First Forecast

Here is the first forecast for January 30, Houston Marathon Day:


This one looks good with the temperature near 40 and the wind less than 6mph, but you know it will change.

I found the old elevation map Runner Triathlete News made when the marathon changed to the new course (with the Heights):


My week hasn't been too good. I came home from the power plant too late and missed another Wednesday evening track workout. Now I'm not sure whether I'll have to work during Saturday morning's race at Surfside.

Here's the starting list for the USATF Half Marathon Championship; looks like a good field:

Open Men's Half Marathon Championship
Abdi Abdirahman Nike
Austin Baillie unattached
Brock Baker unattached
Matt Barrett unattached
Brennan Benkert unattached
David Berdan Keystone Track Club
Fasil Bizuneh New Balance
Kyle Brady unattached
Trent Briney unattached
Warren Brown unattached
Daniel Browne U.S. Army
Ian Burrell unattached
Gian-Paul Caccia New York Athletic Club (NYAC)
Michael Chavez unattached
Robert Cheseret unattached
Joe Driscoll ZAP Fitness
Josh Eberly Brooks
Jeffrey Eggleston unattached
Jimmy Elam unattached
Chris Erichsen unattached
Donovan Fellows unattached
Jason Finch unattached
Matthew Folk unattached
Matthew Forys New York Athletic Club (NYAC)
Kenneth Foster U.S. Army
David Fuentes unattached
Matthew Gabrielson Team USA Minnesota / Reebok
Gus Gibbs River City Rebels
Dan Greeno unattached
Jason Griffiths unattached
Paul Guevara The Georgetown Running Company
Ryan Hall Asics
Nick Hird unattached
Paul Jellema unattached
Bryant Jensen Utah Elite
Leo Kormanik Atlanta Track Club
Roland Lavallee New Balance Boston
Jason Lehmkuhle Team USA Minnesota / Saucony
Craig Leon unattached
Scott MacPherson unattached
Tyler McCandless unattached
Joshua Moen Team USA Minnesota
Mike Morgan Hansons-Brooks Distance Project
Jose Munoz unattached
Skyler Nesheim unattached
Kenyon Neuman unattached
David Nightingale unattached
Miguel Nuci unattached
Oscar Ogwaro unattached
Jason Ordway unattached
Joshua Ordway unattached
Justin Patananan unattached
Joshua Perrin unattached
Kevin Pool River City Rebels
John Poray unattached
Eric Rasmussen Team Nebraska Brooks
Christopher Reis unattached
Bobby Reyes unattached
Sergio Reyes unattached
Patrick Rizzo unattached
Mikhail Sayenko Club Northwest
Patrick Smyth Nike
Erik Stanley unattached
Daniel Tapia unattached
Jorge Torres Reebok
Mohamed Trafeh Nike
Juan Carlos Trujillo Bowerman Athletic Club
Ryan Vail Brooks
Brent Vaughn Nike
Justin Young unattached

Open Women's Half Marathon Championship
Lindsay Allen McMillan Elite
Ann Alyanak RUNOHIO Racing Team / Brooks
Sarah Bashinski-Flament RUNOHIO Racing Team / Infinite Running
Addie Bracy unattached
Serena Burla RIADHA
Kelly Calway U.S. Army
Dawn Charlier unattached
Kelly Chin unattached
Caitlin Chrisman unattached
Michelle Corrigan unattached
Abby Dean unattached
Esther Erb ZAP Fitness
Robyn Friedman unattached
Zoila Gomez unattached
Clara Grandt RIADHA
Amy Hastings Brooks
Jennifer Houck unattached
Nan Kennard unattached
Loretta Kilmer RIADHA
Magdalena Lewy Boulet Saucony
Kaci Lickteig Team Nebraska Brooks
Katie McGregor Team USA Minnesota / Reebok
Dot McMahan Hansons-Brooks Distance Project
Sally Meyerhoff unattached
Nina Miller unattached
Erin Moeller unattached
Tera Moody unattached
Kristen Nicolini Team USA Minnesota / Saucony
Ruth Perkins Club Northwest
Jackie Pirtle-Hall unattached
Emily Potter U.S. Army
Danielle Quatrochi unattached
Jennifer Rhines adidas
Lindsey Scherf unattached
Cassandra Slade unattached
Kara Storage RUNOHIO Racing Team / Infinite Running
Tara Storage RUNOHIO Racing Team / Infinite Running
Leah Thorvilson unattached
Kayte Tranel Team Nebraska Brooks
Heidi Westover unattached
Caroline White U.S. Air Force
Melissa White Hansons-Brooks Distance Project
Kelly Williamson unattached
Heather Wood unattached

Finally Some sub-MP Running

Here's my fifteenth week of training for Houston '11:

84¾ miles for the week (January 3rd to January 9th)

M AM: 6¾ at 8:29 mpm, 42ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 9½ at 7:13 mpm, 62ºF at 3:30AM
W AM: 7¼ at 7:38 mpm, 72ºF at 4AM
W PM: 7 at an average pace of 7:02 with 6x1,200/400rec (1,200s at 4:32, 4:31, 4:30,4:30, 4:29, and 4:25), 57ºF at 7PM
Th AM: 6¼ at 8:28 mpm, 51ºF at 4AM
Th PM: missed
F: 15 at 7:10 mpm, 70ºF at 3PM
Sa: 10¾ at 8:37 mpm, 58ºF at 2PM
Su: 22¼ at 7:31 mpm, 53ºF from 2PM

At least I finally ran a speed workout. The 1,200s weren't fast at all, but I'm happy to have finished them. I've been worried about the stress of running that fast on the track (my left knee still gives some occasional niggles) but there were no problems. I used my old Saucony Fastwitches; they still feel good with over 600 miles on them.
Just three more weeks before Houston.

Another Frustrating Week

Here's my fourteenth week of training for Houston '11:

84½ miles for the week (December 27th to January 2nd)

M: 12½ at 8:22 mpm, 54ºF at 2PM (day off from work)
Tu: 7¾ at 7:28 mpm, 61ºF at 4AM
W AM: 7¼ at an average of 7:25 mpm, 66ºF at 4AM
W PM: missed
Th: 10¼ at 7:19 mpm, 67ºF at 3:30AM
F: 15 at 7:48 mpm, 72ºF at 4PM
Sa: 10¼ at 9:10 mpm, 57ºF at 6PM
Su: 21½ at 7:18 mpm, 53ºF from 2PM

I messed up again this week with four days of fairly hard runs in a row, but missing the interval session again. I had planned on running the track Wednesday evening but never made it. So I got up early Thursday morning to put in some more miles. But that left me dragging on a warm and humid Friday. At least Sunday's long run wasn't too bad.

Weary Week 13

Here's my thirteenth week of training for Houston '11:

77 miles for the week (December 20th to December 26th)


M AM: 5¾ at 8:49 mpm, 66ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 7¾ at 7:25 mpm, 67ºF at 4AM
W AM: 6¾ at 7:34 mpm, 65ºF at 4AM
W PM: missed
Th: 11 at 7:18 mpm, 59ºF at 10AM (day off from work)
F: 15 at 7:10 mpm, 65ºF at 10AM
Sa: 9¾ at 9:03 mpm, 38ºF at 10PM very easy after eating all day
Su: 21 at 7:32 mpm, 48ºF from 2PM

This was not a very good week. I messed up running four days fairly hard in a row, but missing the hard runs I actually need (namely 6x1,000 on Wednesday). My left knee has started bothering me again and I've been hesitant about running fast. This week's schedule calls for a race Saturday, but there are no New Year's Day races down here. The local college kids are talking about a 2-miler on the track Saturday afternoon; I might have to try and run that one with them. I really need to bear down and run a decent LT this week.

Houston Marathon Training Week 12, 6 More Weeks to Go

Here's the twelfth week of training for Houston 2011:

84 miles for the week (December 13th to December 19th)

M: 10 at 8:25 mpm, 53ºF at Noon (day off from work)
Tu: 10 at 8:27 mpm, 68ºF at 11AM (day off from work)
W: 15 at an average of 7:13 mpm, 73ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
Th: 6¾ at 8:22 mpm, 67ºF at 4AM
F: 15 at 7:10 mpm, 59ºF at 1PM
Sa: 10 at 8:27 mpm, 48ºF at 9AM
Su: 17¼ at 7:19 mpm, 63ºF from 9PM after Christmas shopping all day

This was another week of deviating from the old Pfitz schedule. The30K race last Sunday is a big stresser and I didn't want to risk pushing too hard too early. I blew off the 600s scheduled for Tuesday and substituted another recovery day. The schedule had an 8 to 15 Km race scheduled for Saturday, but substituted a fairly hard medium long run on Friday. Sunday's long run took some motivation. I'm glad that one's done.

It's race preparation time. I think I need to focus on completing more of the LT and interval runs. I just haven't felt comfortable running faster than MP and running them solo down here even makes seem even more difficult.

Week 11, 30K Race, and Choosing a Goal Marathon Pace

Here's my eleventh week of training for Houston '11:

82¾ miles for the week (December 6th to December 12th)

The eleventh week is the toughest one of the 18-week old Pfitz plan I sort of follow. The plan has 93 miles with a 24 mile long run and another day with 16 miles including 7 miles at LT. But I had a 30K race Sunday, so I deviated quite a bit from the plan.

M: 10 at 8:33 mpm, 54ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
Tu: 15 at 7:10 mpm, 60ºF at 1:30PM (day off from work)
W: 12½ at an average of 6:59 mpm with the last few miles at about 6:20 to 6:30, 50ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
Th: 5¾ at 8:22 mpm, 39ºF at 4AM, First run under 40ºF this Fall; I had to search hard to find some gloves
F: 12½ at 7:51 mpm, 72ºF at 12:30 windy and humid, planned on an easy day at this pace, but felt awful and had to push hard to stay under 8 mpm
Sa: 7½ at 8:21 mpm, 74ºF at Noon, very windy and humid
Su: 19½ with a 30K race at 6:30 mpm, 43ºF at 7AM with the wind picking up from North 9 to NorthWest 16 with 25 gusts

Sugar Land FLS 30K
I felt good about this race early in the week. The runs Tuesday and Wednesday felt great and 6:20 miles seemed effortless finishing Wednesday's run. I was thinking sub-2 was a very reasonable goal for the 30K and was actually hoping I would be closer to 1:58 with decent weather. But Friday's run was awful and my left knee was giving me strange pains most of Friday and Saturday.

The temperature Sunday morning was near perfect for me. The wind wasn't bad as predicted either (but it did pick up during the race). With the cool temperatures, I thought I had an excellent shot at the last Houston Marathon local invited runner spot. These invited runner spots have great perquisites: a comp'd entry fee, a lunch on Friday, flush toilets with no line before the race, starting on the line with the real elites, warm-up clothing pickup from the starting line, fluids on the course, .... But Houston has a very competitive field of 50 year old runners. SimC, el Tigre, picked up the spot for the 10-miler, RichardP earned his spot in the half marathon, and RichF got a spot in the 25K. When I saw RobW at the starting line, I knew the 30K invited runner would be far below the required qualifying time.

1) 6:30 I felt as though I was breathing way too hard for a 6:30.
2) 6:23 - 12:53 settled into a decent pace, running with HeidyL and KerryL
3) 6:27 - 19:20
4) 6:25 - 25:45 start the first Palm Royale loop, saw RobW was just behind
5) 6:25 - 32:10 got in a good group with RichardP, KerryL, and HeidyL up ahead
6) 6:30 - 38:40
7) 6:26 - 45:06 RobW pulled into the group
8) 6:29 - 51:36 end of the first loop
9) 6:17 - 57:53
10-11) 12:52 - 1:10:45 RichardP pulled away while KerryL and HeidyL dropped back
12)6:31 - 1:17:17 RobW pulled me most of the way into the wind, end of the second loop
13-14)12:59 - 1:30:16 led RobW into the water stop starting the third loop, but left the corner with a big gap behind RobW
15) 6:38 - 1:36:55 heading back into the wind on the third loop
16) 6:46 - 1:43:41 lost contact with RobW in the crowd of second loop runners
17) 6:45 - 1:50:25 caught up to JosephR as we left the third loop
Picture by TuanN

18) 6:39 - 1:57:05 JosephR pulled away from me, but RobW was coming back
30K 4:10 - 2:01:15 RobW was just too far away to try and catch him

RobW picked up the invited runner spot by 15 seconds.



Congratulations Rob!


Rob and I both lived on the 5th Floor of Sid Richardson College at Rice U back in 1978 (before I was bald):

Here's a hint to tell who's who.

Choosing a Marathon Pace
Choosing the right pace to run a marathon isn't easy. If you just go by what feels sustainable on race day, you're doomed to crash around mile 18 or 20. It takes so long to recover from a marathon, you can't just run a time trial a few weeks before the race. So we're stuck with using performance from a shorter race and scaling it to the marathon. There are several different methods to calculate equivalent performances, but the basic approach relies on correlating pace versus distance raced for a standard population.

Here's how the Finish Line Sports 30K has correlated to my time in the Houston Marathon:

30K Race	Equivalent Marathon	Houston Marathon	Comments
1998 2:13:48	(3:12:44)	3:21:12	Upper 60s to low 70s and humid marathon
1999 2:12:01	(3:10:09)	3:29:47	Sunny Marathon day, 58-73ºF, dewpoint 57-61ºF
2000 2:08:54	(3:05:40)	3:56:23	Had the flu; ran a 3:19 at Austin
2001 2:08:55	(3:05:42)	3:15:24
2002 2:03:00	(2:57:10)	2:58:53	Higher mileage marathon training
2003 1:59:28	(2:52:05)	2:55:46
2004 2:00:31	(2:53:36)	2:57:51
2005 1:57:07	(2:48:42)	DNS	Injured one week after the 30K
2006 1:57:57	(2:49:54)	2:54:33
2007 2:04:53	(2:59:53)	2:51:42	71-74ºF and humid during the 30K
2008 missed		2:58:02
2009 2:03:44	(2:58:14)	2:57:37
2010 2:01:15	(2:54:39)	?	We'll see

Weather has an enormous influence on how I race. The early years also show that at lower training volume, I lacked endurance. The extra eight miles of the marathon took more out of me than the 30K would predict. In 2002 I increased my training volume and the marathon times started coming out closer to the 30K equivalents.

So what's my goal if the weather is decent on January 30th?
I always wanted to run under 2:50, but that's not realistic.
2:50:59 would give me Two Hours Plus Age, but that's not going to happen.
2:51:41 would be a PR, but that won't be threatened.
I guess I'll go for a first corral time at Boston. It's a moving target (2:54:37 in 2010, 2:55:10 in 2009, 2:55:20 in 2008, 2:55:56 in 2007,....a 2:55:46 gave me bib number 1834 in 2005) so I'll probably need about 2:54 (6:38 mpm). I might be able to get vacation in April 2012. When the power plant has refueling outages they don't allow vacation. April 2012 will be my first chance at an April vacation day since 2005. Starting just behind the elites at Hopkinton is pretty cool.

Houston Marathon Training Week 10

Here's my tenth week of training for Houston '11:

85¾ miles for the week (November 29th to December 5th)

M AM: 6¼ at 8:27 mpm, 73ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 9½ at 6:57 mpm, 63ºF at 3:45AM
W: 13 at an average of 7:13 mpm with 6x600/200 recoveries, 59ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
Th: 10 at 8:39 mpm, 67ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
F: 15 at 7:28 mpm, 73ºF at Noon
Sa: 10 at 8:28 mpm, 75ºF at Noon
Su: 22 at 7:20 mpm, started at about 7:40 and worked down to about 6:40 for the last two miles, 57ºF from 2PM

Next Sunday is my big test: the 30K race. Unfortunately, the weather forecast shows Saturday and Sunday as warm and humid.