T-5 &M-7 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guessing

Well we can check floods and tornados of the list for this week. The NWS discussion still indicates some real Canadian air will finally be coming down to the Gulf, but there is more uncertainty today about race weekend:
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD DAY THU WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS HAVE NO AGREEMENT WHAT SO EVER. GFS NOW DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT SAT WHICH HAS CHANGED ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND HAS NO CONSISTENCY. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF OR BASICALLY KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GOING. DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF A FREEZE FRI MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND CALM WINDS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs but with a much stronger east-northeast wind for the OTs and the chance of some light rain. Sunday morning starts much colder, in the 30s but with a very light north wind, a chance of light rain and still very little warmup during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a much colder low of 32°F with the wind at 12 mph Saturday morning and a low of 392°F and winds at 13 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It now shows a warmer morning low temperature at 39°F, dew point at 33°F, and a southwest wind at 6 mph. At 10AM, it shows 46°F, dew point at 34°F, and a southwest wind at 5 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 43°F, dew point at 39°F, and a north wind at 3 mph and at 10AM, it shows 51°F, dew point at 42°F, and a east wind at 6 mph. I would call both days "no excuses" running conditions.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 10%
Wind: E 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
Mostly Clear


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 43°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNW 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 79%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 77%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 39°F RealFeel®: 35°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 9 mph with gusts to 14

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 45°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Rain
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Today's video for the men's OT race is Dathan Ritzenhein

Watch more video of NYRR Dash to the Finish Line (5K) 2011 on flotrack.org

Today's video for the woman's OT race is the pre-race favorite, Shalane Flanagan

T-6 & M-7 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

Today's Men's OT video is Meb training in California.

I'll be cheering for Meb; we bald guys need to stick together.

It was warm and humid again today. The NWS discussion indicates some real Canadian air will finally be coming down to the Gulf, just in time for race weekend:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. LONG WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST BY 12Z THU. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z THU WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA BY FRI MORNING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THU AND THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA FRI. MAY HAVE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO PUSH BY THE AREA THU/FRI SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MODELS BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS ON DAY 8. LOOKS LIKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE AND FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs with a very light north wind for the OTs. Sunday morning starts warmer near 50 with a stronger east wind, a chance of rain and very little warmup during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a much colder low of 34°F and stronger winds (10 mph) Saturday morning and a low of 42°F and winds at 9 mph Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It shows a colder morning low temperature at 34°F, dew point at 29°F, and a north-northeast wind at 7 mph. At 10AM, it shows 44°F, dew point at 31°F, and a northeast wind at 7 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 38°F, dew point at 36°F, and a east-northeast wind at 6 mph.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 37°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 69%
Partly Cloudy


For Saturday they show:
High 56°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 63%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 50%
Wind: NNE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 76%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 53°F
Precip 40%
Wind: NNE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Showers



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 36°F RealFeel®: 26°F
Clear
Winds N at 14 mph with gusts to 23

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 57°F RealFeel®: 55°F
Sunny
Winds NNW at 12 mph with gusts to 23

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 37°F RealFeel®: 33°F
Clear
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 19

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Cloudy
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 24

Today's video for the woman's OT race is Jen Rhines:

Watch more video of Jen Rhines on flotrack.org

Here are some projections for the OT race. I don't believe it's such a sure thing as theat poll would have you believe.

OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guesses T-7 & M-8

It's warm and humid again today, but the models still show a cold front arriving Tuesday and staying through next Monday. That's a long time for a cold front to hang around this winter. I wonder if it will really happen that way. The cold fronts this year seem to turn around in a day or two, and the warm Gulf air almost immediately raises temperatures and humidity. I think the forecast for the OTs is OK, but I'd be surprised if the cool weather hangs along through Sunday.

The 7.5-day model includes both races now. [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] The model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs with a very light north wind now. Sunday morning also starts in the 40s but with a little stronger east wind. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a low of 47°F and stronger winds (11mph) Saturday morning and a low of 39°F and stronger winds (13mph) Sunday morning.



The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs. It shows a colder morning low temperature at 40°F with a north wind at 8 mph.


The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 62%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Few Showers

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%
Mostly Clear

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 0%
Wind: N 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 63%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 43°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Cloudy
Winds E at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Partly CLoudy
Winds N at 5 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 44°F RealFeel®: 44°F
Clear
Winds SW at 6 mph with gusts to 16

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 58°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SSW at 8 mph with gusts to 22

It will be warmer than where these guys have been training.


I wouldn't be surprised if conditions were similar to where the Brooks/Hansons Group has been training.


Desiree looks good!

Olympic Trials Marathon and Houston Marathon Weather Forecast T-8 & M-9

It's warm and humid today, but the models still show near ideal conditions for next Saturday and Sunday.

The 7.5-day model includes Olympic Trials morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] with the temperature in the 40°Fs and a very light west wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 34°F and stronger winds (10mph) in the morning.



The 8.5-16 day model still shows marathon morning on Sunday. Today's model shows the warmup even later on Monday, with temperature in the 40°Fs and a light northeast wind.



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 40%
Wind: NNE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%
Showers


For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NNE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 64%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 44°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 75%
Clear

For Sunday they show:
High 61°F
Precip 10%
Wind: S 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 32 °F RealFeel®: 32 °F
Clear
Winds NW at 5 mph with gusts to 10

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 58°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Sunny
Winds W at 6 mph with gusts to 19

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 38 °F
Clear
Winds WSW at 6 mph with gusts to 14

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Sunny
Winds SW at 9 mph with gusts to 23

2012 Olympic Trials Marathon and Houston Marathon T-10 & M-11 Weather Forecasts

I had more trouble with my knee and rested nearly all of December. The knee still doesn't feel right, but I'm trying to start running again to prepare for Boston. My running has been disappointing, but I'm still excited about the Olympic trials. The course is a little strange with lots of turns (way too many?), a little loop downtown and then three loops out to Shepherd and back to the GRB on Memorial and Allen Parkway. Here's a cute little animation showing the expected progression through the loops with the women's later start time.



It''s still early, but here's the forecast for the trials and the Houston Marathon.

The GFS 16-day model shows a nearly perfect Saturday for the trials with the temperature in the 40sºF and nearly no wind. Marathon Sunday looks more iffy, with a South wind and the dew point soaring from the 30s well into the 50s.


The forecast looks much worse at Accuweather:

Friday Night:
Low 43ºF, Shower late, Wind South at 6 mph with Gusts to 12
Saturday
High 69ºF, Rain, Wind South at 8 with Gusts to 21

Saturday Night:
Low 38ºF, Partly Cloudy, Wind West-Southwest at 10 mph with Gusts to 24
Sunday
High 51ºF, Sunny, Wind North-NorthWest at 19 with Gusts to 41!

The Weather Channel's forecast just goes up to Friday night. It agrees more with the 16-day GFS model:

Friday Night:
Low 40ºF, Partly Cloudy (0% Precipitation), Wind from North at 3 mph

2011: Not My Year

I haven't posted anything in months. 2011 has not been a good year for me. The Houston Marathon weather was a little too warm and humid for me and I ran a poor race. I was starting to put together some better training but then pulled my hamstring in April. I came back to run the Corpus Christi relay in May, but the heat and humidity of another record-breaking summer had already taken over any chance of decent running. Just as the first cooler mornings of September seemed within reach, I wrecked my car on the way home from work. I was traveling about 65 mph down Texas 36 and smashed into someone making a left turn onto the highway. My old car didn't have an air bag and I hit the steering wheel hard with my chest. It was pretty scary hearing the hospital emergency room announcing a trauma code after my triage. But the CT scans showed nothing was broken.
Nuke aside: The radiation dose from the CT scans was nearly half of my lifetime occupational radiation dose. I've been a radiation worker in nuclear power for over thirty years.
I expected the accident recovery to be similar to a marathon recovery. But after a week, I still couldn't take a deep breath and it hurt to just lie down in bed. After three to four weeks, I was finally able to start running seriously again. But a few weeks ago I tripped over an uneven concrete joint in the sidewalk near the bridge over the bayou. It was a stumbling fall, but I hit my left knee hard on the concrete. I ran a half mile home and found my left sock was soaked in blood and most of the skin was off my left kneecap. I didn't mind the wound much but the knee started hurting in the joint when I tried to run a couple days later. I don't know if I hurt the joint when my knee hit the concrete or if the stumble strained the knee. Regardless, I've had to take another couple weeks off.
I missed the 10-mile race because of the car accident, the half marathon because of the knee injury, and now the 25K...26.21875K...is next week. I'm overweight and out of shape. My longest run this fall has been 9 miles. And the nuke plant is in a refueling outage that has been eating up every weekend. I doubt I'll be able to run the 25K, er 26.21875K.
I neglected to register early for the 2012 Houston Marathon, assuming I would have plenty of time before the veterans deadline. But that deadline was November 1. So I guess I'm already out of Houston 2012. I would like to get in decent enough shape to race the 30K in December. But who knows.

Hamstring Injury...Why?

The pulled left hamstring was the worst injury I've had since December 2005. What happened?

The first hamstring pain on April 17th was completely out of the blue. I'd been dealing with some little niggles from my left knee and right Achilles tendon, but up until that Sunday afternoon I hadn't felt anything unusual from a hamstring. And then, Bam, less than two miles into a relatively easy run I had a sharp pain that convinced me to walk home. After a week of rest I tried running the next Sunday, but again before I'd run two miles, the sharp pain returned to the back of my left leg. I was frustrated enough to push the pain and run most of the way home. That stupid decision clearly led to a two and a half week layoff. But what happened to start the hamstring problem the week before?

I'd been running 50 to 60 miles a week through February and March, but a refueling outage at the nuke plant cut back training time so I was down to the mid-40s for the three weeks before the hamstring problem appeared. I was working on speeding up the Tuesday morning tempo-run. The run on April 5th was within a half second of my fastest Tuesday tempo of 2011 from early in March. April 12th was much warmer but the Tuesday tempo was only a little slower. I'd also added some strides, usually on Wednesday morning. I don't normally run strides, but I hadn't been doing any interval training and I was hoping the faster turnover during the strides would help in the shorter Spring races. I was doing four strides, after running two to four miles. The strides were gradual buildups over about 100 meters (I was just using street lights), accelerating up to a sprint and holding that pace for about 20 to 30 meters. At the time, I thought it was a conservative approach.

I never had any leg problems during the strides, but in retrospect they seem to be the most likely initiator of the hamstring injury. Strides are pretty traditional training, but next time I think I'll add 800s or 400s before I start running fast strides.