T-3 & M-4 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Forecast

The forecast continues to show more Gulf air coming in this weekend, but Marathon morning still looks good. But if the forecast keeps changing...?
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. A GRADUAL WARM UP CAN THEN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A WARMER RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF SETS UP. WILL CARRY 20% POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.


The 84-hour model has the temperature near 40°F but with nearly no wind for the OTs and no rain. The 7.5-day model has Sunday morning near 40 but with an increasing wind from the south and humidity increasing during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 34°F with the wind at 5 mph Saturday morning and a low of 39°F and winds at 5 mph Sunday morning.





The hourly forecast still shows a cooler morning low temperature at 35°F, dew point at 24°F, and a north wind at 2 mph. At 10AM, it shows 46°F, dew point at 25°F, and a east "wind" at 1 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 40°F, dew point at 40°F, and a south-southeast wind at 2 mph and at 10AM, it shows 50°F, dew point at 43°F, and a southeast wind at 6 mph. Saturday is still nearly perfect, and Sunday is still very good but if the trend keeps going, Sunday might get to a little warm and humid.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NW 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
Partly CLoudy


For Saturday they show:
High 63°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SW 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 42°F
Precip 0%
Wind: S 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 38°F RealFeel®: 37°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 5 mph with gusts to 8

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 62°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds ESE at 6 mph with gusts to 10

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 40°F RealFeel®: 41°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds SE at 5 mph with gusts to 9

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Partly Sunny
Winds SE at 7 mph with gusts to 13

Today's OT runner is Abdi Abdirahman from Tuscon. He's another bald guy I'll be cheering on Saturday.


And today's video is a summary of the top contenders by Runner's World:

No Excuses T-4 & M-5 OT and Houston Marathon Forecast

The forecast is showing some more Gulf air coming in Sunday and warming temperatures, but Marathon morning still looks very good.
CANADIAN COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE N PLAINS SHOULD PLUNGE SOUTH TOMORROW AND REACH SE TX WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM BUT THE 18Z NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THEM AS FAR AS FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD REACH AND PUSH OFF THE
COAST CLOSE TO 09Z THU. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY SO HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER SE TX THU NIGHT SO FRI MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SAT MORNING MIN TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL BUT WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS REACHING FREEZING. COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL HOLD ON FOR SAT SO KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT TODAY OVER THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. EXPECT OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE WHEN THIS LOW KICKS EAST ACROSS THE S ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW SOME RETURN FLOW LATE SUN INTO MON WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SHEARING OUT SYSTEM. GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM... BUT STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO INCLUDE 20 POPS ON MON FOR THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BE QUITE THE RAIN MAKER THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY ACROSS SE TX.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 30°Fs but with nearly no wind for the OTs and no rain. Sunday morning starts warmer, near 40 also with nearly no wind, and no rain but warming up with humidity increasing during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 32°F with the wind at 12 mph Saturday morning and a low of 35°F and winds at 7 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It now shows a cooler morning low temperature at 35°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-northwest wind at 3 mph. At 10AM, it shows 45°F, dew point at 28°F, and a west wind at 3 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 40°F, dew point at 33°F, and a west wind at 6 mph and at 10AM, it shows 50°F, dew point at 35°F, and a south-southwest wind at 6 mph. Both days are still "no excuses" running conditions.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 34°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NW 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 55%
Partly CLoudy


For Saturday they show:
High 62°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 39°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSW 2 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 65°F
Precip 10%
Wind: ESE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 34°F RealFeel®: 31°F
Clear
Winds SW at 6 mph with gusts to 13

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 62°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds NW at 10 mph with gusts to 17

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 41°F RealFeel®: 39°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds NE at 7 mph with gusts to 12

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 8 mph with gusts to 14

Here's some more of Hanson's-Brooks Desiree Davila and Mike Morgan training in the cold today.

T-5 &M-7 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guessing

Well we can check floods and tornados of the list for this week. The NWS discussion still indicates some real Canadian air will finally be coming down to the Gulf, but there is more uncertainty today about race weekend:
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD DAY THU WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS HAVE NO AGREEMENT WHAT SO EVER. GFS NOW DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT SAT WHICH HAS CHANGED ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND HAS NO CONSISTENCY. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF OR BASICALLY KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GOING. DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF A FREEZE FRI MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND CALM WINDS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs but with a much stronger east-northeast wind for the OTs and the chance of some light rain. Sunday morning starts much colder, in the 30s but with a very light north wind, a chance of light rain and still very little warmup during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a much colder low of 32°F with the wind at 12 mph Saturday morning and a low of 392°F and winds at 13 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It now shows a warmer morning low temperature at 39°F, dew point at 33°F, and a southwest wind at 6 mph. At 10AM, it shows 46°F, dew point at 34°F, and a southwest wind at 5 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 43°F, dew point at 39°F, and a north wind at 3 mph and at 10AM, it shows 51°F, dew point at 42°F, and a east wind at 6 mph. I would call both days "no excuses" running conditions.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 10%
Wind: E 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
Mostly Clear


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 43°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNW 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 79%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 77%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 39°F RealFeel®: 35°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 9 mph with gusts to 14

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 45°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Rain
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Today's video for the men's OT race is Dathan Ritzenhein

Watch more video of NYRR Dash to the Finish Line (5K) 2011 on flotrack.org

Today's video for the woman's OT race is the pre-race favorite, Shalane Flanagan

T-6 & M-7 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

Today's Men's OT video is Meb training in California.

I'll be cheering for Meb; we bald guys need to stick together.

It was warm and humid again today. The NWS discussion indicates some real Canadian air will finally be coming down to the Gulf, just in time for race weekend:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. LONG WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST BY 12Z THU. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z THU WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA BY FRI MORNING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THU AND THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA FRI. MAY HAVE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO PUSH BY THE AREA THU/FRI SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MODELS BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS ON DAY 8. LOOKS LIKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE AND FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs with a very light north wind for the OTs. Sunday morning starts warmer near 50 with a stronger east wind, a chance of rain and very little warmup during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a much colder low of 34°F and stronger winds (10 mph) Saturday morning and a low of 42°F and winds at 9 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It shows a colder morning low temperature at 34°F, dew point at 29°F, and a north-northeast wind at 7 mph. At 10AM, it shows 44°F, dew point at 31°F, and a northeast wind at 7 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 38°F, dew point at 36°F, and a east-northeast wind at 6 mph.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 37°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 69%
Partly Cloudy


For Saturday they show:
High 56°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 63%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 50%
Wind: NNE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 76%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 53°F
Precip 40%
Wind: NNE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Showers



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 36°F RealFeel®: 26°F
Clear
Winds N at 14 mph with gusts to 23

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 57°F RealFeel®: 55°F
Sunny
Winds NNW at 12 mph with gusts to 23

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 37°F RealFeel®: 33°F
Clear
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 19

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Cloudy
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 24

Today's video for the woman's OT race is Jen Rhines:

Watch more video of Jen Rhines on flotrack.org

Here are some projections for the OT race. I don't believe it's such a sure thing as theat poll would have you believe.

OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guesses T-7 & M-8

It's warm and humid again today, but the models still show a cold front arriving Tuesday and staying through next Monday. That's a long time for a cold front to hang around this winter. I wonder if it will really happen that way. The cold fronts this year seem to turn around in a day or two, and the warm Gulf air almost immediately raises temperatures and humidity. I think the forecast for the OTs is OK, but I'd be surprised if the cool weather hangs along through Sunday.

The 7.5-day model includes both races now. [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] The model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs with a very light north wind now. Sunday morning also starts in the 40s but with a little stronger east wind. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a low of 47°F and stronger winds (11mph) Saturday morning and a low of 39°F and stronger winds (13mph) Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs. It shows a colder morning low temperature at 40°F with a north wind at 8 mph.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 62%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Few Showers

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%
Mostly Clear

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 0%
Wind: N 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 63%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 43°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Cloudy
Winds E at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Partly CLoudy
Winds N at 5 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 44°F RealFeel®: 44°F
Clear
Winds SW at 6 mph with gusts to 16

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 58°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SSW at 8 mph with gusts to 22

It will be warmer than where these guys have been training.


I wouldn't be surprised if conditions were similar to where the Brooks/Hansons Group has been training.


Desiree looks good!

Olympic Trials Marathon and Houston Marathon Weather Forecast T-8 & M-9

It's warm and humid today, but the models still show near ideal conditions for next Saturday and Sunday.

The 7.5-day model includes Olympic Trials morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] with the temperature in the 40°Fs and a very light west wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 34°F and stronger winds (10mph) in the morning.



The 8.5-16 day model still shows marathon morning on Sunday. Today's model shows the warmup even later on Monday, with temperature in the 40°Fs and a light northeast wind.



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 40%
Wind: NNE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%
Showers


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NNE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 64%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 44°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 75%
Clear

For Sunday they show:
High 61°F
Precip 10%
Wind: S 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 32 °F RealFeel®: 32 °F
Clear
Winds NW at 5 mph with gusts to 10

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 58°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Sunny
Winds W at 6 mph with gusts to 19

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 38 °F
Clear
Winds WSW at 6 mph with gusts to 14

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Sunny
Winds SW at 9 mph with gusts to 23

2012 Olympic Trials Marathon and Houston Marathon T-10 & M-11 Weather Forecasts

I had more trouble with my knee and rested nearly all of December. The knee still doesn't feel right, but I'm trying to start running again to prepare for Boston. My running has been disappointing, but I'm still excited about the Olympic trials. The course is a little strange with lots of turns (way too many?), a little loop downtown and then three loops out to Shepherd and back to the GRB on Memorial and Allen Parkway. Here's a cute little animation showing the expected progression through the loops with the women's later start time.



It''s still early, but here's the forecast for the trials and the Houston Marathon.

The GFS 16-day model shows a nearly perfect Saturday for the trials with the temperature in the 40sºF and nearly no wind. Marathon Sunday looks more iffy, with a South wind and the dew point soaring from the 30s well into the 50s.


The forecast looks much worse at Accuweather:

Friday Night:
Low 43ºF, Shower late, Wind South at 6 mph with Gusts to 12
Saturday
High 69ºF, Rain, Wind South at 8 with Gusts to 21

Saturday Night:
Low 38ºF, Partly Cloudy, Wind West-Southwest at 10 mph with Gusts to 24
Sunday
High 51ºF, Sunny, Wind North-NorthWest at 19 with Gusts to 41!

The Weather Channel's forecast just goes up to Friday night. It agrees more with the 16-day GFS model:

Friday Night:
Low 40ºF, Partly Cloudy (0% Precipitation), Wind from North at 3 mph