Uh-Oh M-5 2011 Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

Yesterday afternoon, the forecasts all had significant rises in predicted temperatures for Sunday. The GFS model is looking pretty bad (at least for a cold-weather person like me) with dewpoints at and above 60°F. Fortunately we shouldn't see extremely high dewpoints because water temperatures in the near-Gulf are in the 50s now and shouldn't heat up much during the week with more cool weather. But if the dewpoint is near 60°F Sunday, I'll need to slow my pace by at least 10 to 15 seconds per mile. Today's NWS discussion still has high uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

FLAT/BRIEF RIDGE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT/WEDS WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THURS TO KEEP TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO SIG-NIFICANT POPS WITH THIS FROPA AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW WITH NO ONSHORE WINDS IN THE INTERIM. HOWEVER THINGS PROGGED TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS AOA THE CA BAJA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING W/SWLY WINDS ALOFT AS FLOW AT THE SFC LOOKS TO DRAW A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF. SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE EX-TENDED WITH ECMWF RUNNING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN GFSLR AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAN MORE TO A SLOWER TIMING AS THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN WONT TO DO.

The hourly weather forecast shows decent temperatures up until about 9AM. At start time it's showing 51°F with the winds south at 7 mph, but 10AM shows temperature and dewpoint at 60°F with the south wind up to 10 mph. Five days out, you can't rely on an hour!

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature near 60°F, rain and a wind shift from a south wind to a northwest wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 56°F and wind at 9 mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 53°F
Precip 40%
Wind: SSE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
Showers


For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 30%
Wind: SSE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Few Showers


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 53°F RealFeel®: 51°F
Cloudy most of the time with a couple of showers
Winds SSW at 13 mph with gusts to 21

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 63°F RealFeel®: 62°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds NW at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Back to the Old Finish and Questionable Weather

The marathon course has a slight change this year. The downtown finish is back to the one used several years ago, with a straight shot through downtown and a quick left turn to finish in front of the GRB. I like it better than weaving through downtown and then that very long straightaway down Rusk to the north end of the GRB.
Here are the certification sketch and details:



Uncertainty about the timing of a cold front next weekend remains the big weather story. Today's NWS discussion highlights the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

WILL SEE A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT ON THURS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE FRI. LOW FCST CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT POINT. GFS STILL SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AND SHOW AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THRU THE WEEKEND. LEFT THE FCST AS-IS BEYOND FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TEMPS COULD BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

The hourly weather forecast has the colder version. At start time it's showing 39°F with the winds east at 6 mph.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature in the 40s°F and a stronger north-northeast wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 45°F and wind at 12 mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 46°F
Precip 20%
Wind: ENE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 70%
Mostly Cloudy


For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 20%
Wind: ENE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Cloudy


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 44°F RealFeel®: 35°F
Rain
Winds NE at 15 mph with gusts to 21

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 57°F RealFeel®: 53°F
Cloudy
Winds NE at 12 mph with gusts to 21

Week 17

Here's my seventeenth week of training for Houston '11:

69 miles for the week (January 17th to 23rd)

M: 12 at 7:07 mpm, 50ºF at 5AM went to work late after working late Sunday night
Tu: 7¼ at 8:27 mpm, 60ºF at 3:45AM
W AM: 7¼ at 7:00 mpm, 48ºF at 4AM
W PM: 5¼ overall average 7:01 with 3x1Mile/440rec (Miles in 5:58, 5:56, and 5:52), 57ºF at 7PM
Th: 6¾ at 8:15 mpm, 59ºF at 4AM
F: 10 at 6:57 mpm, 44ºF at 2PM
Sa: 7½ at 8:09 mpm, 53ºF at 2PM
Su: 13 at 7:00mpm, 64ºF at 1PM

I was happy with Wednesday's mile repeats until I saw I ran the same workout a couple years ago with the miles at 5:48.

There is some question now about the timing of the cold front next weekend. Today's NWS discussion talks about the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature about 50°F and a light south-southeast wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 49°F and wind at 8mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 44°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 70%
Scattered Showers


For Sunday they show:
High 61°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNE 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 59%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Scattered Showers


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 39 °F RealFeel®: 35°F
Cloudy
Winds NNE at 11mph with gusts to 17

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 56°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 25

Tracking the Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

The forecasts are starting to get meaningful now. Today's NWS discussion talks about the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

THIS DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE CARRYING SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S COLD FRONT. WHEN IT DOES MOVE THROUGH (WENT WITH A SATURDAY NIGHT PASSAGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE)...WE WILL SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE MONTH AND THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature about 40°F and a light north wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 44°F and stronger winds (10mph) in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NNW 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy


For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 0%
Wind: N 11 mph
Max. Humidity: 53%
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Sunny


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 31 °F RealFeel®: 24 °F
Mostly clear
Winds NNW at 12mph with gusts to 27

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 55°F RealFeel®: 52°F
Cooler with plenty of sun
Winds N at 11 mph with gusts to 26

M-10 Forecast

The GFS 16-day model still looks decent with the temperature in the 30sºF and a moderate North wind.


It doesn't look as good now at Accuweather:

Saturday Night:
Low 51ºF, Rain, Wind South at 8 mph with Gusts to 22
Sunday
High 69ºF, Showers, Wind South-SouthEast at 8 with Gusts to 20
The Global Forecast System 16-day model doesn't show anything above 50ºF near January 30th in Houston. I don't know how Accuweather is coming up with that forecast, but I would not like running the marathon in that weather.

The Weather Channel's forecast is closer to the GFS model, but still has some showers and is warmer:

Saturday Night:
Low 43ºF, Showers (60%), Wind East at 6 mph
Sunday
High 62ºF, Partly Cloudy, Wind North-NorthEast at 10

Bad Week to Be a Nuke Runner

It was a tough week at the nuke plant and that meant training suffered.
Here's my sixteenth week of training for Houston '11:

51 miles for the week (January 10th to 16th)

M AM: 6¾ at 8:35 mpm, 44ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 8¾ at 7:16 mpm, 41ºF at 3:30AM
W AM: 5¾ at 8:13 mpm, 32ºF at 4AM
W PM: missed
Th: 7¼ at 7:05 mpm, 36ºF at 4AM
F: 12½ at 7:14 mpm, 56ºF at 4PM
Sa: 10 at 8:22 mpm, 64ºF at 10AM
Su: missed


I had to work late Wednesday and missed Wednesday evening's track work. That really messes up the week's schedule. I decided to run hard Thursday morning, hoping to complete a hard day before an easy day Friday and a local 10K Saturday morning. I was supposed to evaluate a test at the nuke plant Friday, but it was delayed, so I squeezed in a medium long run late Friday afternoon, giving up on the 10K race. I ended up working all of Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning and then headed back to the plant again Sunday evening, completely missing the last long run before Houston.

The weather forecast for January 30 is a little worse now, same low temperature near 40, but now a north wind near 10 mph:


AccuWeather's forecast is similar to the model, but with a lower, more easterly wind.

Another Houston Marathon Weather Forecast

The long range weather forecast still looks very good (near 40 at the start and no wind):


The only problem is it's a long range forecast.