Tracking the Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

Last night was my traditional two miles on the track at Goal Marathon Pace. The run went well but that pace does seem fast. The key to the forecasts is arrival of a weak coldfront Saturday night or Sunday morning. Even though we're only three days away from the marathon, I'm not very condfident in the forecasts. We were supposed to have a strong cold front come through early this morning but it's nearly 70ºF right now in Matagorda County. The forecasts are trending warmer.

The contract weather service for the nuke plant has this forecast for Sunday:
Mostly cloudy to cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then becoming partly cloudy by late afternon
Wind NW-N 10-17 gust 25
Precip 30% chance of rain
Temp
Low: 53ºF
High: 64ºF
This was the first source that predicted winds this strong for Sunday. The forecast is for the nuke plant out in Matagorda County where the winds are usually stronger. This weather service's forecasts are the most reliable I've found for this area.

Marathon Day is on the NWS forecast:
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers before noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 64.
Here's the NWS hourly graphical forecast.
The forecasters discussion says:
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF OF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.


The 84 hour model now includes marathon morning. This model has changed to the warmer direction, with temperature in the upper 50s and a warmup and dry-out through the race [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. Here's the text version of the 7.5-day model.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 52°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 80%


For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 62%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 17
Low: 48 °F RealFeel®: 44 °F
Mostly cloudy with a bit of rain

Sunday, Jan 18
High: 64 °F RealFeel®: 62 °F
A shower possible in the morning; otherwise, clouds breaking for some sun