M - 8¼ miles recovery run at 8:15 pace, day off from work, 46°F at 3PM
Tu - 5¾ miles at 6:58 pace, 34°F at 4AM
W - 5¼ miles at 7:03 pace, 39°F at 4AM
Th - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:46 pace, 62°F at 4AM and raining
F - missed, the cold I got last week developed into a bad sore throat and irritating cough. I took the day off to try and recover; plus it was the coldest day here in over 12 years.
Sa - 9 miles felt easy but it ended up being 6:40 pace, bright sun but only 41°F from 2:30PM
Su - 13 miles, average 7:13 pace, 42°F from 1PM
I felt the better early in the week than I have for months. But around Wednesday, the cold I picked up last week, turned to a very irritating cough. I took Friday off, and was pleasantly surprised at how easy Saturday's fast run felt.
The big weather story is a gradual warm-up into the week as air from the Gulf returns. Then a low pressure area could develop in the Western Gulf causing heavy rain Thursday-Friday, with strong north winds blowing in colder air Saturday. This could be another interesting week watching the forecast develop. Here's the NWS discussion:
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND IMW WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY WITH A TROUGH SWINGING IN BENEATH THE RIDGE AND OVER TX BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY CLOUDS SHOULD BE AN ISSUE AND MAINLY OVER THE SW HALF. WARMUP TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THIS PATTERN WITH THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS BUT THE SWATH NORTH OF A CROCKETT TO CORRIGAN LINE. ANOTHER HIGH DROPS SOUTH AND REINFORCES THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE INCREASES AS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS LOW THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE THE SW US AND NW MEX BORDER THU-FRI. VERY IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN WITH GFS INDICATING PW OF 1.3" TO 1.5" COINCIDENT WITH TREMENDOUS LIFT SO HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE THU-FRI PERIOD. 00Z GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA...IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THEN COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES BUT THESE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE HARD TO HANG A HAT ON AS BEING THE SOLUTION. RAINS SHOULD BE COMING TO END SATURDAY MORNING WITH A MODERATELY DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA (NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).
The 7.5-day model now includes marathon morning. This model still shows temperature and dewpoints starting in the 30s and warming to the fifties, with a light north wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MOS model. shows a low of 42°F and strong winds in the morning.
The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NW 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 81%
Cloudy
For Sunday they show:
High 57°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Mostly Cloudy
AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:
Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 39 °F RealFeel®: 34 °F
Low clouds
Sunday, Jan 17
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 63 °F
Rather cloudy and warmer
The weather this weekend has been remarkable. We used to get cold days like this fairly often, but they've been very rare the last 15 years.
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