Week 16: Taper Time

75½ miles for the week

M – 9 miles recovery run, average pace 8:26 mpm, 56°F at 11AM, Christmas Eve [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-MBTrail/SeaC]
Tu – 10 miles general aerobic, average pace 6:57 mpm, 61°F at 2:30PM [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-2MMBtrail/SeaC]
W - 14 miles, average pace 6:50 mpm, Vacation Day, sunny and windy 71°F at noon [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-2MMBtrail-2x2M/SeaC]
Th – 7½ miles recovery run, average pace 8:28 mpm, 59°F at 1PM mostly cloudy and windy, Vacation Day, [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail/SeaC]
F - 7 miles recovery run, average pace 8:05 mpm, 64°F at 1:30PM, sunny and very nice [SeaC/Ntrail/SeaC]
Sa – 11 miles tempo run with 6 at LT, average pace 6:35 mpm, 6 LT miles in 36:32, 56°F at noon, sunny [SB-Yaupon/FC4CourseTempo 2-S-4F/FC4Course 4F-2cooldown/Yaupon-SB]
Su – 17 miles, average pace 6:47 mpm, 66°F to 68°F from Noon, Sunny a bright blue sky and the dewpoint in the 30s°F, [SeaC/Ntrail-5x2M/SeaC]

Starting to coastdown this week, but there were some strong runs in there.

Not much hard training left:
M 31st: r6
Tu 1st: g9
W 2nd: r6
Th 3rd: 9 with 3x1600
F 4th: r6
Sa 5th: g8
Su 6th: MLR 13

M 7th: r6
Tu AM 8th: r5
Tu AM 8th: r4 [I will NOT run a stinking double that day!]
W 9th: g8 with 2@GMP
Th 10th: r6
F 11th: r5
Sa 12th: r4

Here's my Bottomlands Park paved trail/Mountain Bike Trail combination run. I was a little disappointed that the GPS measures the Mountain Bike Trail portion a little shorter than I thought. It might be because of all of the tight turns in the woods. My GPS pace goes way down on the trail even though my heart rate stays constant.

View Larger Map


The 16 day model forecast for Houston Marathon day now shows cold air froom the 10th on. The weather through the 9th still looks pretty bad, warm and humid with the dewpoint above 60. Marathon morning now has low 40s and a North wind up to 12 mph....watch out on Post Oak. And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I know of some swampland in Matagorda County....


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 31 °F RealFeel®: 36 °F
Mainly clear and cold


Sunday, Jan 13
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 61 °F
Sunny and warmer


For the record, here's the climate data around Houston Marathon day:
Jan 11 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1995; Record Low Max 30 1962; Record Low 12 1982; Record Hi Min 69 1995; Record Precip 1.77 1934
Jan 12 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 2000; Record Low Max 37 1985; Record Low 17 1962; Record Hi Min 68 2007; Record Precip 1.93 1944
Jan 13 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1935; Record Low Max 32 1996; Record Low 20 1973; Record Hi Min 68 1965; Record Precip 1.53 1967
Jan 14 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 82 1971; Record Low Max 42 1964; Record Low 19 1982; Record Hi Min 63 1965; Record Precip 0.90 1946
Jan 15 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 79 1996; Record Low Max 42 1984; Record Low 23 1979; Record Hi Min 61 1968; Record Precip 1.78 1974
The record high minimum temperatures are the ones that worry me. I hope we don't see anything close to those warm minimums.


Why does Rice play Texas?

Last Long Run

I ran my last long run today, 17 miles. It was warm and sunny, 66 degrees when I started just after noon, but the dewpoint was in the 30s so it was s super day for a long run. I started out at about 7:15mpm and picked up to 6:45 for the bulk of the run and about 6:20 for the last couple of miles. Overall average pace was 6:47 with a 151bpm heart rate.



The 16 day model forecast for Houston Marathon day now shows some warm humid air infiltration marathon day, but it still looks good for the morning. The weather through the 9th still looks pretty bad, warm and humid with the dewpoint above 60. And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I have some swampland in Matagorda County....


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 40 °F RealFeel®: 35 °F
Considerable clouds

Sunday, Jan 13
High: 52 °F RealFeel®: 47 °F
Rain

For the record, here's the climate data around Houston Marathon day:
Jan 11 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1995; Record Low Max 30 1962; Record Low 12 1982; Record Hi Min 69 1995; Record Precip 1.77 1934
Jan 12 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 2000; Record Low Max 37 1985; Record Low 17 1962; Record Hi Min 68 2007; Record Precip 1.93 1944
Jan 13 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 81 1935; Record Low Max 32 1996; Record Low 20 1973; Record Hi Min 68 1965; Record Precip 1.53 1967
Jan 14 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 82 1971; Record Low Max 42 1964; Record Low 19 1982; Record Hi Min 63 1965; Record Precip 0.90 1946
Jan 15 Average High/Low 62/41; Record Max 79 1996; Record Low Max 42 1984; Record Low 23 1979; Record Hi Min 61 1968; Record Precip 1.78 1974
The record high minimum temperatures are the ones that worry me. I hope we don't see anything close to those warm minimums.




Why does Rice play Texas?

The Bulk of the Training Is Done

I've seen a loose correlation between training mileage and marathon performance. The average mileage for the 16 weeks from when the training plan started to the taper two weeks before the marathon seems to be the most valid comparison.

Gun - Chip/Watch *Average weekly miles M-18 to M-2*

Best/Worst/First 11/12/1995 - 3:58:08 - 3:55:28 New York City '95 *??*

Best 11/3/1996 - 3:51:20 - 3:49:03 New York City '96 *??*

Best 1/12/1997 - 3:46:55 - 3:45:36 Houston '97 *35.3*

Best 1/18/1998 - 3:25:28 - 3:25:14 Houston '98 *39.7*

Best 1/17/1999 - 3:21:20 - 3:21:12 Houston '99 *44.5*

1/16/2000 - 3:29:46.7 - 3:29:25.0 Houston '00 *40.3*

2/26/2000 - 3:39:10 - 3:39:10 Ft Worth '00 *39.2*

Worst 1/14/2001 - 3:56:33.0 - 3:56:23.0 Houston '01 *43.5*

Best/BQ 2/18/2001 - 3:19:15.2 - 3:19:01.4 Austin '01 *43.1*

4/16/2001 - 3:27:37.0 - 3:23:52.0 105th Boston *40*

Best 1/20/2002 - 3:15:43.0 - 3:15:24.0 Houston '02 *44.6*

Best 1/19/2003 - 2:58:54.0 - 2:58:53.0 Houston '03 *64.3*

4/21/2003 - 3:07:12.0 - 3:06:25.0 107th Boston *54.7*

Best 1/18/2004 - 2:55:51.0 - 2:55:46.0 Houston '04 *67.0*

1/16/2005 - 2:57:53.0 - 2:57:51.0 Houston '05 *77.3*

4/18/2005 - 3:05:16.0 - 3:04:49.0 109th Boston *52.9*

Best 1/14/2007 - 2:54:41 - 2:54:33 Houston '07 *74.0*

1/13/2008 - ?:??:?? - ?:??:?? Houston '08 *81.0*

This seems to have been a pretty strong training cycle. We'll see how it turns out in a couple of weeks.

Last Big Tempo Run

I ran 6 miles at LT pace on the Firecracker 4 course today. I wasn't quite as fast as I hoped, but it was better than last year.
36:32 for six miles, mile splits were:
Time, Average HR
5:59, 156
5:57, 162
6:05, 164
6:09, 164
6:11, 164
6:08, 165

Here's the old GPS track with the warmup and cooldown (11 miles total at an average 6:35 pace):


View Larger Map

I used my new Saucony Grid Tangent-3 shoes for this run. I was able to fit into a 12 1/2 instead of my normal 13 and they're pretty close to the same weight as my old Adidas Rotterdams.





They also have very minimal uppers like the Rotterdams




The forecast for Houston Marathon day has gotten much colder now. The weather through the 9th still looks pretty bad, warm and humid with the dewpoint above 60. But from the 10th on the model shows cool weather with temperatures below 50. And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I have some swampland in Matagorda County....


AccuWeather has Saturday night on their 15 day forecast. They predict:
Saturday Night, Jan 12
Low: 37 °F RealFeel®: 35 °F
Partly cloudy





Why does Rice play Texas?

Guessing the Weather

Houston Marathon day (1/13/08) weather is now on the 16 day model.

The weather for the 6th through the 9th looks pretty bad, warm and humid with the dewpoint above 60. Then the 10th and 11th are cooler but Saturday the 12th is warm and humid again. But cooler air quickly returns and the model shows 40s for marathon day. And if you believe that's exactly what's going to happen, I have some swampland in Matagorda County....





I've been playing with Google Maps and my new GPS. Here's my standard running route past SeaCenter Texas to MacLean and Bottomlands Park:

View Larger Map


Why does Rice play Texas?

Houston Marathon Training Week 15: The Last Big One

100½ miles for the week

M – 9 miles recovery run, average pace 8:38 mpm, 61°F at 2PM, Vacation Day [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-MBTrail/SeaC]
Tu – 10 miles recovery run, average pace 8:16 mpm, 75°F at 1PM, Vacation Day [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-2MMBtrail/SeaC]
W AM - 10 miles general aerobic, average pace 7:05 mpm, Vacation Day, partly cloudy and humid 77°F at 11AM [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-2MMBtrail/SeaC]
W PM – 8 miles, 6x1200/400 recoveries, average pace 7:08 mpm, target time for the 1200s was 4:18 (5:44 per mile), 1200s were 4:18.1, 4:17.2, 4:17.3, 4:17.2, 4:17.7, and 4:16.9, 74°F at 7PM and somewhat windy [B’Wood track]
Th AM – 15 miles, average pace 7:19 mpm, 77°F at 11AM but with a strong WestNorthWest wind and a dry air mass arriving, Vacation Day, [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-3x2MMBtrail/SeaC]
Th PM – 4¼ miles recovery run, average pace 8:59 mpm, 81°F at 3PM sunny with very nice dry air, Vacation Day [FlagR-P-P]
F - 9 miles, fairly hard general aerobic, average pace 6:58 mpm, 73°F starting after noon, sunny with a South wind [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-MBtrail/SeaC]
F extra - 4¼ miles running back and forth to the supermarket, I lost my car keys, prettty fast going home, then a recovery run to pick up my car a little later, overall average pace 8:16 mpm [Plantation-Dixie]
Sa – 9 miles recovery run, average pace 8:51 mpm, 74°F at noon, sunny and very windy [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-MBTrail/SeaC]
Su – 22 miles, average pace 6:51 mpm, first two miles were at about 7:20 pace and picked up the pace until the last two miles were at 6:20 pace (13:01 from inside MacLean Park, past SeaCenter Texas , to my house; just a few seconds off last week's new World Record) 45°F to 47°F to 49°F from 11AM, Sunny with the dewpoint in the Teens°F VERY NICE, [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-5x2MMBtrail-2M/SeaC]

The +100 miles for the week was an accident, solely due to loosing my keys at the supermarket. I'm going to try and stay much closer to the schedule next week.

Sunday’s 22 miler was another enormous confidence builder. I felt great the entire way, running fast but very relaxed. If we can have weather on January the 13th similar to what we've had the last two Sunday's, it's going to be a very fun race!

It's all downhill from here:
M 24th AM: r6
M 24th PM: r4
Tu 25th: g10
W 26th: MLR 14
Th 27th: r7
F 28th: r6
Sa 29th: 10 with 5 LT
Su 30th: L17

M 31st: r6
Tu 1st: g9
W 2nd: r6
Th 3rd: 9 with 3x1600
F 4th: r6
Sa 5th: g8
Su 6th: MLR 13

M 7th: r6
Tu AM 8th: r5
Tu AM 8th: r4 [I will NOT run a stinking double that day!]
W 9th: g8 with 2@GMP
Th 10th: r6
F 11th: r5
Sa 12th: r4

Why does Rice play Texas?

Week 14: Promising Long Run

86 miles for the week

M AM – 6¾ miles recovery run, average pace 8:39 mpm, 73°F at 4AM [SB/Dow/BS]
M PM - missed
Tu – 12½ miles, average pace 7:18 mpm, mostly cloudy windy and humid, 79°F starting before noon, Vacation Day [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-2x2MMBtrail/SeaC]
W AM - 10 miles fairly easy general aerobic, average pace 7:45 mpm, Vacation Day, sunny 79°F at 10AM [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-2MMBtrail/SeaC]
W PM – 6 miles, 6x600/200 recoveries, average pace 7:03 mpm, 600s in 2:06, 2:01, 2:03, 2:01, 2:01, and 1:59, 63°F at 7PM [B’Wood track]
Th AM – 6¼ miles recovery run, average pace 8:35 mpm, 48°F at 4AM [SB/Dow/Ol]
F - 12½ miles, fairly hard general aerobic, average pace 6:48 mpm with several miles near 6:30 pace, 65°F starting at 10AM, overcast and occasional mist [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-2x2MMBtrail/SeaC]
F extra - 3 miles running back and forth to the car repair shop, 7:20 pace
Sa – 9 miles recovery run, average pace 8:45 mpm, 60°F at 2:30PM, sunny and very windy [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-MBTrail/SeaC]
Su – 20 miles, average pace 7:01 mpm, first two miles were at about 7:30 pace and picked up the pace until the last two miles were at 6:18 pace (12:57.5 from inside MacLean Park, past SeaCenter Texas , to my house; a new World Record!) 51°F to 52°F to 51°F from 2:30PM, Sunny with the dewpoint in the 20s°F VERY NICE, [SeaC/NtrailMBtrail-5x2MMBtrail/SeaC]

Sunday’s 20 miler was a real confidence builder. I started out a little tired, but just kept on picking up the pace because it was such a nice day. I never felt as though I was pushing it too much and the faster paces felt so easy and relaxed. I finished the run thinking I could have kept going for several more miles without too much effort.