAN ANY MODELS HAVE INDICATED...AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING STEADY FRONTAL PROGRESS TOWARD OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT THEN MOVE THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THEN FINALLY MOVE IT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIRMASS FINALLY SINKS INTO THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS THIS THINKING SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT MOVES FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WILL HAVE TO DO SOME UPDATES.


Edit at 2PM on Saturday:
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS NOT GETTING ANY EASIER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE FOLLOWING FORECAST IS BOUND TO CHANGE DUE TO A POSSIBLY SLOWER THAN EXPECTED MOVING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS NOW THROUGH BRENHAM (TEMPERATURE DROPPED FROM 70 TO 54 BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z)...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS STILL JUST TO THE ORTH OF CROCKETT. UNSEASONABLY WARM JANUARY TEMPERATURES PERSIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE (GALVESTON`S 19Z READING OF 71 IS ONLY FOUR DEGREES OFF OF THE RECORD 75 SET BACK IN 1880). SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HEAVIER RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST WILL STICK CLOSE TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE CONTAINED. WILL SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND THEN CROSSING THE COAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON MAY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES. WILL CARRY HIGH RAIN CHANCES UP NORTH AND LOWER VALUES TOWARD THE COAST. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE WET TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL. A SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO ENTER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FROZEN STUFF UP NORTH (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON) BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THIS WINTER WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE CENTRAL AND INLAND COASTAL ZONES (INCLUDING HOUSTON AND SURROUNDING AREAS)...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING...AND THIS WINTER WEATHER THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.


Now that we're just one week away from the Houston Marathon, the biggest remaining factor on marathon performance next Sunday is the weather. Why worry about the weather? After all, everyone else has to run in the same conditions.
I run marathons for the competition against myself. I'm trying to get the fastest time possible and for someone big and heavy, warm and humid weather can kill a fast time. After the very warm marathons of 1998, 1999, and 2000, I promised myself I wouldn't race another marathon with the dewpoint above 60°F. If some of these forecasts hold, I'm thinking about using Houston as a long run and signing up for the New Orleans Mardi Gras Marathon.

Impact Weather says "The front is expected to move through early to midday Sunday with much cooler weather for the beginning of next week."
Edit on Wednesday:
Wind S-SSW 12-17 gust 22 shifting to N 15-20 gust 25 midday
Precip 50% chance of rain.
Temp Morning Low: 65ºF High: 68ºF Late Evening Low...52F
Edit on Thursday: Wind S-SSW 12-17 gust 22 shifting to N 15-20 gust 25 morning; Precip 50% chance of rain; Temp Morning Low:66ºF High:70ºF Late Evening Low...45F
Edit on Friday:Cloudy with a 60% chance of rain and thunderstorms, with the day's warmest temperatures likely be reached in the morning. A strong cold front moves through round mid-day with temperatures falling into the 50s during the afternoon and upper 30s by midnight. Evening Low: 39 Morning High: 72 Wind: SSW 12-17 with gusts to 22 becoming N 15-20 with gusts to 25 around mid-day.
Edit on Saturday: A strong Arctic cold front is scheduled to move across the area Sunday morning and temperatures will fall sharply into the 40s by the late morning hours.



The NWS Forecast doesn't look good:
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Edit on Monday: Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.
Edit on Tuesday: Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 68.
Edit on Wednesday: Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Edit on Thursday: Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Edit on Friday: Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 10 mph.
Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west.
Edit on Saturday: BIG CHANGE HERE Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 50. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Here's the hourly weather graph. It shows the front coming through just after the race.
Edit on Saturday: BIG CHANGE HERE with the front coming in before midnight tonight! It's showing near-PR conditions right now with the temperature near 50, the dewpoint near 45, a moderate North wind at 10 mph and some light rain for the first five hours of the race. It would be time to brush off the goal pace if that forecast holds.



Here's what the 0-8 day Global Forecast System model shows for Houston:
0-8 Day GFS
Edit on Thursday: We're now in the shorter range GFS model:
0-84 Hour GFS


The model shows a cold front coming through early on Sunday morning. The GFS Meteogram is in Universal Time, so Houston is 6 hours behind the chart. The model now shows Sunday morning in the mid-40s and cooling off to near 40 at noon. Morning wind is North near 16 mph. Don't find yourself alone on Post Oak.
Edit on Monday: The GFS model still shows the cold front arriving early Sunday morning.
Edit on Tuesday: The GFS model now shows the front coming through later. Temperature for race start is predicted in the upper 60s.
Edit on Wednesday: No change in the GFS model.
Edit on Thursday: Race start temperature is now in the lower 60s.
Edit on Friday: Not much change.
Edit on Saturday: The GFS model shows some cooling Saturday night and lower winds, but the front still not coming in until Sunday after the race.

The real question with the forecast is the timing of the cold front. Here's what the
NWS Meteorologists are discussing:
.....NSHORE WINDS/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PROGGED TO RETURN ON/ABOUT LATE WED...PEAKING FRI/SAT. NOT ALL THAT ENAMOURED WITH THE IDEA OF POPS FOR WED AS THE AIRMASS A-CROSS SE TX STILL SEEMS A BIT DRY...BUT THE EXTENDED PROGS ARE INDICATING A RATHER DECENT LOOKING S/WV LATE WED. THE BEST POP
NUMBERS STILL RESERVED FOR THE FRI-SUN PERIOD AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. A FEW MORE TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE 12Z RUNS WITH THIS UPCOMING FEATURE - WITH ECMWF CONSPICUOUSLY SLOWER. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE FOR US.
Edit on Monday: ...WITH THE RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHED...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE. MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY AS INSTABILITIES INCREASE...AND THIS SHOULD BRING THE AREA HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INCREASED CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL SHOW READINGS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
Edit on Tuesday: RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SLIPS INTO NORTH TX AND THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST TX SATURDAY TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX LATE SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY. A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PROGGED BY
THE 00Z GFS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MONDAY WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TX MON MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
Edit on Wednesday: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTH TX. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY SO WILL NOT MENTION RAIN CHANCES UNTIL FRIDAY FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN STILL APPEARS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST TX SAT AFTERNOON MOVES SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX SUN AFTERNOON.
Edit on Thursday:CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL USHER COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TX EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST...RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX TONIGHT AS WELL AS FRI/SAT NIGHT. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UNTIL SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT BARRELS INTO NORTH TX EARLY SATURDAY AND APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER 00Z NAM SOLUTION THAN THE 00Z GFS. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TX LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING...RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UP UNTIL THIS MORNING...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX SUN AFTERNOON BUT INSTEAD HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FORWARD SPEED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE GFS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT TO THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. WITH THE MOMENTUM OF THE ARCTIC AIR...BELIEVE THE GFS IS NOT HANDLING THE SHALLOW AIRMASS VERY WELL SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS TIMING OF PAST MODEL RUNS.
Edit on Friday:...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN AS ONSHORE FLOW TRANSPORTS 60-65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS BACK INLAND. MCLDY & WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
Edit on Saturday: ...IT IS ARRIVING MUCH FASTER THAN MODELS DEPICTED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAM12...MAJORITY OF OTHER 00Z MODELS ARE ALREADY WAY BEHIND THE CURVE. GENERALLY FOLLOWED NAM12 THRU THIS EVENING BY MOVING THE FRONT TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS AGAIN ARE TRYING TO HANG THE FRONT UP OVERNIGHT...AND SOME EVEN MOVE IT BACK A LITTLE NORTH ON SUN AS A LLVL WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BUT CONSIDERING IT IS A SHALLOW DENSE COLD AIRMASS...WE BELIEVE IT`LL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WITH
THAT BEING SAID...WE GENERALLY DISREGARDED ALL THE GUIDANCE AND CONTINUED A SLOWER SOUTHWARD PUSH AND OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SHRA AND ELEVATED TSRA...WITH THE BULK OF IT OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANTICIPATE THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE WAY UP.
THE COLDEST AIR STILL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN SURGE SPILLS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM CANADA.


Accuweather has backed up on an earlier cold front arrival. Their low is now 56 with a high of 61 on Sunday.
Edit on Monday: Their low is now 62 with a high of 66 on Sunday.
Edit on Tuesday: No change here.
Edit on Wednesday: Still no change.
Edit on Thursday: Their low is now 64 with a high of 70 on Sunday.
Edit on Friday: Their low is still 64 but the high is 76 for Sunday. ugggg Accuweather hourly
Edit on Saturday: Their holding with steady 65 degrees through the race.


The Weather Channel shows a Saturday night low of 57 with a high of 73 on Sunday and scattered showers.
Edit on Monday: The Weather Channel has moved up the cold front a little. They show a Saturday night low of 56 with a high of 57 on Sunday.
Edit on Tuesday: They now show a Saturday night low of 61 with a high of 64 on Sunday.
Edit on Wednesday: They now show a Saturday night low of 64 with a high of 69 on Sunday.
Edit on Thursday:They now show a Saturday night low of 65 with a high of 72 on Sunday.
Edit on Friday: They now show a morning low at 58 That wouldn't be too bad!
Edit on Saturday: Here's their hourly forecast showing 54 to 61 during the race with winds from the SE at 9 to 12 mph

Aaaargh

I felt a sore throat coming on last night. Sure enough, my throat's much worse this morning. I think I'm catching the "Fort Campbell crud" my son brought home. Those army bases are worse than schools for spreading germs and illness.

I did run a decent set of mile repeats yesterday. 5:54, 5:53, and 5:52 compared to 6:07, 6:10, and 5:56 from the same workout two years ago. I wasn't very happy with the run until I looked in the old log and saw how slow the miles were a couple of years ago. I can't believe how close we're getting to the marathon. I only have three more hard workouts: just an 8 mile general aerobic run Saturday, 13 miles on Sunday, and an 8 mile run with 2 or 3 miles at marathon pace on Wednesday. Everything else is just a recovery run. I might even take a day off. My last zero-mileage day was over 100 days ago back in September when we drove up to Fort Campbell to see the soldiers return from Iraq.

2006: Another Rebuilding Year

I started the year out injured, missing the Houston Marathon with a big DNS. It would have been my tenth Houston Marathon in a row. I took January, February and most of March completely off. I really missed running, especially with all of the stress of having a son in Iraq. My first race was the Bayou City 10K; it was also my longest run of the year.

Training this Fall has been pretty good. It's encouraging to start from a low point and build up.

Total mileage for the year was 2334.
January - 4
February - 27
March - 112
April - 148
May - 173
June - 195
July - 214
August - 179
September - 227
October - 346
November - 351
December - 359

Date -- Time -- Pace -- Purdy -- WMA% Race

3-11-06 -- 43:09 -- 6:56 -- 413 -- 69.1% Bayou City 10K
3-25-06 -- 31:37 -- 6:22 -- 494 -- 74.3% Law Week 8K
4-8-06 -- 19:19 -- 6:13 -- 479 -- 74.0% Bellaire Trolley Run 5K
4-22-06 -- 19:53 -- 6:24 -- 444 -- 71.9% Freeport Flapjack 5K
5-20-06 -- 27:30 -- 6:15 -- 504 -- 73.9% Beach to Bay Leg 6 (4.4M?)
7-4-06 -- 26:06 -- 6:31 -- 443 -- 72.1% Firecracker 4M
7-29-06 -- 19:24 -- 6:15 -- 473 -- 74.2% Mosquito Chase 5K
9-9-06 -- 20:17 -- 6:32 -- 420 -- 71.0% Brazosport Relay-Tri 5K leg
9-30-06 -- 13:48 -- 6:54 -- 314 -- 64.0% Tornado Cross Country Relay 2M
10-15-06 -- 1:07:08 -- 6:43 -- 493 -- 73.2% Space City 10-Miler
10-29-06 -- 1:24:44 -- 6:27.8 -- 564 -- 76.0% Striders Half Marathon
11-19-06 -- 1:39:07 -- 6:22.8 -- 595 -- 77.9% Houston Masters 25K
12-10-06 -- 1:57:57 -- 6:19.6 -- 623 -- 80.1% Sugar Land 30K

I think some of the WMA age-graded %s are based on the 2006 factors and some are based on the older factors. No PRs this year, but the age-graded % from the 30K is my best age-graded race.

Last Week of 2006

74¼ miles for the last week of 2006. This week had a few less miles as the taper starts for Houston. Saturday and Sunday's runs were a challenging combination. The schedule had Saturday as a 10 mile run with 5 miles at Lactate Threshold pace and Sunday as a 17-miler. I've always had trouble with the LT runs. The desired pace is about a 10-mile race pace. I seem to always have trouble running this fast in training. I wish the Angleton 10K race was still still held this weekend (it's scheduled for the last weekend in January now). I can run much harder in a race. My 10K PR is from the Angleton 10K back in 2003 when it was held two weeks before the Houston Marathon. I ran the LT workout on the Lake Jackson Firecracker 4 course. The mile markers are accurate and they're still easy to see on the street. From my house to mile 2 on the course is 1.5 miles, so I decided to use the run to mile 2 as a warmup and then run 2 to the start and the start to the finish as a 6 mile LT run and then use the next 3.5 as a cooldown. I ran the first mile pretty strong, the second mile on pace, but then cratered in the 3rd and 4th miles. They were all the way back to marathon pace! I stopped for a second and tried to re-focus to bring the last two miles in at least faster than marathon pace. I ended up running the 6 miles in the exact same time (37:46} as two years ago when I was using the same schedule. Very disappointing.
Sunday's long run went better. My arms were tired from Saturday's LT run, but I was able to speed up throughout this run and ended up with some miles near marathon pace that felt much easier than the ones on Saturday.

M AM – 9¾ Miles recovery run at 8:34 mpm average pace, 52*F at 4PM
M PM – I combined the scheduled 6 AM and 4 PM into one run: No way was I going to go out running twice on Christmas Day!
Tu AM – 6¾ general aerobic 7:08 mpm 39*F at 4AM!
W AM – 6¾ general aerobic 7:31 mpm 38*F at 4AM no wind and very nice with a carpet of stars!
W PM – 8½ average pace 8:04 mpm, Nobody wanted to do an interval workout this week. 58*F at 7PM
Th AM - 4¾ general aerobic 7:51 mpm 61*F at 4AM This was supposed to be a 7 mile recovery run but I woke up to late and had to run this fast to get my 4¾ mile loop finished in time to get to work.
F – 9¾ recovery run at 8:30 mpm, 70*F at 10AM with occasional showers and sun
Sa – 11 with 6 at LT pace (almost) 6:44 mpm overall average, 61*F at 1PM
Su – 17 at 7:02 mpm overall average, several of the last few miles in the 6:30s, 65*F from 2PM sunny and very nice dry air with the dewpoint in the low 40s.

The first week of 2007 cuts the mileage all the way back to 57 and has NO DOUBLES scheduled :) :) :)

Higher Mileage, Faster Times?

For years, I trained for marathons with a peak weekly mileage of about 50. In 2002, I stumbled on a training plan by Pfitzinger with a peak weekly mileage of 70. The average mileage for the 16 weeks from when the training plan started to the taper two weeks before the marathon was 64.3. It was a big jump for me and I smashed my PR at Houston '03 (the Regis Factor). The past three years I've increased the mileage some more, using the Pfitzinger over 70 mpw plan. It hasn't paid off yet. We'll see what happens this year. Training seems to have gone well. I started off with a very disappointing 20:17 5K at the Brazosport Relay Triathlon and finished up with a decent 30K that wasn't a PR but was my second best race since I was in college. Over the last 16 weeks Ive averaged 74.0 miles per week (including a 14 mile week back in September when we drove up to Fort Campbell to see my son return from Iraq). In the past 10 weeks, I've averaged 80.8 miles per week.

Gun - Chip/Watch *Average weekly miles M-18 to M-2*

Best/Worst/First 11/12/1995 - 3:58:08 - 3:55:28 New York City '95 *??*

Best 11/3/1996 - 3:51:20 - 3:49:03 New York City '96 *??*

Best 1/12/1997 - 3:46:55 - 3:45:36 Houston '97 *35.3*

Best 1/18/1998 - 3:25:28 - 3:25:14 Houston '98 *39.7*

Best 1/17/1999 - 3:21:20 - 3:21:12 Houston '99 *44.5*

1/16/2000 - 3:29:46.7 - 3:29:25.0 Houston '00 *40.3*

2/26/2000 - 3:39:10 - 3:39:10 Ft Worth '00 *39.2*

Worst 1/14/2001 - 3:56:33.0 - 3:56:23.0 Houston '01 *43.5*

Best/BQ 2/18/2001 - 3:19:15.2 - 3:19:01.4 Austin '01 *43.1*

4/16/2001 - 3:27:37.0 - 3:23:52.0 105th Boston *40*

Best 1/20/2002 - 3:15:43.0 - 3:15:24.0 Houston '02 *44.6*

Best 1/19/2003 - 2:58:54.0 - 2:58:53.0 Houston '03 *64.3*

4/21/2003 - 3:07:12.0 - 3:06:25.0 107th Boston *54.7*

Best 1/18/2004 - 2:55:51.0 - 2:55:46.0 Houston '04 *67.0*

1/16/2005 - 2:57:53.0 - 2:57:51.0 Houston '05 *77.3*

4/18/2005 - 3:05:16.0 - 3:04:49.0 109th Boston *52.9*

1/14/2007 - ?:??:??.? - ?:??:??.? Houston '07 *74.0*