Thursday, January 14, 2010

Last Real Training Run and the M-3 Forecasts

I ran my traditional "goal marathon pace run on the track" last night. Everything went well, although I ended up running a little faster than I wanted. We'll see how it all works out.

The forecasts remain amazingly consistent (and consistently favorable), but there's been a slight warming trend. Today's NWS discussion:

THE MAIN FORECAST DETAILS TO IRON OUT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GULF WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A MESO LOW OR SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE. AT THE SAME TIME ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS UP THROUGH S TX AND BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT NE OVER S TX AND THE TX GULF COAST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF FRI. THE GFS CONTINUES A TREND OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP OFF THE COAST IN THE GULF. THE FORECAST WILL GO MORE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH NOT ONLY KEEPS PRECIP IN THE GULF BUT ALSO HAS WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER TX DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. FLOODING STILL SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT MOISTURE MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH WITH PRECIP WATER
AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP THAT LINGERS OVER SE TX.

STRONG EAST WINDS ON FRI STILL SHOULD ELEVATE TIDES A GOOD 1-2 FEET BUT OVERALL TIDE LEVELS MAY NOT BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. SHOULD WINDS BECOME ENHANCED WITH A MORE INTENSE SFC LOW...TIDE LEVELS MAY BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. THIS STILL BEARS WATCHING AND STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE TUE/WED NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 41°F at the start and 52°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the upper 30s to 40. That's warmer, but still very nice for running. They have a NNW wind at 5 mph to a SW wind at 2 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover at 15% to 22%.


The 84-hour model now includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 42°F and winds down to 7mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NW 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 87%
Clouds early/Clearing late


For Sunday they show:
High 63°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 74%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Mostly Sunny


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday their detailed forecasts. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 36 °F
Winds WNW at 10 mph with gusts to 17 mph
Clear

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 62°F RealFeel®: 64°F
Winds E at 7 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Partly sunny and warmer

1 comment:

Adrienne said...

I listened to her speak at yesterday's press conference. Sounds like she has respect for the longer distances.

Good luck on Sunday.