Guessing the Weather

Sunday 1-07 EDIT: See new post Guessing the Weather, Part 2 (many of the links are changing with the mid-range forecasts)

Now that we're starting to taper for the Houston Marathon, probably the biggest remaining factor on marathon performance next Sunday is the weather. Computer modeling has improved long range weather forecasting, but any forecast past four or five days still isn't much more than a wild ass guess. Regardless, I still enjoy tracking the forecast. Here's what the 8-16 day Global Forecast System model shows for Houston:

8-16 Day GFS

The model shows a cold front coming through on Saturday. The low for Sunday morning is predicted in the 40s and the model shows nearly no daytime heating. The model shows a North wind at 10-12 mph and precipitation accumulation up to two tenths of an inch. One thing is certain: the forecast will change between now and Sunday the 14th.
Edit on 12-31: The model now shows Thursday through Saturday as cold, with things warming up on Sunday! Sunday now has a predicted low in the mid-50s with a high near 70 and a Southeast wind building up above 10mph. With all of this variation, at least we do know there's not much certainty in this forecast.
Edit on 1-1: The model now shows Thursday through Sunday and beyond as unseasonably warm! Sunday now has a predicted low in the mid-60s with a high near 70 and mild South winds. I hope this forecast changes soon.
Edit on 1-2: Still warm and humid for Sunday the 14th. ouch
Edit on 1-3: Still shows a low in the 60s for Sunday. I'm ready for a change in this forecast.
Edit on 1-5: The model still shows Sunday as warm and humid, but now shows a strong cold front coming in Sunday evening.
Edit on 1-6: The model now shows that strong cold front coming in SATURDAY NIGHT. The GFS Meteogram is in Universal Time, so Houston is 6 hours behind the chart. The model now shows Sunday morning in the 50s and cooling off through the day. Morning wind is North near 20. Don't find yourself alone on Post Oak.

Accuweather predicts freezing rain Saturday night. Ha.
Edit on 12-31: Accuweather has already changed Saturday night's forecast from a low of 30 to a low of 49.
Edit on 1-1: Accuweather hasn't changed Saturday night's forecast, still a low of 49, but raining and a Sunday high of 73.
Edit on 1-2: Accuweather has a low of 52 now and a high of 73.
Edit on 1-3: no change in the Accuweather forecast.
Edit on 1-5: Accuweather has rolled over to the 6-10 day forecast. It still shows 52 as Sunday's morning low, but now has a high of 56 rainy and windy with a morning low on Monday at 28.
Edit on 1-6: Accuweather has also picked up on an earlier cold front arrival. Their low is now 40 with a high of 49 on Sunday.

Edit on 1-5: The Weather Channel has Marathon Sunday in the 6-10 day forecast. It shows a Sunday low of 52 with a high of 70 and scattered showers. Note: Over the years I've noticed that The Weather Channel's long range forecast heavily biases seasonal averages. Their long range forecast rarely predicts extreme temperatures.
Edit on 1-6: The Weather Channel shows a Saturday night low of 59 and a Sunday high of 70.

I'm an Excel Spreadsheet Geek

Edit 3/27/09
I admit it. I'm also so anal I keep three running logs. I keep a good old fashioned paper log based on the old log Runner's World gives away. I made my own version in MicrosSoft Word and print out enough pages to fold over and staple together for about a year and a half. Here's an example. My current log has a laminated page of the McMillan Running Calculator as a cover.

I keep two Excel spreadsheet logs. The first one I started almost ten years ago and tracks mileage. My other Excel spreadsheet log is one published by David Hays. It keeps track of mileage, times, race performances, etc. It's formatted for one year, so I start a new one each year (the reason behind this post). I modify it to include more Pfitz-like training run descriptions, more shoes, and a few other things. I learned quite a bit about Excel by changing this log. The official David Hays website seems to be down now:
David Hays Log Page
Here's a Blank Copy of My Version
Here's a sample of the spreadsheet with some recent data.

Here's a calendar-based spreadsheet log (month-at-a-glance): Blank Monthly Log
I haven't used this log, but I like all of the information that's displayed on a one month sheet. This spreadsheet was created by "fat pumpkin", a very talented marathoner from Louisiana.

Here's what the log looks like with the fat pumpkin's data: Monthly Log Example


I just started using the on-line log at RunningAHEAD. I really like the way this site integrates data from a GPS. Here's one of the charts from a recent 4x800/400 interval workout:


Edit 2008: I'm not sure if all of these links are still active. Here's a 2008 training log post.

I admit it. I'm also so anal I keep three running logs. I keep a good old fashioned paper log based on the old log Runner's World gives away. I made my own version in Word and print out enough pages to fold over and staple together for about a year and a half. My current log has a laminated page of the McMillan Running Calculator as a cover.

I keep two Excel spreadsheet logs. The first one I started almost ten years ago and tracks mileage. My other Excel spreadsheet log is one published by David Hays. It keeps track of mileage, times, race performances, etc. It's formatted for one year, so I start a new one each year (the reason behind this post). I modify it to include more Pfitz-like training run descriptions, more shoes, and a few other things. I learned quite a bit about Excel by changing this log. Here it is:
David Hays Log Page

Here's a calendar-based spreadsheet log (month-at-a-glance): Blank Monthly Log
I haven't used this log, but I like all of the information that's displayed on a one month sheet. This spreadsheet was created by "fat pumpkin", a very talented marathoner from Louisiana.

Here's what the log looks like with the fat pumpkin's data: Monthly Log Example

My Last Really Tough Week

88¼ for the week

M AM – 6¾ Miles recovery run at 8:53 mpm average pace, 67*F at 4AM
M PM – missed 4 mile recovery run
Tu AM – 6¾ recovery 8:16 mpm 64*F at 4AM
Tu PM – 5½ recovery 8:27 mpm 65*F at 9PM
W AM – 7¼ with some pretty hard miles, overall average pace 6:50 mpm, warm and humid 68*F at 4AM
W PM – 6 average pace 7:54 with 4x800/400rec, last 800 at 2:38, 62*F at 7PM and still cooling down
Th AM - 15 Medium Long Run 7:08 mpm with the last 4 to 5 miles in the 6:30s, 63*F from 1PM. I was caught in some pretty heavy rain during most of this run
Th PM - missed 4 mile recovery run
F – 9 general aerobic at 6:54 mpm, I got a little carried away and finished up with several miles in the 6:30s, 64*F at 4PM sunny and nice
Sa – 10 recovery 8:26 mpm, 57*F at 10AM another sunny and nice day, I saw 6 other runners (a record for my running route) This was scheduled as 6 in the AM and 4 in the PM but I didn’t have time for that
Su – 22 at 7:14 mpm overall average, several of the last few miles in the 6:30s, 47*F from before 7AM windy and rainy. I saw no other runners out in the cold rain. It reminded me a little of this old Joan Benoit Nike commercial



This was a tough week with four scheduled doubles. I was pleasantly surprised by all of the miles in the 6:30s this week.

A Retirement Ceremony for My Shoes

Sunday was my last run for my old shoes. They are my eighth pair of DS Trainers, which I named DT8. They're an ugly orange and white version of ASICS DS Trainer XI, model TN610, size 13 for my freakishly large feet. These shoes had a short, but fulfilling career. Their first run was an easy 4 1/4 mile recovery run on October 23rd, but over the next two months they logged 706 miles. They're pictured above with my next pair of shoes, younger brothers of the same model. While the new DT9s will run the marathon, I won't forget the DT8s as they bore the brunt of the training.




The soles of right DT8 next to right DT9. I'm not sure why my right shoe wears more than my left.



Here's the left DT8 and DT9. The left shoe seems to wear more at the forefoot and toe-off area.

My First Post

I'm not sure why I'm doing this, but here I go. I'm training for the Houston Marathon on January 14th.

I'm in the middle of my last really hard week of training before Houston. This will be my first marathon since Boston '05. I seem to be in better shape than when I ran my marathon PR three years ago. I'm not sure on my goal yet, but it would be really nice to break that PR. If the weather isn't favourable at Houston, I'll probably use it as a training run and try my luck at New Orleans (now that Austin no longer has a fast course).


78 miles for the past week
This was another easy week after the 30K Race Last year I injured myself a week after the 30K, but everything feels good this year. Now that the 30K is over, I’m going to try and more closely follow the training schedule (Pete Pfitzinger's 18 week over 70 miles per week).

M AM – 5¾ miles Recovery Run 9:24 mpm (minutes per mile) taking it VERY easy after the 30K race, 65*F at 4AM
M PM – missed
Tu – 5¾ recovery 8:35 mpm 62*F at 4AM Another recovery day
W afternoon – 12 Medium Long Run 7:17 mpm Vacation Day, nice weather sunny and 71*F with dry air at 2PM
W evening – 7 8:05 mpm another easy run, 57*F at 7PM
Th - 5¼ recovery 8:31 mpm 58*F at 4AM
F – 13¼: first 1¼ fairly easy with the dog, then 12 MLR at 7:07 mpm overall average, 73*F at 1PM and humid again This was a pretty hard run considering the conditions.
Sa – 9 recovery 8:36 mpm 75*F at 11AM and humid
Su – 20 at 7:44 mpm average, 73*F from 3PM and humid (dewpoint near 70). I really had to push hard to finish this run with 6-7 miles below 7:30 mpm

I picked up my son at the airport this morning. He's on leave from the 101st Airborne in Fort Campbell Kentucky after spending last Christmas in Iraq. He was in a pretty good mood and talked more about his experiences in Iraq over the last year.