Nuke Runner

Nowhere to Boston in 12 Weeks

2012-01-23T21:38:00.002-06:00

I'm registered for the Boston Marathon and it will happen April 16th whether I'm ready or not. The left knee still doesn't feel right, but after three weeks of easy running, at least it hasn't gotten worse. I'm down to buying new shoes. My work shoes were completely worn out, so I have a new sturdier pair (you have to walk a couple miles a day at the nuke plant). I ordered a pair of Saucony Mirage running shoes, hoping they're similar to the old Tangents. We'll see how it goes.

For the Record

2012-01-15T11:23:00.013-06:00

Conditions ended up being pretty good for both the 2012 Olympic Trials Marathon and the 2012 Houston Marathon.

For the 2012 Houston Marathon, conditions at Hobby Airport were:
10:53 wind SE 6 Vis 10 Mostly Cloudy 64°F 51°F dew point
09:53 wind SE 5 Vis 10 Mostly Cloudy 58°F 49°F dew point
08:53 wind SE 3 Vis 10 Mostly Cloudy 52°F 46°F dew point
07:53 Calm Vis 10 Mostly Cloudy 43°F 39°F dew point
06:53 Calm Vis 10 Partly Cloudy 39°F 36°F dew point

For the 2012 Olympic Trials, weather conditions at Hobby Airport were:
10:53 wind W 8 Vis 10 A Few Clouds 56°F 30°F dew point
09:53 wind W 8 Vis 10 A Few Clouds 51°F 33°F dew point
08:53 wind SW 5 Vis 10 A Few Clouds 44°F 34°F dew point
07:53 wind SW5 Vis 10 Partly Cloudy 35°F 29°F dew point

I took some pictures during the OT race and posted them here.

My camera isn't very good and the battery ran out, so several of these are from my phone.

2012 Olympic Trials and Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts T-1 & M-2

2012-01-13T20:23:00.013-06:00

The forecast continues to show more Gulf air coming in this weekend, but the cold Canadian air that's in place seems strong enough to keep conditions very good both Saturday and Sunday.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE STATE...A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES.
FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH THE COLDEST MODEL/MOS COMBINATION...THE GFS AND MAV...AND THEN TWEAKED SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST DOWNWARD. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME UPPER 20S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10... HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE BELOW 30 WILL EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 NORTHEAST OF METRO HOUSTON. MOST AREAS INLAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WILL PROBABLY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ONE MORE NIGHT.
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE GFS WAS TOO MOIST ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF THROUGH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY.

The 84-hour model has the temperature near 40°F with a west-southwest wind below 6 mph for the OTs and no rain. The model has Sunday morning at 50°F a south wind at 4 mph and with increasing warmth and humidity during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a colder low of 38°F with the 'wind' at 1 mph Saturday morning and a low of 46°F and wind at 2 mph Sunday morning.

The hourly forecast still shows a cooler morning low temperature at 34°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-southwest 'wind' at 2 mph. At 10AM, it shows 45°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-southwest "wind" at 3 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 42°F, dew point at 39°F, and a south wind at 5 mph and at 10AM, it shows 52°F, dew point at 43°F, and a south-southeast wind at 8 mph. Saturday is still nearly perfect, and Sunday is still very good and the prediction hasn't warmed up to much from yesterday's forecast.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday they show:
8AM
41°F, Feels Like 38°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Humidity: 62%
Sunny

10AM
50°F, Feels Like 48°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 5 mph
Humidity: 46%
Sunny

For Sunday they show:

7AM
47°F, Feels Like 46°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSE 3 mph
Humidity: 77%
Cloudy

9AM
53°F, Feels Like 52°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSE 4 mph
Humidity: 71%
Cloudy

10AM
57°F, Feels Like 56°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSE 6 mph
Humidity: 67%
Cloudy

11AM
60°F, Feels Like 59°F
Precip 30%
Wind: SSE 9 mph
Humidity: 62%
Few Showers

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday, Jan 14
8AM
37°F RealFeel®: 39°F
Dew Point 24°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds WSW at 2 mph

10AM
49°F RealFeel®: 55°F
Dew Point 26°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds WSW at 3 mph

Accuweather has the wind picking up more during the day
Sunday, Jan 15

7AM
47°F RealFeel®: 41°F
Dew Point 40°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 7 mph

9AM
52°F RealFeel®: 46°F
Dew Point 43°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 11 mph

10AM
56°F RealFeel®: 51°F
Dew Point 45°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 13 mph

11AM
59°F RealFeel®: 54°F
Dew Point 47°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SSE at 15 mph

Here's Runner's World's review of the top men and the top women

Here's a video of Magdalena Lewy-Boulet:

And here's an interview with Deena:

And Mo Trafeh

and Amy Hastings:

MEN
1. 2:04:58 Ryan Hall (CA) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:09:13 Meb Keflezighi (CA) 2011 New York City Marathon
3. 2:10:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (OR) 2009 London Marathon
4. 2:10:36 Brett Gotcher (AZ) 2010 Houston Marathon
5. 2:11:06 Jason Hartmann (OR) 2010 Chicago Marathon
6. 2:11:30 Nick Arciniaga (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:11:46 Ed Moran (VA) 2011 New York City Marathon
8. 2:12:24 Jason Lehmkuhle (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon
9. 2:13:00 Jorge Torres (CO) 2009 New York City Marathon
10. 2:13:12 Jeffrey Eggleston (AZ) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
11. 2:13:28 Matthew Gabrielson (MN) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:13:47 Antonio Vega (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon

WOMEN
1. 2:22:38 Desiree Davila (MI) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:24:52 Kara Goucher (OR) 2011 Boston Marathon
3. 2:26:22 Magdalena Lewy Boulet (CA)2010 Fortis Marathon Rotterdam
4. 2:27:03 Amy Hastings (CA) 2011 LA Marathon
5. 2:28:40 Shalane Flanagan (OR) 2010 New York Marathon
6. 2:29:35 Stephanie Rothstein (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:29:54 Clara Grandt (WV) 2011 Boston Marathon
8. 2:30:51 Colleen De Reuck (CO) 2010 Copenhagen Marathon
9. 2:30:53 Tera Moody (CO) 2010 Chicago Marathon
10. 2:31:01 Katie McGregor (MN) 2010 New York City Marathon
11. 2:31:48 Dot McMahan (MI) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:31:49 Ilsa Paulson (NY) 2009 USA Women's Marathon Championships

Getting Close - Houston and OT Marathon

2012-01-12T21:18:00.011-06:00

Here's a slick video of Jason Lehmkule and Team USA Minnesota:

Marathon Road from Paul Sanft on Vimeo.

The forecast continues to show more Gulf air coming in this weekend, but the cold Canadian air that arrived today seems strong enough to keep conditions very good both Saturday and Sunday.
WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS SHOWN BY THE MODEL...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM UP WILL THEN BEGIN LATER SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.
THE MODELS ARE THEN SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FORMS OVERHEAD AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

The 84-hour model has the temperature just above 40°F with a west wind at 6 mph for the OTs and no rain. The model has Sunday morning in the upper 40s a south wind less than 6 mph and with an increasing warmth humidity during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 34°F with the 'wind' at 1 mph Saturday morning and a low of 47°F and wind at 3 mph Sunday morning.

The hourly forecast still shows a cooler morning low temperature at 33°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west 'wind' at 1 mph. At 10AM, it shows 45°F, dew point at 27°F, and a west-southwest "wind" at 2 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 44°F, dew point at 36°F, and a east-southeast wind at 1 mph and at 10AM, it shows 53°F, dew point at 41°F, and a east-southeast wind at 7 mph. Saturday is still nearly perfect, and Sunday is still very good and the prediction hasn't warmed up to much from yesterday's forecast.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday they show:
8AM
41°F, Feels Like 39°F
Precip 0%
Wind: W 3 mph
Humidity: 62%
Sunny

10AM
50°F, Feels Like 49°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Humidity: 46%
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:

Overnight Low 425F
Precip 0%
Wind: S 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 68°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSE 9 mph
Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Mostly Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 38°F RealFeel®: 37°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 5 mph with gusts to 8

Saturday, Jan 14
8AM
40°F RealFeel®: 41°F
Dew Point 23°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds SW at 2 mph

10AM
50°F RealFeel®: 56°F
Dew Point 25°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds SW at 3 mph

Sunday, Jan 15

7AM
47°F RealFeel®: 42°F
Dew Point 36°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds ESE at 7 mph

9AM
50°F RealFeel®: 47°F
Dew Point 38°F
Partly Sunny
Winds ESE at 8 mph

10AM
54°F RealFeel®: 53°F
Dew Point 39°F
Partly Sunny
Winds ESE at 8 mph

11AM
57°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Dew Point 39°F
Partly Sunny
Winds ESE at 8 mph

Here's Runner's World's review of the top men and the top women

Here's a video of Kara Goucher:

MEN
1. 2:04:58 Ryan Hall (CA) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:09:13 Meb Keflezighi (CA) 2011 New York City Marathon
3. 2:10:00 Dathan Ritzenhein (OR) 2009 London Marathon
4. 2:10:36 Brett Gotcher (AZ) 2010 Houston Marathon
5. 2:11:06 Jason Hartmann (OR) 2010 Chicago Marathon
6. 2:11:30 Nick Arciniaga (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:11:46 Ed Moran (VA) 2011 New York City Marathon
8. 2:12:24 Jason Lehmkuhle (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon
9. 2:13:00 Jorge Torres (CO) 2009 New York City Marathon
10. 2:13:12 Jeffrey Eggleston (AZ) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
11. 2:13:28 Matthew Gabrielson (MN) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:13:47 Antonio Vega (MN) 2010 Boston Marathon

WOMEN
1. 2:22:38 Desiree Davila (MI) 2011 Boston Marathon
2. 2:24:52 Kara Goucher (OR) 2011 Boston Marathon
3. 2:26:22 Magdalena Lewy Boulet (CA)2010 Fortis Marathon Rotterdam
4. 2:27:03 Amy Hastings (CA) 2011 LA Marathon
5. 2:28:40 Shalane Flanagan (OR) 2010 New York Marathon
6. 2:29:35 Stephanie Rothstein (AZ) 2011 Houston Marathon
7. 2:29:54 Clara Grandt (WV) 2011 Boston Marathon
8. 2:30:51 Colleen De Reuck (CO) 2010 Copenhagen Marathon
9. 2:30:53 Tera Moody (CO) 2010 Chicago Marathon
10. 2:31:01 Katie McGregor (MN) 2010 New York City Marathon
11. 2:31:48 Dot McMahan (MI) 2011 Grandma's Marathon
12. 2:31:49 Ilsa Paulson (NY) 2009 USA Women's Marathon Championships

T-3 & M-4 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Forecast

2012-01-11T21:11:00.007-06:00

The forecast continues to show more Gulf air coming in this weekend, but Marathon morning still looks good. But if the forecast keeps changing...?
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. A GRADUAL WARM UP CAN THEN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A WARMER RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF SETS UP. WILL CARRY 20% POPS FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

The 84-hour model has the temperature near 40°F but with nearly no wind for the OTs and no rain. The 7.5-day model has Sunday morning near 40 but with an increasing wind from the south and humidity increasing during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 34°F with the wind at 5 mph Saturday morning and a low of 39°F and winds at 5 mph Sunday morning.

The hourly forecast still shows a cooler morning low temperature at 35°F, dew point at 24°F, and a north wind at 2 mph. At 10AM, it shows 46°F, dew point at 25°F, and a east "wind" at 1 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 40°F, dew point at 40°F, and a south-southeast wind at 2 mph and at 10AM, it shows 50°F, dew point at 43°F, and a southeast wind at 6 mph. Saturday is still nearly perfect, and Sunday is still very good but if the trend keeps going, Sunday might get to a little warm and humid.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NW 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
Partly CLoudy

For Saturday they show:
High 63°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SW 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 42°F
Precip 0%
Wind: S 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 10%
Wind: SSE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 38°F RealFeel®: 37°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 5 mph with gusts to 8

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 62°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Mostly Sunny
Winds ESE at 6 mph with gusts to 10

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 40°F RealFeel®: 41°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds SE at 5 mph with gusts to 9

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Partly Sunny
Winds SE at 7 mph with gusts to 13

Today's OT runner is Abdi Abdirahman from Tuscon. He's another bald guy I'll be cheering on Saturday.

And today's video is a summary of the top contenders by Runner's World:

No Excuses T-4 & M-5 OT and Houston Marathon Forecast

2012-01-10T21:38:00.007-06:00

The forecast is showing some more Gulf air coming in Sunday and warming temperatures, but Marathon morning still looks very good.
CANADIAN COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE N PLAINS SHOULD PLUNGE SOUTH TOMORROW AND REACH SE TX WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM BUT THE 18Z NAM HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THEM AS FAR AS FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT SHOULD REACH AND PUSH OFF THE
COAST CLOSE TO 09Z THU. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY SO HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER SE TX THU NIGHT SO FRI MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SAT MORNING MIN TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY AS WELL BUT WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS REACHING FREEZING. COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL HOLD ON FOR SAT SO KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS NW FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT TODAY OVER THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. EXPECT OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE WHEN THIS LOW KICKS EAST ACROSS THE S ROCKIES. MODELS SHOW SOME RETURN FLOW LATE SUN INTO MON WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SHEARING OUT SYSTEM. GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM... BUT STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO INCLUDE 20 POPS ON MON FOR THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BE QUITE THE RAIN MAKER THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY ACROSS SE TX.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 30°Fs but with nearly no wind for the OTs and no rain. Sunday morning starts warmer, near 40 also with nearly no wind, and no rain but warming up with humidity increasing during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport still shows a much colder low of 32°F with the wind at 12 mph Saturday morning and a low of 35°F and winds at 7 mph Sunday morning.

The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It now shows a cooler morning low temperature at 35°F, dew point at 26°F, and a west-northwest wind at 3 mph. At 10AM, it shows 45°F, dew point at 28°F, and a west wind at 3 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 40°F, dew point at 33°F, and a west wind at 6 mph and at 10AM, it shows 50°F, dew point at 35°F, and a south-southwest wind at 6 mph. Both days are still "no excuses" running conditions.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 34°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NW 1 mph
Max. Humidity: 55%
Partly CLoudy

For Saturday they show:
High 62°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 52%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 39°F
Precip 0%
Wind: SSW 2 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 65°F
Precip 10%
Wind: ESE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 15 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 34°F RealFeel®: 31°F
Clear
Winds SW at 6 mph with gusts to 13

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 62°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds NW at 10 mph with gusts to 17

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 41°F RealFeel®: 39°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds NE at 7 mph with gusts to 12

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SE at 8 mph with gusts to 14

Here's some more of Hanson's-Brooks Desiree Davila and Mike Morgan training in the cold today.

T-5 &M-7 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guessing

2012-01-09T19:43:00.010-06:00

Well we can check floods and tornados of the list for this week. The NWS discussion still indicates some real Canadian air will finally be coming down to the Gulf, but there is more uncertainty today about race weekend:
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD DAY THU WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS HAVE NO AGREEMENT WHAT SO EVER. GFS NOW DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT SAT WHICH HAS CHANGED ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODEL RUNS AND HAS NO CONSISTENCY. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL FOLLOW THE 12Z ECMWF OR BASICALLY KEEPING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GOING. DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF A FREEZE FRI MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND CALM WINDS. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THIS WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs but with a much stronger east-northeast wind for the OTs and the chance of some light rain. Sunday morning starts much colder, in the 30s but with a very light north wind, a chance of light rain and still very little warmup during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a much colder low of 32°F with the wind at 12 mph Saturday morning and a low of 392°F and winds at 13 mph Sunday morning.

The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It now shows a warmer morning low temperature at 39°F, dew point at 33°F, and a southwest wind at 6 mph. At 10AM, it shows 46°F, dew point at 34°F, and a southwest wind at 5 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 43°F, dew point at 39°F, and a north wind at 3 mph and at 10AM, it shows 51°F, dew point at 42°F, and a east wind at 6 mph. I would call both days "no excuses" running conditions.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 10%
Wind: E 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
Mostly Clear

For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 66%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 43°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNW 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 79%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 77%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 39°F RealFeel®: 35°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds E at 9 mph with gusts to 14

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 45°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Rain
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Cloudy
Winds ENE at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Today's video for the men's OT race is Dathan Ritzenhein

Watch more video of NYRR Dash to the Finish Line (5K) 2011 on flotrack.org

Today's video for the woman's OT race is the pre-race favorite, Shalane Flanagan

T-6 & M-7 OT and Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

2012-01-08T18:27:00.012-06:00

Today's Men's OT video is Meb training in California.

I'll be cheering for Meb; we bald guys need to stick together.

It was warm and humid again today. The NWS discussion indicates some real Canadian air will finally be coming down to the Gulf, just in time for race weekend:
THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. LONG WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST BY 12Z THU. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY 12Z THU WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA BY FRI MORNING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THU AND THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA FRI. MAY HAVE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO PUSH BY THE AREA THU/FRI SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MODELS BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH 20 POPS ON DAY 8. LOOKS LIKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE AND FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER.

The 7.5-day model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs with a very light north wind for the OTs. Sunday morning starts warmer near 50 with a stronger east wind, a chance of rain and very little warmup during the day. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a much colder low of 34°F and stronger winds (10 mph) Saturday morning and a low of 42°F and winds at 9 mph Sunday morning.

The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs and the start of the marathon Sunday. It shows a colder morning low temperature at 34°F, dew point at 29°F, and a north-northeast wind at 7 mph. At 10AM, it shows 44°F, dew point at 31°F, and a northeast wind at 7 mph. For 7AM Sunday, the forecast shows 38°F, dew point at 36°F, and a east-northeast wind at 6 mph.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 37°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 5 mph
Max. Humidity: 69%
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday they show:
High 56°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NNE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 63%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 50%
Wind: NNE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 76%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 53°F
Precip 40%
Wind: NNE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 65%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Showers

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 36°F RealFeel®: 26°F
Clear
Winds N at 14 mph with gusts to 23

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 57°F RealFeel®: 55°F
Sunny
Winds NNW at 12 mph with gusts to 23

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 37°F RealFeel®: 33°F
Clear
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 19

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Cloudy
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 24

Today's video for the woman's OT race is Jen Rhines:

Watch more video of Jen Rhines on flotrack.org

Here are some projections for the OT race. I don't believe it's such a sure thing as theat poll would have you believe.

OT and Houston Marathon Weather Guesses T-7 & M-8

2012-01-07T20:24:00.008-06:00

It's warm and humid again today, but the models still show a cold front arriving Tuesday and staying through next Monday. That's a long time for a cold front to hang around this winter. I wonder if it will really happen that way. The cold fronts this year seem to turn around in a day or two, and the warm Gulf air almost immediately raises temperatures and humidity. I think the forecast for the OTs is OK, but I'd be surprised if the cool weather hangs along through Sunday.

The 7.5-day model includes both races now. [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] The model still has the temperature in the 40°Fs with a very light north wind now. Sunday morning also starts in the 40s but with a little stronger east wind. The text version of the GFSX MOS model for Hobby Airport shows a low of 47°F and stronger winds (11mph) Saturday morning and a low of 39°F and stronger winds (13mph) Sunday morning.

The hourly forecast now shows conditions for the OTs. It shows a colder morning low temperature at 40°F with a north wind at 8 mph.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 10%
Wind: N 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy

For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NE 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 62%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Few Showers

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%
Mostly Clear

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 0%
Wind: N 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 63%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 43°F RealFeel®: 40°F
Cloudy
Winds E at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 64°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Partly CLoudy
Winds N at 5 mph with gusts to 16

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 44°F RealFeel®: 44°F
Clear
Winds SW at 6 mph with gusts to 16

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 58°F RealFeel®: 57°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SSW at 8 mph with gusts to 22

It will be warmer than where these guys have been training.

I wouldn't be surprised if conditions were similar to where the Brooks/Hansons Group has been training.

Desiree looks good!

Olympic Trials Marathon and Houston Marathon Weather Forecast T-8 & M-9

2012-01-06T20:30:00.008-06:00

It's warm and humid today, but the models still show near ideal conditions for next Saturday and Sunday.

The 7.5-day model includes Olympic Trials morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] with the temperature in the 40°Fs and a very light west wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 34°F and stronger winds (10mph) in the morning.

The 8.5-16 day model still shows marathon morning on Sunday. Today's model shows the warmup even later on Monday, with temperature in the 40°Fs and a light northeast wind.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Friday night they show:
Overnight Low 38°F
Precip 40%
Wind: NNE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 71%
Showers

For Saturday they show:
High 58°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NNE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 64%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Sunny

For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 44°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 75%
Clear

For Sunday they show:
High 61°F
Precip 10%
Wind: S 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:18 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Friday Night, Jan 13
Low: 32 °F RealFeel®: 32 °F
Clear
Winds NW at 5 mph with gusts to 10

Saturday, Jan 14
High: 58°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Sunny
Winds W at 6 mph with gusts to 19

Saturday Night, Jan 14
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 38 °F
Clear
Winds WSW at 6 mph with gusts to 14

Sunday, Jan 15
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Sunny
Winds SW at 9 mph with gusts to 23

2012 Olympic Trials Marathon and Houston Marathon T-10 & M-11 Weather Forecasts

2012-01-04T21:04:00.014-06:00

I had more trouble with my knee and rested nearly all of December. The knee still doesn't feel right, but I'm trying to start running again to prepare for Boston. My running has been disappointing, but I'm still excited about the Olympic trials. The course is a little strange with lots of turns (way too many?), a little loop downtown and then three loops out to Shepherd and back to the GRB on Memorial and Allen Parkway. Here's a cute little animation showing the expected progression through the loops with the women's later start time.

It''s still early, but here's the forecast for the trials and the Houston Marathon.

The GFS 16-day model shows a nearly perfect Saturday for the trials with the temperature in the 40sºF and nearly no wind. Marathon Sunday looks more iffy, with a South wind and the dew point soaring from the 30s well into the 50s.

The forecast looks much worse at Accuweather:

Friday Night:
Low 43ºF, Shower late, Wind South at 6 mph with Gusts to 12
Saturday
High 69ºF, Rain, Wind South at 8 with Gusts to 21

Saturday Night:
Low 38ºF, Partly Cloudy, Wind West-Southwest at 10 mph with Gusts to 24
Sunday
High 51ºF, Sunny, Wind North-NorthWest at 19 with Gusts to 41!

The Weather Channel's forecast just goes up to Friday night. It agrees more with the 16-day GFS model:

Friday Night:
Low 40ºF, Partly Cloudy (0% Precipitation), Wind from North at 3 mph

2011: Not My Year

2011-11-06T21:53:00.009-06:00

I haven't posted anything in months. 2011 has not been a good year for me. The Houston Marathon weather was a little too warm and humid for me and I ran a poor race. I was starting to put together some better training but then pulled my hamstring in April. I came back to run the Corpus Christi relay in May, but the heat and humidity of another record-breaking summer had already taken over any chance of decent running. Just as the first cooler mornings of September seemed within reach, I wrecked my car on the way home from work. I was traveling about 65 mph down Texas 36 and smashed into someone making a left turn onto the highway. My old car didn't have an air bag and I hit the steering wheel hard with my chest. It was pretty scary hearing the hospital emergency room announcing a trauma code after my triage. But the CT scans showed nothing was broken.
Nuke aside: The radiation dose from the CT scans was nearly half of my lifetime occupational radiation dose. I've been a radiation worker in nuclear power for over thirty years.
I expected the accident recovery to be similar to a marathon recovery. But after a week, I still couldn't take a deep breath and it hurt to just lie down in bed. After three to four weeks, I was finally able to start running seriously again. But a few weeks ago I tripped over an uneven concrete joint in the sidewalk near the bridge over the bayou. It was a stumbling fall, but I hit my left knee hard on the concrete. I ran a half mile home and found my left sock was soaked in blood and most of the skin was off my left kneecap. I didn't mind the wound much but the knee started hurting in the joint when I tried to run a couple days later. I don't know if I hurt the joint when my knee hit the concrete or if the stumble strained the knee. Regardless, I've had to take another couple weeks off.
I missed the 10-mile race because of the car accident, the half marathon because of the knee injury, and now the 25K...26.21875K...is next week. I'm overweight and out of shape. My longest run this fall has been 9 miles. And the nuke plant is in a refueling outage that has been eating up every weekend. I doubt I'll be able to run the 25K, er 26.21875K.
I neglected to register early for the 2012 Houston Marathon, assuming I would have plenty of time before the veterans deadline. But that deadline was November 1. So I guess I'm already out of Houston 2012. I would like to get in decent enough shape to race the 30K in December. But who knows.

Hamstring Injury...Why?

2011-06-01T20:24:00.004-06:00

The pulled left hamstring was the worst injury I've had since December 2005. What happened?

The first hamstring pain on April 17th was completely out of the blue. I'd been dealing with some little niggles from my left knee and right Achilles tendon, but up until that Sunday afternoon I hadn't felt anything unusual from a hamstring. And then, Bam, less than two miles into a relatively easy run I had a sharp pain that convinced me to walk home. After a week of rest I tried running the next Sunday, but again before I'd run two miles, the sharp pain returned to the back of my left leg. I was frustrated enough to push the pain and run most of the way home. That stupid decision clearly led to a two and a half week layoff. But what happened to start the hamstring problem the week before?

I'd been running 50 to 60 miles a week through February and March, but a refueling outage at the nuke plant cut back training time so I was down to the mid-40s for the three weeks before the hamstring problem appeared. I was working on speeding up the Tuesday morning tempo-run. The run on April 5th was within a half second of my fastest Tuesday tempo of 2011 from early in March. April 12th was much warmer but the Tuesday tempo was only a little slower. I'd also added some strides, usually on Wednesday morning. I don't normally run strides, but I hadn't been doing any interval training and I was hoping the faster turnover during the strides would help in the shorter Spring races. I was doing four strides, after running two to four miles. The strides were gradual buildups over about 100 meters (I was just using street lights), accelerating up to a sprint and holding that pace for about 20 to 30 meters. At the time, I thought it was a conservative approach.

I never had any leg problems during the strides, but in retrospect they seem to be the most likely initiator of the hamstring injury. Strides are pretty traditional training, but next time I think I'll add 800s or 400s before I start running fast strides.

Not a Good Absence

2011-05-24T19:46:00.006-06:00

I haven't posted anything in a long time. My left hamstring flared up less than two miles into a Sunday long run in the middle of April. I took a full week off and again just before i'd run two miles, the left hamstring started hurting again. Instead of walking home, I ran most of the way. That was enough to aggravate the hamstring even more and it hurt even walking the next day. After another two weeks off, I think I'm finally past the hamstring problem. But the weather has turned to our normal oppressive heat and humidity.

The nuke plant changed it's internet policy. Among the many new restrictions on blogs and social media, I'm not allowed to post any pictures of the plant or coworkers, link to the plant's external website, or even mention the name of the plant or the operating company. There goes the nuke runner blog.

Some Inspiration

2011-03-28T20:17:00.004-06:00

With all the problems in Japan, I needed something like this:

Here's the race with the original commentary:

Mud Bugs

2011-03-22T20:43:00.006-06:00

Where I grew up, we could catch crayfish in the pond with a chicken bone on a string. Down here, the "mud bugs" literally live in the mud. Here are some crayfish chimneys along the running trail:

Here's a view of the water oaks along the trail:

Other than some nice vacation days running on the trail, it hasn't been a good week for nukes.

There's an "organic crawfish" farm on the road to the nuke plant:

A New Training Log

2011-02-28T21:05:00.005-06:00

I filled the last entry in my training log Sunday. Inspired by KG and double-d here are thirteen years of running, dating back to November 23rd, 1998.

I wish I kept a log back in high school and college.

A Successor to Paula Radcliffe?

2011-02-19T21:04:00.007-06:00

Paula Radcliffe has dominated woman's long distance running. Of the five fastest marathons, she's run four of them. Nobody is within three minutes of her PR.
But Mary Keitany might be her successor. She set a world record half marathon in the UAE and on the way set records in most of the standard race distances starting at 8K. 8K! Racing an 8K is very different from a half marathon, but she set world records at 8K, 10M, and 20K! Her half marathon time is 1:05:50.
It will be interesting to see what she does in London this year.

Mary Keitany finished third at NYC.

MEB, An American Champion

2011-02-17T20:20:00.004-06:00

Too bad Ryan Hall is the only American male getting a big appearance fee to run the Boston Marathon and Meb is shut out.

3:02

2011-01-30T12:20:00.007-06:00

The rain wasn't bad but it was a little too warm and humid for me. I started out too aggressively (6:43s) and crashed and burned for a 3:02.

Here's the final story on the weather:
Hobby Airport
0653 64F, dewpoint 60F, Mostly Cloudy, wind East 3 mph
0753 64F, dewpoint 60F, Light Rain, wind SouthEast 5 mph
0853 65F, dewpoint 61F, Light Rain, wind South 6 mph
0953 66F, dewpoint 62F, Light Rain, wind South 9 mph
1053 67F, dewpoint 63F, Overcast, wind South 8 mph
1153 67F, dewpoint 64F, Light Rain, wind South 10 mph with gusts to 18

No thunderstorms during the race, but we did have a big thunderstorm at home in LJ near the Gulf, with over an inch of rain in a few minutes.

The award for the best forecast goes to the raw computer models. The models first identified the incoming low pressure and its effect on moisture levels and were closest to the actual temperatures. The 84-hour ETA/NAM was remarkably close.
The worst forecast? That one has to go to Frank Billingsley. His forecast for low 50s was way off the mark.

M-2 Expo Day

2011-01-28T09:11:00.008-06:00

The Expo is on the first floor of the GR Brown this year, with the entrance at the south end of the building (Hall E). I hope I can still get my secret parking spot.

The Houston Chronicle's Dale Robertson wrote an excellent article about HeidyL yesterday.

Why the obsession over the weather? I think it's interesting (yes nukes are easily amused). Weather systems and the atmosphere are incredibly complex and dynamic. The forecasts aren't always right and often change, but I'm amazed at how much computer modeling has improved over the last few years.
But why race day weather? It's true we have no control over the weather and everyone will race under the same conditions. But only a select handful of elites will be competing against others. We will be running against ourselves. Whether it's a 40°F wind-free day or it's warm, humid, and windy, running over 26 miles will be a difficult, painful struggle. But when you're running fast, faster than you've ever run before, it's a good pain.

The NWS forecaster's discussion is filled with cryptic jargon, but there will be some rain Sunday morning. Z time is UTC (coordinated universal time or Greenwich mean time), so the 7AM race start is at 13Z.
SOUTHERN BRANCH BRINGING CIRRUS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOST OF THE MORNING. A VERY PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP. UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA WILL START MOVING EAST AND WILL TAP INTO RATHER RICH GULF MOISTURE SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAPID INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY AND THEN LL MOISTURE RAMPS UP QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL FROM WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKING WET AS 1-1.4" PW ARRIVE WITH THE S/W SWEEPING THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE...HIGH POPS ARE IN ORDER. MODERATE WAA IN PLACE...INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIM BUT LI OF 0 TO -2 POSSIBLE/CAPE LESS THAN 400 J/KG. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS...GFS HITS THE NORTHERN CWA HARD AROUND 06Z SUN...ECMWF NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST 06-15Z (AND WITH BETTER INSTABILITY) AND THE NAM CENTRAL 8-18Z. IN THIS FORECAST HAVE FAVORED THE HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINS SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING AND LIKELY BY 10 AM FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY STILL HAVE SHRA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING BUT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.

The hourly weather forecast looks worse again today. At start time it's showing temperature at 59°F and the dewpoint at 58°F with the winds south at 7 mph, and 10AM shows temperature up to 63°F and the dewpoint at 59°F with the winds south-southwest at 8 mph. But it does show the heavier rain ending by 6AM.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature in the 60s°F, rain ending, and a southwest wind at 6 mph. The text versions of the MRF model. show temperatures above 60°F and dewpoints in the upper 50s°F to 60°F.

The 84-hour ETA model now includes marathon Sunday [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature and dewpoint at or above 60°F, rain, and a south wind going over 10mph. Not good.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Sunday they show:
7AM 59°F, feels like 58°F
Chance of Rain 50%
Wind: S 7 mph
Humidity: 96%
Scattered T-Storms
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT

8AM 60°F, feels like 59°F
Chance of Rain 20%
Wind: S 8 mph
Humidity: 96%
Mostly Cloudy

9AM 61°F, feels like 61°F
Chance of Rain 20%
Wind: S 8 mph
Humidity: 96%
Mostly Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their hourly forecast. They're still raising their temperature predictions but it's not too bad:
7AM, Jan 30
58°F RealFeel®: 56°F
Dewpoint 56°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 6 mph

8AM, Jan 30
59°F RealFeel®: 58°F
Dewpoint 57°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 6 mph

9AM, Jan 30
62°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Dewpoint 58°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 7 mph

10AM, Jan 30
64°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Dewpoint 58°F
Cloudy
Winds SSW at 7 mph

11AM, Jan 30
63°F RealFeel®: 63°F
Dewpoint 57°F
Rain
Winds SW at 8 mph

M-3 Forecasts

2011-01-27T21:47:00.008-06:00

I can't believe I'll be heading up to Houston to pick up my packet at the Expo tomorrow.

The forecasts look worse again today. There's still a chance for decent conditions (lower 50s, wind not too strong, and light or no rain), but there's also a chance of warm, humid, rainy, and windy. Frank Billingsly just gave the good forecast on the 10PM Channel 2 news.

The hourly weather forecast looks worse today. At start time it's showing temperature and the dewpoint at 56°F with the winds south at 8 mph, and 10AM shows temperature up to 61°F and the dewpoint at 58°F with the winds southwest at 10 mph.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature in the 60s°F, rain ending, and a lighter west wind. The text versions of the MRF model. show temperatures near or above 60°F and dewpoints in the upper 50s°F.

The 84-hour ETA model now includes marathon Sunday [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature and dewpoint at or above 60°F, rain, and a south wind over 10mph. Not good.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 57°F
Precip 50%
Wind: S 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 84%
Scattered T-Storms

For Sunday they show:
High 68°F
Precip 50%
Wind: S 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 80%
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Scattered T-Storms

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their hourly forecast. They're still raising their temperature predictions but it's not too bad:
7AM, Jan 30
57°F RealFeel®: 53°F
Dewpoint 52°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds SW at 9 mph

10AM, Jan 30
59°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Dewpoint 54°F
Partly Cloudy
Winds WSW at 8

M-4 2011 Houston Marathon Weather Guessing

2011-01-26T03:50:00.009-06:00

I just finished the last real workout before the marathon: five miles overall and three miles at marathon pace on the track. The weather was beautiful, cool and dry and the sky filled with stars.
I wish I could say the same for Sunday's forecast. The latest NWS discussion talks about the marathon:

LOOKING AHEAD...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL RUNS ARE INCREASINGLY FAVORING LOTS OF HUMIDITY AND PERIODS OF MODERATE SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING...NOT THE MOST OPTIMUM CONDITIONS FOR THE HOUSTON MARATHON.

The hourly weather forecast looks better today with decent temperatures through 10AM. At start time it's showing temperature at 52°F and the dewpoint at 50°F with the winds south at 9 mph, and 10AM shows temperature up to 58°F but the dewpoint at 52°F with the winds south-southeast at 13 mph.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature in the 50s°F, rain ending, and a fairly strong east wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 53°F and wind at 8 mph in the morning.

The 84-hour ETA model now includes 6AM marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]with the temperature and dewpoint near 60°F and a SSE wind at 8mph.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 53°F
Precip 40%
Wind: SE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 802%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 65°F
Precip 40%
Wind: SE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 802%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Scattered T-Storms

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 1 to 5 day forecast. They're still raising their temperature predictions:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 50°F RealFeel®: 47°F
Considerable Cloudiness
Winds SE at 10 mph with gusts to 15

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 63°F
Mostly Cloudy, chance of a little rain
Winds ESE at 11 mph with gusts to 18

Uh-Oh M-5 2011 Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

2011-01-25T08:48:00.004-06:00

Yesterday afternoon, the forecasts all had significant rises in predicted temperatures for Sunday. The GFS model is looking pretty bad (at least for a cold-weather person like me) with dewpoints at and above 60°F. Fortunately we shouldn't see extremely high dewpoints because water temperatures in the near-Gulf are in the 50s now and shouldn't heat up much during the week with more cool weather. But if the dewpoint is near 60°F Sunday, I'll need to slow my pace by at least 10 to 15 seconds per mile. Today's NWS discussion still has high uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

FLAT/BRIEF RIDGE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT/WEDS WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THURS TO KEEP TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO SIG-NIFICANT POPS WITH THIS FROPA AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW WITH NO ONSHORE WINDS IN THE INTERIM. HOWEVER THINGS PROGGED TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS AOA THE CA BAJA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING W/SWLY WINDS ALOFT AS FLOW AT THE SFC LOOKS TO DRAW A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF. SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE EX-TENDED WITH ECMWF RUNNING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN GFSLR AT THIS TIME. WILL LEAN MORE TO A SLOWER TIMING AS THESE SYSTEMS ARE OFTEN WONT TO DO.

The hourly weather forecast shows decent temperatures up until about 9AM. At start time it's showing 51°F with the winds south at 7 mph, but 10AM shows temperature and dewpoint at 60°F with the south wind up to 10 mph. Five days out, you can't rely on an hour!

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature near 60°F, rain and a wind shift from a south wind to a northwest wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 56°F and wind at 9 mph in the morning.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 53°F
Precip 40%
Wind: SSE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 67°F
Precip 30%
Wind: SSE 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Few Showers

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 53°F RealFeel®: 51°F
Cloudy most of the time with a couple of showers
Winds SSW at 13 mph with gusts to 21

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 63°F RealFeel®: 62°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds NW at 10 mph with gusts to 16

Back to the Old Finish and Questionable Weather

2011-01-24T09:42:00.008-06:00

The marathon course has a slight change this year. The downtown finish is back to the one used several years ago, with a straight shot through downtown and a quick left turn to finish in front of the GRB. I like it better than weaving through downtown and then that very long straightaway down Rusk to the north end of the GRB.
Here are the certification sketch and details:

Uncertainty about the timing of a cold front next weekend remains the big weather story. Today's NWS discussion highlights the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

WILL SEE A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT ON THURS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE FRI. LOW FCST CONFIDENCE BEYOND THAT POINT. GFS STILL SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF AND SHOW AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THRU THE WEEKEND. LEFT THE FCST AS-IS BEYOND FRI DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TEMPS COULD BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

The hourly weather forecast has the colder version. At start time it's showing 39°F with the winds east at 6 mph.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature in the 40s°F and a stronger north-northeast wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 45°F and wind at 12 mph in the morning.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 46°F
Precip 20%
Wind: ENE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 70%
Mostly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 20%
Wind: ENE 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 68%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 44°F RealFeel®: 35°F
Rain
Winds NE at 15 mph with gusts to 21

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 57°F RealFeel®: 53°F
Cloudy
Winds NE at 12 mph with gusts to 21

Week 17

2011-01-23T15:32:00.005-06:00

Here's my seventeenth week of training for Houston '11:

69 miles for the week (January 17th to 23rd)

M: 12 at 7:07 mpm, 50ºF at 5AM went to work late after working late Sunday night
Tu: 7¼ at 8:27 mpm, 60ºF at 3:45AM
W AM: 7¼ at 7:00 mpm, 48ºF at 4AM
W PM: 5¼ overall average 7:01 with 3x1Mile/440rec (Miles in 5:58, 5:56, and 5:52), 57ºF at 7PM
Th: 6¾ at 8:15 mpm, 59ºF at 4AM
F: 10 at 6:57 mpm, 44ºF at 2PM
Sa: 7½ at 8:09 mpm, 53ºF at 2PM
Su: 13 at 7:00mpm, 64ºF at 1PM

I was happy with Wednesday's mile repeats until I saw I ran the same workout a couple years ago with the miles at 5:48.

There is some question now about the timing of the cold front next weekend. Today's NWS discussion talks about the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND COOL WITH A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature about 50°F and a light south-southeast wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 49°F and wind at 8mph in the morning.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 44°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NE 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 70%
Scattered Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 61°F
Precip 30%
Wind: NNE 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 59%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Scattered Showers

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 39 °F RealFeel®: 35°F
Cloudy
Winds NNE at 11mph with gusts to 17

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 59°F RealFeel®: 56°F
Mostly Cloudy
Winds N at 10 mph with gusts to 25

Tracking the Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

2011-01-22T15:53:00.004-06:00

The forecasts are starting to get meaningful now. Today's NWS discussion talks about the uncertainty for Marathon Sunday:

THIS DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE CARRYING SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S COLD FRONT. WHEN IT DOES MOVE THROUGH (WENT WITH A SATURDAY NIGHT PASSAGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE)...WE WILL SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE MONTH AND THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston] the temperature about 40°F and a light north wind. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 44°F and stronger winds (10mph) in the morning.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NNW 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 67%
Partly Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 0%
Wind: N 11 mph
Max. Humidity: 53%
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:13 AM CT
Sunny

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict a much stronger cold front:

Saturday Night, Jan 29
Low: 31 °F RealFeel®: 24 °F
Mostly clear
Winds NNW at 12mph with gusts to 27

Sunday, Jan 30
High: 55°F RealFeel®: 52°F
Cooler with plenty of sun
Winds N at 11 mph with gusts to 26

M-10 Forecast

2011-01-20T22:15:00.006-06:00

The GFS 16-day model still looks decent with the temperature in the 30sºF and a moderate North wind.

It doesn't look as good now at Accuweather:

Saturday Night:
Low 51ºF, Rain, Wind South at 8 mph with Gusts to 22
Sunday
High 69ºF, Showers, Wind South-SouthEast at 8 with Gusts to 20
The Global Forecast System 16-day model doesn't show anything above 50ºF near January 30th in Houston. I don't know how Accuweather is coming up with that forecast, but I would not like running the marathon in that weather.

The Weather Channel's forecast is closer to the GFS model, but still has some showers and is warmer:

Saturday Night:
Low 43ºF, Showers (60%), Wind East at 6 mph
Sunday
High 62ºF, Partly Cloudy, Wind North-NorthEast at 10

Bad Week to Be a Nuke Runner

2011-01-18T22:24:00.005-06:00

It was a tough week at the nuke plant and that meant training suffered.
Here's my sixteenth week of training for Houston '11:

51 miles for the week (January 10th to 16th)

M AM: 6¾ at 8:35 mpm, 44ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 8¾ at 7:16 mpm, 41ºF at 3:30AM
W AM: 5¾ at 8:13 mpm, 32ºF at 4AM
W PM: missed
Th: 7¼ at 7:05 mpm, 36ºF at 4AM
F: 12½ at 7:14 mpm, 56ºF at 4PM
Sa: 10 at 8:22 mpm, 64ºF at 10AM
Su: missed

I had to work late Wednesday and missed Wednesday evening's track work. That really messes up the week's schedule. I decided to run hard Thursday morning, hoping to complete a hard day before an easy day Friday and a local 10K Saturday morning. I was supposed to evaluate a test at the nuke plant Friday, but it was delayed, so I squeezed in a medium long run late Friday afternoon, giving up on the 10K race. I ended up working all of Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning and then headed back to the plant again Sunday evening, completely missing the last long run before Houston.

The weather forecast for January 30 is a little worse now, same low temperature near 40, but now a north wind near 10 mph:

AccuWeather's forecast is similar to the model, but with a lower, more easterly wind.

Another Houston Marathon Weather Forecast

2011-01-16T13:22:00.003-06:00

The long range weather forecast still looks very good (near 40 at the start and no wind):

The only problem is it's a long range forecast.

First Forecast

2011-01-14T15:51:00.008-06:00

Here is the first forecast for January 30, Houston Marathon Day:

This one looks good with the temperature near 40 and the wind less than 6mph, but you know it will change.

I found the old elevation map Runner Triathlete News made when the marathon changed to the new course (with the Heights):

My week hasn't been too good. I came home from the power plant too late and missed another Wednesday evening track workout. Now I'm not sure whether I'll have to work during Saturday morning's race at Surfside.

Here's the starting list for the USATF Half Marathon Championship; looks like a good field:

Open Men's Half Marathon Championship
Abdi Abdirahman Nike
Austin Baillie unattached
Brock Baker unattached
Matt Barrett unattached
Brennan Benkert unattached
David Berdan Keystone Track Club
Fasil Bizuneh New Balance
Kyle Brady unattached
Trent Briney unattached
Warren Brown unattached
Daniel Browne U.S. Army
Ian Burrell unattached
Gian-Paul Caccia New York Athletic Club (NYAC)
Michael Chavez unattached
Robert Cheseret unattached
Joe Driscoll ZAP Fitness
Josh Eberly Brooks
Jeffrey Eggleston unattached
Jimmy Elam unattached
Chris Erichsen unattached
Donovan Fellows unattached
Jason Finch unattached
Matthew Folk unattached
Matthew Forys New York Athletic Club (NYAC)
Kenneth Foster U.S. Army
David Fuentes unattached
Matthew Gabrielson Team USA Minnesota / Reebok
Gus Gibbs River City Rebels
Dan Greeno unattached
Jason Griffiths unattached
Paul Guevara The Georgetown Running Company
Ryan Hall Asics
Nick Hird unattached
Paul Jellema unattached
Bryant Jensen Utah Elite
Leo Kormanik Atlanta Track Club
Roland Lavallee New Balance Boston
Jason Lehmkuhle Team USA Minnesota / Saucony
Craig Leon unattached
Scott MacPherson unattached
Tyler McCandless unattached
Joshua Moen Team USA Minnesota
Mike Morgan Hansons-Brooks Distance Project
Jose Munoz unattached
Skyler Nesheim unattached
Kenyon Neuman unattached
David Nightingale unattached
Miguel Nuci unattached
Oscar Ogwaro unattached
Jason Ordway unattached
Joshua Ordway unattached
Justin Patananan unattached
Joshua Perrin unattached
Kevin Pool River City Rebels
John Poray unattached
Eric Rasmussen Team Nebraska Brooks
Christopher Reis unattached
Bobby Reyes unattached
Sergio Reyes unattached
Patrick Rizzo unattached
Mikhail Sayenko Club Northwest
Patrick Smyth Nike
Erik Stanley unattached
Daniel Tapia unattached
Jorge Torres Reebok
Mohamed Trafeh Nike
Juan Carlos Trujillo Bowerman Athletic Club
Ryan Vail Brooks
Brent Vaughn Nike
Justin Young unattached

Open Women's Half Marathon Championship
Lindsay Allen McMillan Elite
Ann Alyanak RUNOHIO Racing Team / Brooks
Sarah Bashinski-Flament RUNOHIO Racing Team / Infinite Running
Addie Bracy unattached
Serena Burla RIADHA
Kelly Calway U.S. Army
Dawn Charlier unattached
Kelly Chin unattached
Caitlin Chrisman unattached
Michelle Corrigan unattached
Abby Dean unattached
Esther Erb ZAP Fitness
Robyn Friedman unattached
Zoila Gomez unattached
Clara Grandt RIADHA
Amy Hastings Brooks
Jennifer Houck unattached
Nan Kennard unattached
Loretta Kilmer RIADHA
Magdalena Lewy Boulet Saucony
Kaci Lickteig Team Nebraska Brooks
Katie McGregor Team USA Minnesota / Reebok
Dot McMahan Hansons-Brooks Distance Project
Sally Meyerhoff unattached
Nina Miller unattached
Erin Moeller unattached
Tera Moody unattached
Kristen Nicolini Team USA Minnesota / Saucony
Ruth Perkins Club Northwest
Jackie Pirtle-Hall unattached
Emily Potter U.S. Army
Danielle Quatrochi unattached
Jennifer Rhines adidas
Lindsey Scherf unattached
Cassandra Slade unattached
Kara Storage RUNOHIO Racing Team / Infinite Running
Tara Storage RUNOHIO Racing Team / Infinite Running
Leah Thorvilson unattached
Kayte Tranel Team Nebraska Brooks
Heidi Westover unattached
Caroline White U.S. Air Force
Melissa White Hansons-Brooks Distance Project
Kelly Williamson unattached
Heather Wood unattached

Finally Some sub-MP Running

2011-01-10T20:11:00.003-06:00

Here's my fifteenth week of training for Houston '11:

84¾ miles for the week (January 3rd to January 9th)

M AM: 6¾ at 8:29 mpm, 42ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 9½ at 7:13 mpm, 62ºF at 3:30AM
W AM: 7¼ at 7:38 mpm, 72ºF at 4AM
W PM: 7 at an average pace of 7:02 with 6x1,200/400rec (1,200s at 4:32, 4:31, 4:30,4:30, 4:29, and 4:25), 57ºF at 7PM
Th AM: 6¼ at 8:28 mpm, 51ºF at 4AM
Th PM: missed
F: 15 at 7:10 mpm, 70ºF at 3PM
Sa: 10¾ at 8:37 mpm, 58ºF at 2PM
Su: 22¼ at 7:31 mpm, 53ºF from 2PM

At least I finally ran a speed workout. The 1,200s weren't fast at all, but I'm happy to have finished them. I've been worried about the stress of running that fast on the track (my left knee still gives some occasional niggles) but there were no problems. I used my old Saucony Fastwitches; they still feel good with over 600 miles on them.
Just three more weeks before Houston.

Another Frustrating Week

2011-01-03T20:41:00.000-06:00

Here's my fourteenth week of training for Houston '11:

84½ miles for the week (December 27th to January 2nd)

M: 12½ at 8:22 mpm, 54ºF at 2PM (day off from work)
Tu: 7¾ at 7:28 mpm, 61ºF at 4AM
W AM: 7¼ at an average of 7:25 mpm, 66ºF at 4AM
W PM: missed
Th: 10¼ at 7:19 mpm, 67ºF at 3:30AM
F: 15 at 7:48 mpm, 72ºF at 4PM
Sa: 10¼ at 9:10 mpm, 57ºF at 6PM
Su: 21½ at 7:18 mpm, 53ºF from 2PM

I messed up again this week with four days of fairly hard runs in a row, but missing the interval session again. I had planned on running the track Wednesday evening but never made it. So I got up early Thursday morning to put in some more miles. But that left me dragging on a warm and humid Friday. At least Sunday's long run wasn't too bad.

Weary Week 13

2010-12-29T20:50:00.003-06:00

Here's my thirteenth week of training for Houston '11:

77 miles for the week (December 20th to December 26th)

M AM: 5¾ at 8:49 mpm, 66ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 7¾ at 7:25 mpm, 67ºF at 4AM
W AM: 6¾ at 7:34 mpm, 65ºF at 4AM
W PM: missed
Th: 11 at 7:18 mpm, 59ºF at 10AM (day off from work)
F: 15 at 7:10 mpm, 65ºF at 10AM
Sa: 9¾ at 9:03 mpm, 38ºF at 10PM very easy after eating all day
Su: 21 at 7:32 mpm, 48ºF from 2PM

This was not a very good week. I messed up running four days fairly hard in a row, but missing the hard runs I actually need (namely 6x1,000 on Wednesday). My left knee has started bothering me again and I've been hesitant about running fast. This week's schedule calls for a race Saturday, but there are no New Year's Day races down here. The local college kids are talking about a 2-miler on the track Saturday afternoon; I might have to try and run that one with them. I really need to bear down and run a decent LT this week.

Houston Marathon Training Week 12, 6 More Weeks to Go

2010-12-20T21:34:00.004-06:00

Here's the twelfth week of training for Houston 2011:

84 miles for the week (December 13th to December 19th)

M: 10 at 8:25 mpm, 53ºF at Noon (day off from work)
Tu: 10 at 8:27 mpm, 68ºF at 11AM (day off from work)
W: 15 at an average of 7:13 mpm, 73ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
Th: 6¾ at 8:22 mpm, 67ºF at 4AM
F: 15 at 7:10 mpm, 59ºF at 1PM
Sa: 10 at 8:27 mpm, 48ºF at 9AM
Su: 17¼ at 7:19 mpm, 63ºF from 9PM after Christmas shopping all day

This was another week of deviating from the old Pfitz schedule. The30K race last Sunday is a big stresser and I didn't want to risk pushing too hard too early. I blew off the 600s scheduled for Tuesday and substituted another recovery day. The schedule had an 8 to 15 Km race scheduled for Saturday, but substituted a fairly hard medium long run on Friday. Sunday's long run took some motivation. I'm glad that one's done.

It's race preparation time. I think I need to focus on completing more of the LT and interval runs. I just haven't felt comfortable running faster than MP and running them solo down here even makes seem even more difficult.

Week 11, 30K Race, and Choosing a Goal Marathon Pace

2010-12-13T08:52:00.017-06:00

Here's my eleventh week of training for Houston '11:

82¾ miles for the week (December 6th to December 12th)

The eleventh week is the toughest one of the 18-week old Pfitz plan I sort of follow. The plan has 93 miles with a 24 mile long run and another day with 16 miles including 7 miles at LT. But I had a 30K race Sunday, so I deviated quite a bit from the plan.

M: 10 at 8:33 mpm, 54ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
Tu: 15 at 7:10 mpm, 60ºF at 1:30PM (day off from work)
W: 12½ at an average of 6:59 mpm with the last few miles at about 6:20 to 6:30, 50ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
Th: 5¾ at 8:22 mpm, 39ºF at 4AM, First run under 40ºF this Fall; I had to search hard to find some gloves
F: 12½ at 7:51 mpm, 72ºF at 12:30 windy and humid, planned on an easy day at this pace, but felt awful and had to push hard to stay under 8 mpm
Sa: 7½ at 8:21 mpm, 74ºF at Noon, very windy and humid
Su: 19½ with a 30K race at 6:30 mpm, 43ºF at 7AM with the wind picking up from North 9 to NorthWest 16 with 25 gusts

Sugar Land FLS 30K
I felt good about this race early in the week. The runs Tuesday and Wednesday felt great and 6:20 miles seemed effortless finishing Wednesday's run. I was thinking sub-2 was a very reasonable goal for the 30K and was actually hoping I would be closer to 1:58 with decent weather. But Friday's run was awful and my left knee was giving me strange pains most of Friday and Saturday.

The temperature Sunday morning was near perfect for me. The wind wasn't bad as predicted either (but it did pick up during the race). With the cool temperatures, I thought I had an excellent shot at the last Houston Marathon local invited runner spot. These invited runner spots have great perquisites: a comp'd entry fee, a lunch on Friday, flush toilets with no line before the race, starting on the line with the real elites, warm-up clothing pickup from the starting line, fluids on the course, .... But Houston has a very competitive field of 50 year old runners. SimC, el Tigre, picked up the spot for the 10-miler, RichardP earned his spot in the half marathon, and RichF got a spot in the 25K. When I saw RobW at the starting line, I knew the 30K invited runner would be far below the required qualifying time.

1) 6:30 I felt as though I was breathing way too hard for a 6:30.
2) 6:23 - 12:53 settled into a decent pace, running with HeidyL and KerryL
3) 6:27 - 19:20
4) 6:25 - 25:45 start the first Palm Royale loop, saw RobW was just behind
5) 6:25 - 32:10 got in a good group with RichardP, KerryL, and HeidyL up ahead
6) 6:30 - 38:40
7) 6:26 - 45:06 RobW pulled into the group
8) 6:29 - 51:36 end of the first loop
9) 6:17 - 57:53
10-11) 12:52 - 1:10:45 RichardP pulled away while KerryL and HeidyL dropped back
12)6:31 - 1:17:17 RobW pulled me most of the way into the wind, end of the second loop
13-14)12:59 - 1:30:16 led RobW into the water stop starting the third loop, but left the corner with a big gap behind RobW
15) 6:38 - 1:36:55 heading back into the wind on the third loop
16) 6:46 - 1:43:41 lost contact with RobW in the crowd of second loop runners
17) 6:45 - 1:50:25 caught up to JosephR as we left the third loop
Picture by TuanN

18) 6:39 - 1:57:05 JosephR pulled away from me, but RobW was coming back
30K 4:10 - 2:01:15 RobW was just too far away to try and catch him

RobW picked up the invited runner spot by 15 seconds.

Congratulations Rob!

Rob and I both lived on the 5th Floor of Sid Richardson College at Rice U back in 1978 (before I was bald):

Here's a hint to tell who's who.

Choosing a Marathon Pace
Choosing the right pace to run a marathon isn't easy. If you just go by what feels sustainable on race day, you're doomed to crash around mile 18 or 20. It takes so long to recover from a marathon, you can't just run a time trial a few weeks before the race. So we're stuck with using performance from a shorter race and scaling it to the marathon. There are several different methods to calculate equivalent performances, but the basic approach relies on correlating pace versus distance raced for a standard population.

Here's how the Finish Line Sports 30K has correlated to my time in the Houston Marathon:

30K Race	Equivalent Marathon	Houston Marathon	Comments
1998 2:13:48	(3:12:44)	3:21:12	Upper 60s to low 70s and humid marathon
1999 2:12:01	(3:10:09)	3:29:47	Sunny Marathon day, 58-73ºF, dewpoint 57-61ºF
2000 2:08:54	(3:05:40)	3:56:23	Had the flu; ran a 3:19 at Austin
2001 2:08:55	(3:05:42)	3:15:24
2002 2:03:00	(2:57:10)	2:58:53	Higher mileage marathon training
2003 1:59:28	(2:52:05)	2:55:46
2004 2:00:31	(2:53:36)	2:57:51
2005 1:57:07	(2:48:42)	DNS	Injured one week after the 30K
2006 1:57:57	(2:49:54)	2:54:33
2007 2:04:53	(2:59:53)	2:51:42	71-74ºF and humid during the 30K
2008 missed		2:58:02
2009 2:03:44	(2:58:14)	2:57:37
2010 2:01:15	(2:54:39)	?	We'll see

Weather has an enormous influence on how I race. The early years also show that at lower training volume, I lacked endurance. The extra eight miles of the marathon took more out of me than the 30K would predict. In 2002 I increased my training volume and the marathon times started coming out closer to the 30K equivalents.

So what's my goal if the weather is decent on January 30th?
I always wanted to run under 2:50, but that's not realistic.
2:50:59 would give me Two Hours Plus Age, but that's not going to happen.
2:51:41 would be a PR, but that won't be threatened.
I guess I'll go for a first corral time at Boston. It's a moving target (2:54:37 in 2010, 2:55:10 in 2009, 2:55:20 in 2008, 2:55:56 in 2007,....a 2:55:46 gave me bib number 1834 in 2005) so I'll probably need about 2:54 (6:38 mpm). I might be able to get vacation in April 2012. When the power plant has refueling outages they don't allow vacation. April 2012 will be my first chance at an April vacation day since 2005. Starting just behind the elites at Hopkinton is pretty cool.

Houston Marathon Training Week 10

2010-12-05T21:16:00.001-06:00

Here's my tenth week of training for Houston '11:

85¾ miles for the week (November 29th to December 5th)

M AM: 6¼ at 8:27 mpm, 73ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 9½ at 6:57 mpm, 63ºF at 3:45AM
W: 13 at an average of 7:13 mpm with 6x600/200 recoveries, 59ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
Th: 10 at 8:39 mpm, 67ºF at 3:30PM (day off from work)
F: 15 at 7:28 mpm, 73ºF at Noon
Sa: 10 at 8:28 mpm, 75ºF at Noon
Su: 22 at 7:20 mpm, started at about 7:40 and worked down to about 6:40 for the last two miles, 57ºF from 2PM

Next Sunday is my big test: the 30K race. Unfortunately, the weather forecast shows Saturday and Sunday as warm and humid.

Houston Marathon Training Week 9

2010-11-28T21:12:00.003-06:00

Here's my ninth week of training for Houston '11 (Half-Way):

74¾ miles for the week (November 22nd to 28th)

M AM: 6¾ at 8:37 mpm, 74ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu AM: 6¾ at 8:03 mpm, 74ºF at 4AM
Tu PM: missed
W AM: 11½ at 7:05 mpm, 73ºF at 3:30AM
W PM: missed
Th: 10 at 8:36 mpm, 79ºF at 1:30PM
F: 14 at 7:23 mpm, 51ºF at 4:30PM
Sa: 7¾ at 8:56 mpm, 53ºF at 5PM
Su: 18 at 7:20 mpm, 70ºF at 3PM

Some nasty warm and humid weather until a cold front blew in Thursday evening. My shoes went completely sweat-soaked Wednesday morning. I hadn't glued the insoles in place in my new Saucony Tangent 4 shoes, thinking I could get away with leaving them alone through the winter. But my shoes were so sweat-soaked Wednesday morning the insoles slipped and rolled up with three to four miles left in the run. They're glued in place now.

This was supposed to be an 85 mile week, with a 15-mile/4-mile double on Wednesday and 16 on Sunday with 12 miles at marathon pace. Even waking earlier than normal on Wednesday, I couldn't finish 15 miles before work. I also blew off the MP run today. I just didn't feel ready for that long at marathon pace on a warm day.

Catching Up

2010-11-22T22:08:00.002-06:00

I had to work nights last week at the power plant; six 12-hour nights in a row. The only good thing about working nights is your morning run is in the afternoon sun.

Here are my seventh and eighth weeks of training for Houston '11:

73 miles for the week (November 8th to 14th)

M AM: 5¾ at 8:35 mpm, 53ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 8¾ at 7:03 mpm, 69ºF at 4AM
W AM: 6¾ at 7:19 mpm, 71ºF at 4AM
W PM: 9 mile progression run averaging 7:00 mpm, 69ºF at 7PM
Th: 5¾ at 8:24 mpm, 70ºF at 4AM
F: 12½ at 7:48 mpm, 78ºF at 11AM
Sa: 7½ at 8:58 mpm, 58ºF at noon
Su: 17 with a 25K race at 6:32 mpm, 52ºF from 8:12AM, unfortunately the race started at 7AM
My official time for the 25K is 2:52:33

83¼ miles for the week (November 15th to 21st)

M (1): 7¾ at 8:40 mpm, 63ºF at 3PM
M (2): 3 at 8:47mpm on the treadmill during my "lunch", 11:30PM
Tu: 8¼ at 8:14 mpm, 66ºF at 3PM
W: 11 at 7:22 mpm, 75ºF at 3PM
Th: 10 at 8:12 mpm, 63ºF at 3PM
F: 13 at 6:58 mpm with 6 miles at LT, 65ºF at 4PM
Sa: 8¼ at 8:23 mpm, 75ºF at 1PM
Su: 22 at 7:44 mpm, 78ºF from 2:30PM with the dewpoint in the upper 60s...fortunately it cooled down some during the run

If Ifs and Ands Were Pots and Pans....

2010-11-14T21:43:00.007-06:00

There's no point in going into the "would've" and "could've"s from today's HMSA 25K race. My official time was 2:53:33 and I had 1:41:25 on my watch. I worked 12 hours Saturday night/Sunday morning and started the race 72 minutes late.
It's not a great time, but I'm pleased I was able to hold a fairly even pace. I was tempted to quit each time the course came back to downtown, not because I wasn't enjoying the race but because I felt foolish pushing the pace so late in the race. The first 5 miles were 32:29, the next 5 were in 32:23, and the final 5 were 33:04.

Waaa

2010-11-12T08:37:00.009-06:00

All of the time I spent at the power plant last weekend ended up worthless, as the problem worsened when the pump was restarted this week. So now I'm scheduled to work from 6 in the evening Saturday to 6:30 Sunday morning. Yes it's this Sunday, the day of the 25K race. After disappointing races in the 10-miler and the half marathon, I was hoping for a decent race with some cooler temperatures.
The weather forecast looks good with the temperature in the low 50s, light rain, and a moderate north-northeast wind.

If I leave the power plant in Matagorda County at 0630 Sunday morning, I'll arrive in downtown Houston over an hour after the 7AM race start. I might be able to leave earlier, but I doubt they will let me go before 5AM, giving me enough time to make it to the starting line before 7AM. If I work the full shift, it will just be a race to beat the crew disassembling the finish line.

If I were smart, I would just drive home and go to sleep Sunday morning.

Missing Week 6

2010-11-08T21:08:00.000-06:00

Here's my sixth week of training for Houston '11:

51¼ miles for the week (November 1st to 7th)

M AM: 5¾ at 8:38 mpm, 78ºF at 4AM
M PM: missed
Tu: 4¾ at 7:35 mpm, 78ºF to 66ºF at 4AM cut the run in half due to lightning
W AM: 6¾ at 7:15 mpm, 56ºF at 4AM
W PM: missed...reactor at the power plant tripped
Th: 5¾ at 8:24 mpm, 58ºF at 4AM
F: 6¾ at 7:27 mpm, 11 miles scheduled but this was all I could fit in before a 12-hour work day, 49ºF at 4AM
Sa: missed...worked another 12+ hour day at the power plant
Su: 21½ at 7:32 mpm, 68ºF to 67ºF from 1PM with the dewpoint near 50ºF

Between Tuesday's thunderstorm and working extra hours because of the power plant trip, this week was a real bust. 25K race coming up Sunday.

Week 5 of Houston '11 Training

2010-10-31T21:13:00.010-06:00

Here's my fifth week of training for Houston '11:

81¾ miles for the week (October 25th to 31st)

M AM: 4¾ at 8:34 mpm, 77ºF at 4AM
M PM: 5¾ at 8:40 mpm, 80ºF at 8PM
Tu: 9½ at 7:14 mpm, 80ºF at 4AM
W AM: 5¾ at 7:30 mpm, 79ºF at 4AM
W PM: 9 at 7:16, 81ºF at 8PM
Th: 6¼ at 8:30 mpm, 74ºF at 4AM
F: 13 at 7:37 mpm, with 6 miles on the Surfside Intracoastal Bridge, 69ºF to 71ºF from 1PM
Sa: 7¾ with a local 5K race at 6:14 mpm, 50ºF at 8AM
Su: 20 at 7:51 mpm, 10 miles on the Surfside Intracoastal Bridge, 80ºF to 81ºF from 1PM with the dewpoint at 63ºF to 64ºF

There were three or four dolphins swimming in the Intracoastal under the bridge Friday (you might be able to see one jumping...I just had my phone with me):

The Gulf looked nice Sunday:

After running 1,064 miles in the Adidas Tempos, I finally got a new pair of shoes. Here are the Tempos and a brand new pair of Saucony Tangent 4s:

It's hard to believe the Tempos were once white.

The Tangent 4s seem pretty much the same as the Tangent 3s I've used several times. The Tangent 4s weigh 10⅝ ounces for my size 12½ (a little lighter than the Tangent 3s); pretty light compared to 11⅞ for the Tempos. But the Fastwitch still reign with only 8¾ ounces.
The Fastwitch shoes now have 605 miles. The uppers look new, but the soft rubber on the forefoot has taken a beating:

Houston '11 Week 4 and the Houston Half Marathon

2010-10-26T19:33:00.002-06:00

I'm a little late, but here's my fourth week of training for Houston '11:

73 miles for the week (October 18th to 24th)

M: 6¼ at 8:36 mpm, 74ºF at 4AM
Tu: 9½ at 6:58 mpm, 72ºF at 4AM
W AM: 6¾ at 7:23 mpm, 70ºF at 4AM
W PM: 8 at an average 6:59 progression run from 7:19 to 6:38, 77ºF at 8PM
Th: 6¼ at 8:32 mpm, 69ºF at 4AM
F: 12½ at 8:22 mpm, 81ºF at 11AM
Sa: 7 at 8:55 mpm, 81ºF at 4PM
Su: 16¾ with a half-marathon at 6:52 mpm, Hobby Airport had 71ºF to 75ºF from 7AM with the dewpoint at 69ºF to 71ºF....It was 78ºF in Clute.

The half marathon was craptastic. I have to admit I partially torpedoed it, running the full scheduled runs on Friday and Saturday. I knew the forecast was warm and humid, so I lost interest in pushing this race. But I wasn't expecting to not even be able to maintain marathon pace. Very disappointing.

Houston'11 Training Week 3

2010-10-17T19:31:00.003-06:00

The warm and humid weather returned this week. It wasn't too bad, and I was happy with the LT run Wednesday and Tuesday morning's run even though my shoes were soaked in sweat. But Sunday's long run was a struggle and it wasn't even that bad: 79ºF with the dewpoint in the upper 60s. I was looking forward to a half-marathon next Sunday, but the forecast for the 24th is even worse with the dewpoint near 70 in Houston.

75¼ miles for the week (October 11th to 17th)

M: 6¼ at 8:34 mpm, 78ºF at 4AM
Tu: 9½ at 6:58 mpm, 74ºF at 4AM
W AM: 6¾ at 7:30 mpm, 66ºF at 4AM
W PM: 7 at an average 6:43 with 4atLT (6:28-6:24-6:22-6:14), 75ºF at 8PM
Th: 6¼ at 8:08 mpm, 67ºF at 4AM
F: 13 at 7:19 mpm, 78ºF at 1:30PM
Sa: 8½ at 8:46 mpm, 77ºF at 11AM
Su: 18 at 7:51 mpm, 79ºF at 10:30AM

Houston Marathon Training Week 2 and 10M on 10-10-10

2010-10-12T20:17:00.008-06:00

After a long hot summer, marathon training started with two straight weeks of beautiful weather. Monday started off with the first morning low below 60, four days ahead of the median. The cool weather even held on through Sunday's 10-mile race.

69¼ miles for the week (October 4th to 10th)

M: 6¼ at 8:38 mpm, 59ºF at 4AM
Tu: 8¼ at 7:08 mpm, 58ºF at 4AM
W AM: 7¼ at 7:12 mpm, 57ºF at 4AM
W PM: 6 at an average 6:58 mpm progression run from 7:34 to 6:28, 70ºF at 7PM
Th: 6¼ at 8:30 mpm, 59ºF at 4AM
F: 11 at 7:50 mpm, 82ºF at noon
Sa: 7 at 8:43 mpm, 78ºF at 11AM
Su: 17¼ with 10M at 6:27 mpm, 57-59ºF and foggy at 7AM

I had low expectations for the Space City 10-Miler. The race turned out OK. I'm looking forward to a stronger effort for the half marathon in a couple weeks. The new out and back course should be interesting; no more getting lost in the crowd of lapped runners while heading toward the finish.
Splits for the 10-miler:
6:10 felt easy but too fast, I was expecting 6:30s
6:33
6:23
13:05 (6:32)
6:33
6:30
6:31
6:33
6:13

2011 Houston Marathon Training: Week 1 of 18

2010-10-04T16:21:00.003-06:00

The 18-week training plan for Houston '11 started just in time with a cold front and another reinforcing cold front over the weekend. My biggest concern this week was not running too fast :)

66 miles for the week (September 27th to October 3rd)

M: 4¾ at 8:41 mpm, 67ºF at 4AM
Tu: 8 at 6:55 mpm, 62ºF at 4AM, running in the cool air felt so nice!
W AM: 7¼ at 7:05 mpm, 66ºF at 4AM
W PM: 5 at 6:42 mpm with the middle 3 at 6:22-6:20-6:13, 80ºF at 7PM
Th: 6¼ at 8:06 mpm, 70ºF at 4AM
F: 9 at 7:17 mpm, 83ºF at 10AM
Sa: 7¾ at 8:27 mpm, 79ºF at 11AM
Su: 18 at 7:32 mpm, 72ºF at 10AM

I usually start each marathon training period with a goal, but I have no idea what to shoot for this year. This has been a difficult Summer for me and I wonder if my old age precludes any chance of seeing a PR again. The Space City 10M race is rapidly approaching on 10/10/10. I was really worried about this one, but the faster pace running with the cooler temperatures this week, I'm a little more hopeful it won't be a complete disaster.

HARRA Cross Country Relay and Our First Cold Front

2010-09-27T20:11:00.012-06:00

No, the cold front didn't come in time for the relay, but it did make it all the way to the coast this morning. 66 degrees at 4AM! The first 60 degree day was a little late this year, but at least it's still September. And the cooler weather is just in time for starting the 18-week Houston Marathon training plan.

The HARRA Cross Country relay is always a challenging race, with steep uphills and downhills along the bayou. My team did quite well, 2nd place in the Veterans category, second to another Tornado's team. I guess being placed on the second team isn't bad if you beat all of the other clubs (especially when your time was in the lower half of the second team). Here are a few pictures:

I was dripping so much sweat, the camera wouldn't work after this picture, so I missed getting a picture of my team's third and fourth runners. Here's a picture of the sombrero plaque:

Here are a couple pictures taken by Bert:

"El Tigre" SimC tears it up for the first Veteran's Tornado team (the fast one). Runing in this age group isn't getting any easier.

Me

The End of Summer and the Beginning of Marathon Training

2010-09-23T20:52:00.003-06:00

The sun says summer is over, but the weather hasn't agreed yet. But there is hope. A strong cold front is expected to come through late Sunday. From the NWS:
THE AREA IS STILL ON TRACK TO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DECREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...AND THEN AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS) TO THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF A REINFORCING FRONT OR TWO AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN (LIKELY SOON TO BE BECOME TROPICAL STORM AND POTENTIALLY HURRICANE MATTHEW) COULD POSSIBLY KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HELLO FALL!

It's supposed to be in the 60s Tuesday morning,, even down here along The Gulf!

Just as summer ends, marathon training begins. With the Houston Marathon on 30 January, the 18-week training period begins on Monday the 27th. The cool weather should arrive just in time. I think I'm ready to start some serious training. I've been running over 50 miles per week for about a month now. But it has all been very slow due to the hot and humid weather. I have no idea if I can pull off another fast marathon. I'm worried I will crash during the Space City 10-Miler. 10/10/10 is coming up so fast.

I Am NOT a Morning Person

2010-09-21T10:46:00.003-06:00

I am not a morning person. But with a work schedule that requires me to leave the house at 0530 and return home around 1900, I have to run early in the morning. I set alarms on my phone and my watch to help me wake and then to help me know how long I can run and still leave for work on time. The first wake-up alarm is 0345 on the phone. Then my watch alarms at 0348 to really get me out of bed. The watch also has alarms at 0430, warning me I have about 20 minutes left to run, a ten minute warning at 0440, an alarm at 0450 tells me I need to get home, and finally an alarm at 0500 warns me I need to be making my lunch. I have a second back-up alarm on the phone at 0445 to ensure I get out of bed in time to get to work if I miss a run.

I woke up this morning to the 0348 watch alarm and the sound of heavy rain. Assuming I missed the phone alarm, I staggered out of bed and checked the weather radar on the computer. Despite being in the path of nothing but orange and yellow returns, I decided to suck it up and run through the downpour. My street was flooded from curb to curb in some areas, but I splashed along. I ran about two and a half miles when the 0430 watch alarm sounded, so I figured I could push the pace a little and complete 5.75 miles. The rain stopped for a little while and I was close to four miles when the 0440 alarm went off. I was surprised I hadn't seen a single car yet. I guessed I was the only one foolish enough to get out and brave the rain. The rain started up again and I made it home a little after the 0450 alarm. I was pushing the clock on a garbage day, but I was happy to finish a decent run.

I had to hurry to clean out the litter box and get all of the garbage bagged. I dragged the garabage bag out into the torrential downpour and set it on the curb just as the last 0500 watch alarm sounded. I hurried inside to start making my lunch and turned on the TV to check the news. The local station was running a decent world news story...very odd....something's wrong. I flipped the channel over to 2 to check Jennifer's traffic report. But channel 2 had a national news story...uh oh. I looked at the oven...the clock showed a little after 4AM.

I'd figured out a way to shift my watch over to Eastern Time Zone while sleeping and I'd just spent the last hour or so running in the rain at three in the morning. No wonder I didn't see any cars.
S-T-U-P-I-D!

35 Years Ago

2010-09-14T16:07:00.003-06:00

Here's a picture from 1975 of the North High School Cross Country team in Riverside, California. Can you tell which one is me?

I'm still struggling through the heat and humidity. After a couple nice days at the end of August, even the 16-day forescast doesn't show anything below 70 through the end of September. At least the 18-week Houston Marathon training starts late this year.

Hope for September

2010-09-01T10:43:00.004-06:00

August really was pretty bad. From the National Weather Service:

.CLIMATE...
THE PERSISTENT COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RESULTED IN A RECORD SETTING HOT AND HUMID MONTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AUGUST 2010 WILL RANK AS THE WARMEST OR SECOND WARMEST MONTH OF ANY MONTH ON RECORD FOR ALL THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ELEVATED...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDICES WERE HIGHER THIS MONTH THAN SEEN IN RECENT SUMMERS...WHICH IS WHY THERE WERE SO MANY HEAT ADVISORIES.

ALL-TIME WARMEST MONTHS ON RECORD:

COLLEGE STATION (RECORDS SINCE 1901):
1. AUG 2010/JUL 2009 - 89.1 DEGREES
2. JUL 1998 - 88.6 DEGREES
3. AUG 1951 - 88.5 DEGREES
4. JUL 1996 - 87.9 DEGREES
5. AUG 1962/JUL 1925 - 87.7 DEGREES

HOUSTON (IAH) (RECORDS SINCE 1889):
1. AUG 2010 - 87.9 DEGREES
2. JUL 1980/AUG 1962 - 87.5 DEGREES
3. JUL 2009 - 87.4 DEGREES
4. AUG 1951 - 87.1 DEGREES
5. AUG 1999/AUG 1902 - 86.8 DEGREES

HOUSTON/HOBBY (RECORDS SINCE 1931):
1. AUG 2010 - 87.0 DEGREES
2. JUL 2009 - 86.7 DEGREES
3. JUL 1998 - 86.6 DEGREES
4. AUG 1999 - 86.4 DEGREES
5. AUG 2009/JUN 1998 - 86.2 DEGREES

GALVESTON (RECORDS SINCE 1871):
1. JUL 1875 - 87.4 DEGREES
2. AUG 2010 - 87.3 DEGREES
3. AUG 2005/JUL 1996 - 86.6 DEGREES
4. AUG 2009 - 86.5 DEGREES
5. JUL 1876 - 86.3 DEGREES

WARMEST MAY THROUGH AUGUST PERIODS FOR HOUSTON (SINCE 1889):
1. 2009 - 84.4 DEGREES
2. 1980 - 84.1 DEGREES
3. 2010 - 84.0 DEGREES
4. 1998 - 83.8 DEGREES
5. 1962 - 83.7 DEGREES

NUMBER OF DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TIED OR BROKEN THIS MONTH:
COLLEGE STATION - 10 (HIGHEST - 81 DEGREES ON THE 11TH)
HOUSTON/IAH - 4 (HIGHEST - 83 DEGREES ON THE 12TH AND 18TH)
HOUSTON/HOBBY - 11 (HIGHEST - 81 DEGREES ON THE 18TH)
GALVESTON - 7 (HIGHEST - 85 DEGREES ON THE 30TH)

ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TIED:
HOUSTON/IAH - 83 DEGREES ON THE 12TH AND 18TH (LAST SET JUL 30 2009)
GALVESTON - 85 DEGREES ON THE 30TH (LAST SET JUL 20 2005)

HEAT INDEX IN HOUSTON:
DAYS WITH HEAT INDEX 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER - 20 DAYS
DAYS WITH HEAT INDEX 108 DEGREES OR HIGHER - 8 DAYS
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX - 114 DEGREES ON THE 14TH (HIGHEST SINCE AT LEAST 2000)

I hope September is better.

Hallelujah!

2010-08-24T16:31:00.004-06:00

From the National Weather Service discussion for Houston/Galveston:

DISCUSSION...
AT LONG LAST...THE NEVER ENDING HEAT ADVISORY SAGA IS COMING TO AN END! CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND FILTER INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SFC DEW PTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.

הַלְּלוּיָהּ

Of course it's still plenty warm in the power plant.

I Registered for the 2011 Houston Marathon

2010-08-06T20:55:00.008-06:00

Well, I'm going to try again. I registered for my 14th Houston Marathon. I can't really say my last two marathons have been disappointing, both were better than any of my Fall warm-up races, but I haven't been happy with my performance. I know the aging process is against me, and I don't have much of chance to run faster now than what I ran in my 40s. But I still haven't given up trying.
The marathon is later this time, very near the end of January, so the 18-week training period starts September 27th. I think that will help my training. It also moves the Sugar Land 30K back to Week 11, so there should be more time to recover from the 30K and peak for the marathon. I wish Houston had more races around New Year's day. The Space City 10-Miler is also going to be difficult, coming up at the end of the second week of marathon training.

I spent last week in Chicago, attending an industry meeting with nukes from across the country and Canada who also are responsible for their plant's cooling water systems. I really enjoyed Chicago; it's now on my list of interesting cities worth visiting. Running each morning along the lakefront was a wonderful break from the South Texas summer. On Monday morning, I even got to run with the temperature in the 60s!

The run-bike trail along the lakefront was one of the busiest places I've ever run..up there with the Charles River in Boston and Houston's Memorial Park. Nobody would say hello to me though.
I ran a 5K Thursday evening at Soldier Field. The race was enormous for a 5K: over 2,400 people. I didn't run well, not even breaking 19. But the field was surprisingly very weak and I ended up placing in my age group.

I ran across this great video of elite runners at the Boston Marathon (from G.I.M. from Joe). It clearly shows the differences in foot-strikes. When I started running in high school, I tended to overstride and heel strike. I'm not really sure what my form is now, but I have noticed my stride is shorter and I think I'm more of a 'neutral' runner.

Just a Cruel Tease

2010-07-01T16:32:00.008-06:00

I went to Vermont last weekend and was able to run in some nice cool temperatures. But my trip was shortened and I wasn't able to run much. I did run a very disappointing 19:02 at a little 5K Saturday evening. It was a relatively flat course (for Vermont) and I really should have run much faster. The temperature was a nice cool 63*F with a few light sprinkles. My fingers even felt cold while running!

I was able to squeeze in a run Sunday evening on some mountain bike trails in Colchester Vermont.

Monday morning I ran a few miles to Burlington and got to see Ethan Allen's gravesite.

My original schedule had me watching one of my pumps from the power plant get reassembled Monday and Tuesday and flying back Wednesday. But the pump was finished early on Monday and with Alex we decided our time in Vermont was over. I missed my Tuesday run, spending much of the day changing my flight to get back home. I didn't get home until early Wednesday morning and by Wednesday evening the storms from Hurricane Alex had rolled into the area, so I blew off another run.

The wonderful cool Vermont weather ended up just being a much too short tease. I'm back in the South Texas tropical sauna, getting doubly soaked with the warm rain from the remnants of Hurricane Alex. I'd hoped the Vermont trip would lift my spirits and help motivate me through the rest of the summer. But I feel as unmotivated as ever now.

I Hate Summer

2010-06-19T21:48:00.003-06:00

I hate Summer....and Summer hasn't even started. I enjoy running, but running in this oppressive heat and humidity challenges any sense of enjoyment. Every run, no matter how slow or how early in the day, seems to be a struggle with heat exhaustion. I've only suffered dehydration and heat exhaustion (I landed in the hospital after a long run on a very warm and humid December day), and consider myself very fortunate to have avoided the heat stroke reported here. Very scary!

I have been able to manage some decent, albeit slow, mileage:
52.75 miles the week of June 7th to 13th
M: 7 at 8:24 mpm, 86*F at 1PM
Tu: 7 at 7:21 mpm, 85*F at 3PM
W: 6 at 7:46 mpm, 89*F at 3:30PM
Th: 7 at 8:23 mpm, 88*F at 3PM
F: 7 at 7:39 mpm, 87*F at 5PM
Sa: 7 3/4 at 8:40 mpm, 88*F at 10AM
Su: 11 at 8:31 mpm, 89*F at Noon with the dewpoint at 80
I worked nights all week, so most of the runs were at 3PM before going to work.

49.25 miles the week of May 31st to June 6th
M: 7 3/4 at 8:34 mpm, 86*F at 10AM
Tu: 4 3/4 at 6:57 mpm, 79*F at 4AM
W: 4 3/4 at 7:37 mpm, 81*F at 4AM
Th: 5 3/4 at 7:46 mpm, 71*F at 4AM with light rain after some heavier storms
F: 7 3/4 at 8:31 mpm, 84*F at 10AM
Sa: 7 1/2 with The Heights 5K race at 5:59 mpm, 77*F at 7:30AM up in Houston
Su: 11 at 8:24 mpm, 86*F at 9AM with the dewpoint in the fog-your-glasses upper 70s

48.5 miles the week of May 24th to May 30th
M: 4 3/4 at 8:53 mpm, 80*F at 4AM
Tu: 5 3/4 at 7:16 mpm, 79*F at 4AM
W: 5 1/2 at 6:46 mpm with the middle 3M a little quicker (6:39, 6:37, and 6:27), 85*F at 7PM
Th: 5 3/4 at 8:31 mpm, 74*F at 4AM
F: 9 at 7:18 mpm, 88*F at 10AM but the dewpoint was near 70
Sa: 7 3/4 at 8:30 mpm, 89*F at 11AM
Su: 10 at 8:27 mpm, 86*F at 11AM but the dewpoint was way up in the upper 70s

I'm now up to 14 days of running since I've run in temperatures less than 80*F.

Heights 5K

2010-06-07T15:03:00.005-06:00

I ran The Heights 5K Saturday. It's a simple down and back on Heights Boulevard, 18th Street to 5th Street and back to 18th Street. The 13 blocks going down the street go fast, but the same 13 blocks coming back up the other side seem to take forever. I ended up with a 5:53 first mile, a 6:01 second mile, 6:09 third mile and the last bit in 33 seconds to average just under 6:00 per mile. Dale Lee passed me just after the turnaround (he's been a great competitor this past year) and Angrunner pulled me in to finish. It was warm and humid (Hobby Airport recorded 77°F with a 74°F dewpoint) so I was happy with my time.

Here's my nephew hitting a home run in a NCAA Regional Playoff game:

He's been hitting the ball hard lately.

Now That's an Ultra

2010-05-26T10:28:00.001-06:00

7,100 miles in nine days?

New York Times story about migrating birds

New Shoes: Adidas Tempo

2010-05-21T12:23:00.007-06:00

I bought a new pair of Adidas Tempo shoes. I don't know much about them, but they're relatively light stability training shoes and they were only $50.

Here's the lineup, left to right:
Saucony Fastwitch, 427 miles, 9 ounces;
Adidas Tempo, 16 miles, 11¼ ounces;
Saucony Tangent, 1087 miles, 11⅜ ounces

The Tangents will go back into retirement. I brought them out to help save the Fastwitches for fast runs and races. They were good for another 200 miles, but lately my lower legs have been telling me those shoes are about shot.

Bayou Bash Relay

2010-05-11T19:34:00.016-06:00

It was a last minute team, but we won the 50-59 division of the 4x1.92M Bayou Bash Relay. I think I ran pretty hard. My throat was burning after my leg. I checked the ozone and it wasn't too bad: 42 ppb, just high in the good range.

Team Pictures by Hardeep Thind.

Sim out on the beer-bike track running the first leg

KeithW running the stadium concourse

and the finish

Running down this ramp to the football field was tough on my old legs

The race was at Rice Stadium, so I had to take a quick tour of the campus. I can't believe it's been over 29 years since I left Rice.

My desk was in the top-center window box in 1980-81

LP Run

2010-05-02T21:09:00.010-06:00

I was sent home Wednesday afternoon to get some sleep before having to get back to the power plant sometime early Thursday morning after the plant was heated up to full temperature and pressure. So that gave me the perfect opportunity to drive to Houston and race the LP Run! With it's Wednesday evening start time and working way out in Matagorda County, I've only been able to make the LP Run twice before. It's a timed race, 33⅓ minutes (hence the LP) on the track. I managed to end up with 5.419 miles. Not great, but it's consistent with my times from the Bellaire 5K and the Law Week 8K. Heatup at the power plant was delayed a little and I didn't have to go into work until 0530. And this week I go back to working a 4x10 schedule, so I'll be able to run longer on Fridays.

We got our first taste of high humidity Friday and Saturday. I was pleased to be able to run 10+ late Saturday morning under 7:20 pace. We had a nice cool front come through Sunday morning and I was able to get in a very pleasent 15-miler. I couldn't help but stop and eat a few blackberries:

How about Chris Solinsky?
**Chris Solinksy American Record FInish Video** | 2010 Payton Jordan Cardinal Invitational on Flotrack

Sub-27! And he's 6'1" and carrying 165 pounds (of course that's still not that close to this big nuke). Let's hear it for a BIG Guy!

The entire race.

Boston Twice as Fast

2010-04-22T18:58:00.016-06:00

Boston proved to be another excellent marathon. And I missed it again. We are refueling Unit 2 at the power plant, so no vacation is allowed. Unit 1 has a refueling outage next April. I might be able to get vacation in April 2012.
Enough of my whining. Boston was very special again this year with Robert "the younger" blowing away the course record, Meb valiantly fighting with the best despite an injury plagued training period, and a Houston Marathon winner taking the woman's race.

You're not seeing double. These twins finished in 2:28:35. Their splits were identical except at the 15K and the half marathon point, where they were one second apart. Here's their story in their own words first one and then the other.

Pictures from Jim Rhoades.
First photo at Mile 20 by Ted Tyler from Coolrunning
Second photo at 30K by Frank Georges from Coolrunning

I ran the Brazosport College Gator Gallop Saturday. I can't say the race was very well run, either by the organizers or myself.

I did get to take some pictures of a three-toed box turtle:

Fountain at the College:

The running trail:

South Texas view from the trail:

The Jim Rhoades pictures give me a chance to run Boston vicariously rom the warm and humid Gulf Coast. Here are a few of my favorites:

Ryan Hall didn't live up to expectations, but he did beat Bob Kempainen's record for the fastest American time on the Boston course. It seems as though he's airborne in each picture.

Houston's Heidy Lozano had a seeded number and took 2nd place in the 45-49 division with a 2:59:01 after a 1:25:43 first half

Mile 20 photos by Ted Tyler from Coolrunning
30K photos by Frank Georges from Coolrunning

Bellaire Trolley Run 5K

2010-04-12T15:30:00.004-06:00

Well, I just barely made my goal: 18:24.9

I ran a fairly relaxed first mile, pacing off Rich F:
5:49
Rich started drifting away from me on the 2nd mile and I ran much of this mile with the lead woman.
6:00 for 11:49
The lead woman stayed about my pace and we stayed together through the 3rd mile. KeithW passed me, but I didn't try to stick with him.
6:04 for 17:52
Hearing the 17 split for the 3rd mile picked me up some and I was able to make a decent push for the finish.
0:32.5 for 18:24.9

It certainly wasn't my best 5K, but I'm happy with it. Next up is the Gator Gallop 5K at Brazosport College. This race is nearly the opposite of the Trolley Run. The trolley run is extremely competitive, but the Gator Gallop is a very low key local race with enormous trophies for nearly everyone that enters.

5K Races

2010-04-01T10:25:00.007-06:00

It's time to race 5Ks. The Bellaire Trolley Run is coming us Saturday the 10th, then the local Brazosport College Gator Gallop on the 17th, and finally the Freeport Flapjack 5K on the 24th. I'm looking forward to these races. I don't think a PR is likely, but I have a decent shot at an age-graded 80%. As a 50 year-old, I need to run 18:26. If I geek out and use my fractional age, I only need an 18:33. It's sub-6 pace, but just by a few seconds. My strategy for running a 5K is simple:
1) run a decently paced first mile
2) struggle and push hard through the second mile
3) if I hear 11-something at the 2-mile mark, gut out the last mile
4) try and catch up to the next person and keep the clock from ticking too much in the last 188 yards

I ran a decent tempo run Tuesday morning. A 12:54 and a 12:51 for 2x2M isn't very fast, but it's the best Tuesday-Tempo I've run since April 2008.

This NY Times article is pretty close to my philosophy on going to doctors for running injuries.

Law Week 8K

2010-03-27T20:51:00.009-06:00

I enjoyed seeing all of the Houston runners today at the Law Week 8K. This is the first Houston race I've run since the marathon in January. I've had sort of a 'blah' week. Every once in a while when there are retirements or vendors visit, we'll have tons of extra food at the power plant. This was one of those weeks. I think I gained 7 pounds by the end of Thursday. I felt a little 'sluggish' before the race this morning.

The mile splits seemed off; I ended up with:
5:47
5:37 - 11:24
7:02 - 18:26
6:15 - 24:42
6:05 - 30:47

I actually felt pretty good through the race, but I was passed by several people heading back towards downtown and I just didn't keep up with them. The final 8K time was 31 seconds slower than last year. It was also 17 seconds slower than the 80% age grading I've been chasing. I'll try and do better at the Bellaire Trolley 5K in a couple weeks.

It was a beautiful Spring morning. Hobby Airport had 58°F to 61°F with the dewpoint at 55°F to 56°F and nearly no wind. Here are a few pictures of some Azaleas where I parked near City Hall:

Lumbering in to the finish.

Picture from Kerry Lee.

Back from Vacation - Inverness Half Marathon

2010-03-19T08:08:00.059-06:00

I've had a busy month since the last post. I just got back early Thursday morning from two weeks in England and Scotland. Scotland was the first 'real' (not border-Mexico or Canada) foreign country I ever visited. Back in May 1980 I was a NROTC Midshipmen on a submarine for 1st Class Summer Cruise. I'll never forget coming out of the submarine hatch and finding myself sailing up the Firth of Clyde surrounded by mountains, with little cottages along the coastline each with a hint of coal smoke from their chimneys. A couple years later, I was on a submarine deployed from Scotland, but the magic and excitement of that day in May never faded. I've been fortunate to be able to visit a few other countries since, but Scotland is still special.

Running has been spotty. I missed several days preparing for the trip, and then another few days traveling. We arrived in England on Thursday the 11th, but I didn't get a chance to run as we traveled up to Scotland. On Saturday night, we arrived at a little rental-house on the Waternish Peninsula of the Isle of Skye.

On Sunday afternoon I took my first run since Monday, heading out toward the end of the peninsula. I heard there were ruins of a church where there was a fairly large clan battle back in the 16th century. But on the way I found a great looking dirt road heading up a hill. There was a cattle fence across the road, but it wasn't locked; just held in place with a cool old iron hook.

After a nice first mile or so, the road started getting very boggy and muddy. Even though there are large hills, much of the land was just a mossy swamp. I ran up to a stone monument commemorating Roderick MacLeod of Unish, who died there in the Second Battle of Waternish in 1530.

I then ran back to the road and when I finally got to the ruined Trumpan Church, there was a sign showing the dirt road was an 11 mile walk on Waternish Point that also passed two iron-age brochs.

Trumpan Church Ruins

The run ended up being about 11.5 miles.

Monday was another beautiful sunny but crisp day. I ran back to the ruins of the Trumpan Church and looped back around to the main road for a 9+ mile run:

There were some tough hills past the church, but there were also beautiful views of the loch.

Tuesday was a 6.5 mile run to the Fairy Bridge:

Wednesday was a 10 mile run over the peninsula to the village of Geary along Loch Snizort. I didn't bring my phone so you won't have to see any pictures. This side of the peninsula is more rural, with many abandoned black house ruins.

Thursday morning I ran 13 miles out to the Waternish Point Trail again to find one of the ancient brochs, Dun Gearymore. On Wednesday's run while crossing the peninsula I saw another broch, Dun Hallin, so I decided I would try and run up to one during this run.

In front of the house, starting Thursday's run.

A bridge on the dirt road.

On top of Dun Gearymore

Dun Borrafiach in the distance

I didn't run to Dun Borrafiach, but it is better preserved with 10 feet high walls remaining.

We went to the Outer Hebrides Isle of Lewis Thursday afternoon and on Friday evening I took a short easy run near Stornoway:

Stornoway (Running)

I took a rest day Saturday and we traveled from Stornoway to Inverness. On Sunday afternoon, I ran the City of Inverness Half Marathon. A 1PM start for a serious race would be foolish in Houston, but in Scotland it makes perfect sense. I was hoping for an outside chance of an age group award, but I knew my chances were pretty slim even if I ran perfectly. The award structure was quite different than Houston area races: Awards to the top 10 finishers, then the top three masters, and age group awards to the top finisher for four groups: Over 45, O/50, O/55, and O/60. Even though there was much less emphasis on Masters runners, I found the competition was strong.
I didn't come close to running a perfect race. Without any familiar faces to pace off, I started much too fast with a 5:51 first mile. The first couple of miles were nice and flat, along the River Ness. But the next couple of miles started to climb away from the river and I slowed to a 6:50 4th mile as people streamed past me. I settled into about a 6:30 pace the next few miles as we went though a forest into some suburban areas with new homes. I don't remember mile 9 much, but it was raining and there must've been some uphill because I ran an awful 7:04. Miles 10 and 11 were downhill back to the river and I was able to pick up the pace back to 6:20. The sun came back out and I slowed a little to 6:30 for the last couple of miles along the river. I ended up with a 1:24:43 for 56th overall and 6th in the O/50 group. I was hoping for under 1:23, but I guess it wasn't too bad. I was happy to see the O/50 prize winner ran a 1:17:49, so even with a perfect race I didn't have chance. Here are a few of my pictures (and there are some much better pictures here.
The River Ness

A flushing porta-can. Moving the handle pumps blue fluid to flush. It looks like a good idea, but in practice I prefer the old fashioned sump of blue fluid.

Getting ready to start with a bang.

Running skirts for men?

There were 1125 finishers under the three hour time limit. 108 total and eight O/50 finished under 1:30. For contrast, the Houston Half Marathon had about 2370 finishers under three hours, but only 75 total and seven O/50 finished under 1:30.

Flying over Boston on the way home:

The Wrong Age Group Award

2010-02-18T13:16:00.004-06:00

I received an age group award from the Houston Marathon yesterday, but it's for 2nd place instead of 3rd. Now I'm going to have to find RichardP and see if he got the 3rd place one.
02/20/2010 Update: I was wrong. First in the 50-54 won prize money for First Place Over Fifty. So RichardP moved up to first in the 50-54 Age Group.

Re-Opening an Old Wound

2010-02-10T12:09:00.006-06:00

This isn't running related, but I'm glad I can run for stress relief. Time Magaine is running excerpts from a new book (BLACK HEARTS; One Platoon's Descent Into Madness in Iraq's Triangle of Death) about my son's platoon in Iraq.
That was a difficult year.

The Downward Spiral of Private Steven Green

I read the book while I was in traveling. If you want to understand what some people endured during a war while America shopped, I highly recommend this book.

The New York Times Review

Work Versus Running

2010-02-08T12:29:00.002-06:00

This started out as good week, with a strong first try Tuesday Tempo run. I've noticed I run best during the Sring Series of short races when I get in the practice of hammering a fairly hard tempo run each Tuesday morning. So I put on my nice lightweight Saucony Fastwitch shoes early Tuesday morning and let it rip. I ended up with a 13:11 for the 2+ miles headed out and 12:53 coming back. Not bad for a first effort and only a couple of seconds off the fastest Tuesday Tempo from last Spring. The week was starting out good.
But on Wednesday afternoon, the power plant started shutting down one of the units. I was sent home a couple hours early and put on call to come back sometime during middle of the night. I missed the Wednesday evening track workout and spent most of Wednesday night trying to sleep but waiting for a phone call I never received. I missed Thursday's morning run and ran easy on Friday anticipating racing the Buffalo Wallow 6K Saturday morning. But Saturday morning I wasn't motivated enought to drive to Houston and then before I could run I was called back to spend all Saturday afternoon at the power plant.

My Shoe Has a Blister

2010-02-01T11:29:00.008-06:00

During Thursday's run, I thought I had something in my shoe near the ball of my left foot. I tried scrunching up my toes but it never moved. On Friday the "item" was still at the same spot. I took the shoe off and found a large bump on both the inside and the outsole.

These Nike Air Zoom Elites only have 737 miles on them. I think they will be my last pair of Nike shoes for a while. I'm back to the online shoe stores, looking for another pair of Saucony Tangents this time.

37¼ miles for the week (January 25th to 31st)

M - sleep, 47°F at 4AM
Tu - 5¼ miles at 6:59 pace, 50°F at 4AM
W - 5 miles with 4x800/400rec with an overall average 7:12 pace, 800s at 2:54 to 2:52, 63°F at 7PM
Th - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:26 pace, 64°F at 4AM
F - 6 miles recovery run at 8:20 pace, 49°F at 3PM
Sa - 7 miles at 7:07 pace, 43°F from 2:30PM
Su - 8¼ miles, average 6:58 pace, 40°F from 5PM

I missed two recent local races. I had to work last Saturday and missed a 5K/10K on the beach in Surfside. This week I planned to run the Angleton 10K, but lying in my nice warm bed Saturday morning I had no motivation to leave the covers much less race for 6+ miles. I hate to miss local races and I'm already 0 for 2 in 2010.

I am excited about the 2010 Spring Series. I won't be able to run the Bayou City 10K because I'll be vacationing in the UK for a couple of weeks. But I did find an interesting looking half marathon in Inverness that weekend. The competition looks fierce (there's a really fast local Scotsman over 50), but I'm thinking about making it my primary race this Spring. It should be fun.

13th Houston Marathon

2010-01-25T11:41:00.014-06:00

This was one my worst Fall Warmup Series in years. But I had a decent 30K race in December and I started running much better with the colder weather during the weeks before the marathon. The first three Fall Series races projected a marathon time of 3:08 to 3:10 and the 30K Race poointed to about 2:58. My plan was to shoot for about 6:40 miles and put the brakes on anything faster than 6:35.

For the record, Hobby Airport had:

Time....Temp...Dewpoint....Visibility....Wind.......Conditions
6:53AM - 42.1 °F - 39.9 °F - 7.0 miles - West 4.6 mph - Partly Cloudy
7:18AM - 41.0 °F - 39.2 °F - 2.5 miles - WNW 5.8 mph - Scattered Clouds
7:31AM - 41.0 °F - 39.2 °F - 3.0 miles - West 4.6 mph - Mostly Cloudy
7:32AM - 41.0 °F - 39.2 °F - 3.0 miles - West 4.6 mph - Mostly Cloudy
7:53AM - 42.1 °F - 39.9 °F - 3.0 miles - WSW 4.6 mph - Mostly Cloudy
8:53AM - 45.0 °F - 43.0 °F - 4.0 miles - West 4.6 mph - Mostly Cloudy
9:53AM - 51.1 °F - 46.0 °F - 6.0 miles - Calm Calm - Mostly Cloudy

The Heliport at Hermann Hospital had:

Time....Temp...Dewpoint....Visibility....Wind.......Conditions
6:55AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 5.0 miles - NW 6.9 mph - Clear
7:15AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 4.0 miles - NW 9.2 mph - Clear
7:35AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 3.0 miles - NW 9.2 mph - Clear
7:55AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 3.0 miles - WNW 8.1 mph - Clear
8:15AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 3.0 miles - NW 6.9 mph - Clear
8:35AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 3.0 miles - WNW 4.6 mph - Clear
8:55AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 4.0 miles - NW 8.1 mph - Clear
9:15AM - 48.2 °F - 44.6 °F - 5.0 miles - NW 5.8 mph - Clear
9:35AM - 48.2 °F - 44.6 °F - 5.0 miles - NNW 6.9 mph - Clear
9:55AM - 50.0 °F - 44.6 °F - 6.0 miles - NW 5.8 mph - Clear

The weather turned out very nice, maybe a little warmer than some of the forecasts. Of course, I was still soaked in sweat.

1) 6:29 oops...I was a little late to the starting corral and only worked my way up to near the front at the very last minute.
2) 6:39 - 13:07
3) 6:30 - 19:36 so much for the plan
4) 6:41 - 26:17
5) 6:44 - 33:01
6) 6:33 - 39:34 this mile always end up faster
10K in 41:02
7) 6:43 - 46:17
8) 6:33 - 52:50 I spent much of this mile looking to my left to watch the elite half-marathoners flying up the other side of the street.
9) 6:39 - 59:30
10) 6:44 - 1:06:13 The half marathoners have turned around and the course is much lonelier and I'm able to get back on a more reasonable pace.
11) 6:44 - 1:12:58
12) 6:45 - 1:19:43
13) 6:44 - 1:26:26
Half marathon in 1:27:08 My pacing hasn't been very good and I'm a little faster than I planned, but I'm feeling very good.
14) 6:39 - 1:33:05
15) 6:47 - 1:39:52 Up the Westpark Overpass; I'm near RichardP but I've been running the whole race by myself. The volunteeers moved the elite fluids table over to the sidewalk just before RichardP arrived....he wasn't very happy about that!
16) 6:41 - 1:46:33
17) 6:32 - 1:53:05 RichardP and RichF (both over 50s) passed me going up Post Oak. I hung out with RIchF through this mile and I'm still feeling very good.
18) 6:39 - 1:59:44 I was amazed at how quickly the turn off San Felipe arrived; I'm feeling much better here than in previous years.
30K in 2:04:02
19) 6:44 - 2:06:29 I was looking for President GHW Bush and Barbara; in 13 races, I've never seen them.
20) 6:50 - 2:13:09 I think RichardP passed me this mile and I just let him go.
21) 6:54 - 2:20:13
22) 6:56 - 2:27:09 Somewhere near here RobW passed me like I was standing still.
23) 7:02 - 2:34:11
24) 7:20 - 2:41:31 The Allen Parkway Alps took their toll on me.
25) 7:19 - 2:48:51
26.22) 8:46 - 2:57:37 (7:12 pace) I saw a banner for 1/4 mile to go, but didn't see a mile marker for 26.

I'm not really sure why I slowed down so much the last six miles. My legs felt rubbery and I quit looking at my mile splits: a sure recipe for a slowdown. I'm a little disappointed about this part of the race. It wasn't smart to run by myself. I also carried two gels with me and never ate them. I was pretty stupid to give them a 26 mile free ride; they might have helped stave off the crash. On the positive side, I was very happy to place in my age group, especially after being shut out through the entire Fall Warmup Series.

I took a big risk by going with the the Saucony Fastwitch 3 shoes. I couldn't find a cheap pair of familiar shoes before the race. I got this crazy idea two weeks before the race to try out a much lighter shoe. The new shoes didn't arrive until Wednesday and my only pre-race run with them was a marathon-pace run on the track. The size 12½ was a little small for me. If I tried them on beforehand, I probably would have gone for a size 13. But I finished the race without any toenail damage, a marathon first!

RT Brett Gotcher Story and Brightroom Pictures

2010-01-20T12:35:00.006-06:00

Running Times has an interesting interview with Brett Gotcher about his 2:10 marathon debut.

Is the "slideshow" function new?

brightroom event photography

Not Bad for #13

2010-01-17T15:19:00.005-06:00

13th Houston Marathon; 20th Marathon.

568
Checkpoints
10k 0:41:02
Mile 9 - ? not sure why this one didn't register
Half 1:27:08
30k 2:04:02
Marathon 2:57:37
Start Time Offset 00:00:05
Pace 0:06:47
Overall 101
Gender 86
Div 3

I was able to maintain a 6:38 pace through the 30K but then slowed down quite a bit on Allen Parkway. It wasn't anything acute, just rubbery legs. The day was perfect; no excuses. I just couldn't pull it off.

Finish line picture by JohnA

The Calm before the Storm

2010-01-16T08:52:00.010-06:00

I'm going to try using a little lighter shoe this time. The Saucony Fastwitch 3 is 8¾ ounces for my size 12½, about 2 ounces lighter than the Saucony Tangents I used for Houston '09 and '08, and a whopping 4 ounces less than the Nike Zoom Elites I've been using.

The weather seems to be following the forecasts. Some early morning fog is now expected; that's the biggest today. I'm going to wear my sunglasses, so I might have some trouble seeing early in the race. Today's NWS discussion highlights the fog:

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER TEXAS AND THIS FEATURE IS ALSO PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BY THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY DROP AND LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW DECREASES. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WITH WET GROUND...FEEL AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE NICEST DAYS THIS AREA HAS HAD SINCE MID-DECEMBER.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS still projects 40°F at the start and 51°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the upper 30s to 40. No change from yesterday; still very nice for running. They now have a WNW wind at 2 mph to a WNW wind at 5 mph and predict more clouds with sky cover at 67% to 46%.

The 84-hour model now includes marathon morning. This model follows along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the short range models are available now. They show temperatures a little warmer and winds from the northwest.

The Weather Channel now has hourly details for Marathon Sunday. There's very little change from yesterday's forecast:

7 am
Clear, 43°F feels like 41°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from W at 4 mph
sunrise Sunrise 7:17 am
8 am
Sunny, 44°F feels like 42°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 4 mph
9 am
Sunny, 47°F feels like 45°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 4 mph
10 am
Sunny, 51°F feels like 49°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 5 mph
11 am
Sunny, 54°F feels like 53°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 5 mph

AccuWeather now has hourly details for marathon morning. They predict a little warmer conditions:

Sunday, Jan 17
7AM
43°F, RealFeel® 44°F, Dewpoint 39°F
Winds WNW at 2 mph
Partly sunny
8AM
44°F, RealFeel® 47°F, Dewpoint 39°F
Winds WNW at 2 mph
Partly sunny
9AM
49°F, RealFeel® 54°F, Dewpoint 42°F
Winds WNW at 2 mph
Partly sunny
10AM
54°F, RealFeel® 61°F, Dewpoint 44°F
Winds WNW at 3 mph
Partly sunny
11AM
57°F, RealFeel® 64°F, Dewpoint 42°F
Winds W at 5 mph
Partly sunny

I couldn't resist taking a picture of this Watermill Express poster with all of the Tornado runners.

Expo Time

2010-01-15T11:53:00.008-06:00

The Expo has already started so Marathon Weekend has officially arrived. Here's an interesting article about Shalane Flanagan running her first half-marathon Sunday.

The forecast for rain on the coast were right. I have almost 3¼ inches in the rain gauge. It looks like we'll see a cool Sunday morning with the sun warming things up during the race and little problems from the wind. There's not much on today's NWS discussion:

FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY. FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS NICE WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 40°F at the start and 51°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the upper 30s to 40. Not much of a change from yesterday; still very nice for running. They have a NW wind at 3 mph to a WNW wind at 5 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover at 15% to 20%.

The 84-hour model now includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the short range models are available now. They show temperatures a little warmer and winds from the northwest.

The Weather Channel now has hourly details for Marathon Sunday. They show:

7 am
Clear, 42°F feels like 40°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 4 mph
sunrise Sunrise 7:17 am
8 am
Sunny, 44°F feels like 42°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 4 mph
9 am
Sunny, 47°F feels like 45°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from W at 4 mph
10 am
Sunny, 51°F feels like 50°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from W at 4 mph

AccuWeather now has hourly details for marathon morning. They predict a little warmer conditions:

Sunday, Jan 17
7AM
43°F, RealFeel® 45°F, Dewpoint 41°F
Winds WNW at 2 mph
Partly sunny
8AM
45°F, RealFeel® 47°F, Dewpoint 39°F
Winds W at 3 mph
Partly sunny
9AM
50°F, RealFeel® 54°F, Dewpoint 41°F
Winds WSW at 4 mph
Partly sunny
10AM
54°F, RealFeel® 59°F, Dewpoint 41°F
Winds WSW at 5 mph
Partly sunny
11AM
56°F, RealFeel® 61°F, Dewpoint 40°F
Winds WSW at 6 mph
Partly sunny

Last Real Training Run and the M-3 Forecasts

2010-01-14T11:32:00.004-06:00

I ran my traditional "goal marathon pace run on the track" last night. Everything went well, although I ended up running a little faster than I wanted. We'll see how it all works out.

The forecasts remain amazingly consistent (and consistently favorable), but there's been a slight warming trend. Today's NWS discussion:

THE MAIN FORECAST DETAILS TO IRON OUT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GULF WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A MESO LOW OR SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE. AT THE SAME TIME ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS UP THROUGH S TX AND BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT NE OVER S TX AND THE TX GULF COAST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF FRI. THE GFS CONTINUES A TREND OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP OFF THE COAST IN THE GULF. THE FORECAST WILL GO MORE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH NOT ONLY KEEPS PRECIP IN THE GULF BUT ALSO HAS WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER TX DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. FLOODING STILL SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT MOISTURE MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH WITH PRECIP WATER
AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP THAT LINGERS OVER SE TX.

STRONG EAST WINDS ON FRI STILL SHOULD ELEVATE TIDES A GOOD 1-2 FEET BUT OVERALL TIDE LEVELS MAY NOT BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. SHOULD WINDS BECOME ENHANCED WITH A MORE INTENSE SFC LOW...TIDE LEVELS MAY BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. THIS STILL BEARS WATCHING AND STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE TUE/WED NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 41°F at the start and 52°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the upper 30s to 40. That's warmer, but still very nice for running. They have a NNW wind at 5 mph to a SW wind at 2 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover at 15% to 22%.

The 84-hour model now includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 42°F and winds down to 7mph in the morning.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NW 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 87%
Clouds early/Clearing late

For Sunday they show:
High 63°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 74%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Mostly Sunny

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday their detailed forecasts. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 36 °F
Winds WNW at 10 mph with gusts to 17 mph
Clear

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 62°F RealFeel®: 64°F
Winds E at 7 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Partly sunny and warmer

The M-4 Forecasts

2010-01-13T11:41:00.009-06:00

When will the low pressure area depart? If it leaves too late, we'll have strong north winds and the chance of rain Marathon morning. If it leaves too early, we could see warmer temperatures and more humidity and possibly strong Gulf winds. Despite this uncertainty, the forecasts have been surprisingly consistent (and consistently favorable). Today's NWS discussion:

YESTERDAY CONDITIONS WARMED UP NICELY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS SE TX. IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S ONCE MORE BUT THIS WILL LARGELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OLD MEXICO AND IS PUSHING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND S TX THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW FOR SE TX WILL BE INCREASED LOW/MID CLOUD COVER BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR DECENT HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN TO THE SE WHICH WILL AID HEATING. THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SWINGS OFF TO THE NE OVER TX AS THE NEXT DEVELOPING TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW THIS NEXT TROUGH BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. A STRONG JET STREAK SHOULD PUNCH INTO THE BACK OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO DROP SOUTHWARD. THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW SHOULD TAKE SHAPE THU NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF C MEXICO INTO S TX. THU AND THU NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISO THUNDERSTORMS BUT SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE MODELS WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL LOW THAT DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS COASTAL LOW EVOLVES ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE MAY IN FACT BE MULTIPLE SFC LOWS DEPENDING ON WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE GULF. REGARDLESS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE UPPER TX COAST WHICH PERSIST FOR A GOOD 12 TO 24 HRS. ELEVATED TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE SO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY. THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD TRACK EAST ACROSS THE N GULF INTO THE MISS RIVER DELTA LATE SATURDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...GENERALLY STILL 1 TO 3 INCHES... WILL FALL ON FRI FOR SE TX. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WERE TRIMMED DOWN SOME FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SE TX BUT STILL KEPT 80 POPS FOR WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3`S OF SE TX. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA CAN HANDLE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH OUT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST A LITTLE BE BEHIND THE SFC LOW BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. POPS WERE TRIMMED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF WHEN PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUN AND MON NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE DRY AND COULD BE A TAD WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS MAINLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SW ESPECIALLY AT 850MB. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RETURN MON/TUE NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM ADVECTION. SE TX MAY HAVE 3 DAYS IN A ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MON/TUE/WED.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 41°F at the start and 50°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the 30s. That's warmer, but still very nice for running. They have a WNW wind at 6 mph to a W wind at 7 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover at 20%.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 41°F and winds at 14mph in the morning.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 50%
Wind: NW 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 87%
Showers

For Sunday they show:
High 62°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 74%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Sunny

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday their detailed forecasts. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 37 °F
Winds W at 9 mph with gusts to 16 mph
Mainly clear

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 60°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Winds SSW at 8 mph with gusts to 16 mph
Partly sunny

M-5 2010 Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

2010-01-12T17:10:00.007-06:00

The big weather story remains a gradual warm-up as air from the Gulf returns. Then a low pressure area developing in the Western Gulf causing heavy rain Wednesday to Friday, with strong north winds blowing in colder air Friday and Saturday. The big question right now is when the North winds start decreasing. A strong North wind can make the trip up Post Oak very difficult. Today's NWS discussion:

IT IS NOT QUITE AS COLD HAS IT HAD BEEN THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS SE TX WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW FREEZING. STILL THIS IS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. WEAK SFC RIDGE STILL OVER THE UPPER TX COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OFF TO THE NE OF SE TX. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND THIS WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SPLIT JET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER EXCEPT FOR CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT THU AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NOR MEXICO WITH A FAIRLY POTENT JET STREAK AND VORTICITY MAX PUSHING INTO IT. THIS MAY CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO DROP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT SOME OF THE MODELS EXPECT. AT THIS TIME...THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THU WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES JUST OFF THE COASTAL BEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS COASTAL LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND MAY BE DUE TO IT KEYING IN ON CONVECTION. STILL...DIFFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS THU AND THU NIGHT. INSTABILITY MAY BE HARD TO COME BY FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE VERTICAL MOTIONS. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF REALLY HIT PRECIP HARD FOR 12Z FRI WHERE LIFT IS MAXED OUT AND THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN. DECIDED TO GO WITH 80 POPS FOR THE WHOLE AREA BUT THIS MAY BE A TAD HIGH FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SE TX. THE 12Z FRI TO 00Z SAT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND SOME COULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY FORCED CONVECTION. FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PROBLEM AS MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. PRECIP WATER VALUES ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE TENTHS SHY OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. ALL SAID AND DONE...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT COULD INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. THIS OTHER THREAT TO MONITOR WILL BE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE COASTS OF GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES. STRONG EAST WINDS AND A LONG FETCH WILL BUILD UP WAVE ACTION AND TIDE LEVELS. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BUT LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND ITS INTENSITY.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO S LA. REALLY SHOULD JUST SEE LIGHT RAIN AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SUN. SUN MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING TEMPS. MAX TEMPS ON SUN AND MON WILL MODIFY NICELY BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 38°F at the start and 47°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the 30s. That's nearly perfect for me. They have a NW wind at 7 mph to a NNW wind at 6 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover going from 32% to 29%.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 40°F and strong winds (17mph) in the morning.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
Clouds Early/Clearing Late

For Sunday they show:
High 59°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WNW 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night on their 5-day forecast. and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 34 °F
Winds NNW at 11 mph with gusts to 23 mph
Partly cloudy

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 58 °F
Warmer with sunshine and some clouds

Here's a story from Let'sRun/the Marathon on the elites that will be lining up Sunday.

Latest 2010 Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

2010-01-11T11:29:00.004-06:00

The forecasts are starting to get meaningful now. The big weather story remains a gradual warm-up into the week as air from the Gulf returns. Then a low pressure area developing in the Western Gulf causing heavy rain Thursday-Friday, with strong north winds blowing in colder air Saturday. The big question right now is when the North winds start decreasing. A strong North wind can make the trip up Post Oak very difficult. Today's NWS discussion mentions the Marathon:

TUE 00Z A COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL DROP SOUTH AND SHOULD REACH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND 15Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY AIR BUT OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME MAJOR CHANGES THIS WEEK. AFTER THIS RECORD SETTING ARCTIC COLD SNAP THE PATTERN WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SW U.S. AND NRN MEX WED-FRI. THE 850 RIDGE OVER CRP 12Z WED WILL SHIFT EAST LEADING TO INCREASINGLY STRONG SE-E FLOW. VIGOROUS MOISTURE RETURN THURSDAY WILL MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE DRAMATICALLY AND THE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COASTAL WATERS MAY BE VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THEN EXPAND NORTH. THE STRONG FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED TIDES...SEE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE VERY SATURATED AND CAPABLE OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SHRA/TSRA TRANSITIONING TO RA/SHRA SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SIMILAR WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE COASTAL BEND REGION TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY...EVENTUALLY KICKING OUT A LOW ESE ARCING UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO LA. SLOWER UPPER MOVEMENT RESULTS IN A SURFACE LOW STILL OVER HARRIS COUNTY AT 12Z SATURDAY PER ECMWF WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF LA. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT GIVEN THE UPPER CUTOFF FLOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD THE MEX GUIDANCE BUT HAVE BIASED THESE WARMER ON MINS AND COOLER ON MAX TEMPS ON ACCOUNT OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. A MILD DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE BIG MARATHON ON SUNDAY WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WARMING TO NEAR 50 BY NOON.
Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 42°F at the start and 49°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the 30s. That's nearly perfect for me. They have a NNW wind from 8 to 7 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover going from 40% to 32%.

The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 37°F and strong winds (18mph) in the morning.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 39°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NW 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
Clouds Early/Clearing Late

For Sunday they show:
High 57°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WNW 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Partly Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 34 °F
Mostly cloudy

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 60 °F RealFeel®: 59 °F
Warmer with partial sunshine

Week 17: Taper, One Week to Go!

2010-01-10T07:27:00.009-06:00

47 miles for the week (January 4th to 10th)

M - 8¼ miles recovery run at 8:15 pace, day off from work, 46°F at 3PM
Tu - 5¾ miles at 6:58 pace, 34°F at 4AM
W - 5¼ miles at 7:03 pace, 39°F at 4AM
Th - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:46 pace, 62°F at 4AM and raining
F - missed, the cold I got last week developed into a bad sore throat and irritating cough. I took the day off to try and recover; plus it was the coldest day here in over 12 years.
Sa - 9 miles felt easy but it ended up being 6:40 pace, bright sun but only 41°F from 2:30PM
Su - 13 miles, average 7:13 pace, 42°F from 1PM

I felt the better early in the week than I have for months. But around Wednesday, the cold I picked up last week, turned to a very irritating cough. I took Friday off, and was pleasantly surprised at how easy Saturday's fast run felt.

The big weather story is a gradual warm-up into the week as air from the Gulf returns. Then a low pressure area could develop in the Western Gulf causing heavy rain Thursday-Friday, with strong north winds blowing in colder air Saturday. This could be another interesting week watching the forecast develop. Here's the NWS discussion:

UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND IMW WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY WITH A TROUGH SWINGING IN BENEATH THE RIDGE AND OVER TX BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY CLOUDS SHOULD BE AN ISSUE AND MAINLY OVER THE SW HALF. WARMUP TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THIS PATTERN WITH THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS BUT THE SWATH NORTH OF A CROCKETT TO CORRIGAN LINE. ANOTHER HIGH DROPS SOUTH AND REINFORCES THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE INCREASES AS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS LOW THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE THE SW US AND NW MEX BORDER THU-FRI. VERY IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN WITH GFS INDICATING PW OF 1.3" TO 1.5" COINCIDENT WITH TREMENDOUS LIFT SO HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE THU-FRI PERIOD. 00Z GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA...IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THEN COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES BUT THESE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE HARD TO HANG A HAT ON AS BEING THE SOLUTION. RAINS SHOULD BE COMING TO END SATURDAY MORNING WITH A MODERATELY DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA (NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).

The 7.5-day model now includes marathon morning. This model still shows temperature and dewpoints starting in the 30s and warming to the fifties, with a light north wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MOS model. shows a low of 42°F and strong winds in the morning.

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NW 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 81%
Cloudy

For Sunday they show:
High 57°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Mostly Cloudy

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 39 °F RealFeel®: 34 °F
Low clouds

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 63 °F
Rather cloudy and warmer

The weather this weekend has been remarkable. We used to get cold days like this fairly often, but they've been very rare the last 15 years.

It's Cold Down Here!

2010-01-08T13:59:00.007-06:00

2010 Houston Marathon Weather Update

The 16-day model now shows temperature and dewpoints starting in the 30s, and not increasing above 40 through the day with a light northwest wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They're lowering the predicted morning temperature, but still show a warm afternoon:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 35°F RealFeel®: 32°F
Partly Cloudy

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 63°F RealFeel®: 67°F
Mostly sunny and warmer

The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 45°F
Precip 60%
Wind: W 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 89%

For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 30%
Wind: WNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 74%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT

Today, the weather buzz is this weekend's extreme cold. This morning's low was below 28°F down here on the coast.

Another Houston Marathon Weather Forecast Update

2010-01-07T11:32:00.005-06:00

I'm working hard this year to limit myself to updating the long range forecast every couple of days.

The 16-day model is back to showing temperature and dewpoints starting in the 40s, and then increasing toward 60 through the day with an increasing southeast wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].

AccuWeather has Saturday night on their 6 to 10 day forecast. and Sunday on their 11 to 15 day forecast. They also increase the predicted temperatures:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 46°F RealFeel®: 44°F
Clear

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Sunshine and some clouds with a shower in the afternoon

The cold I caught last week has gotten worse. It's now mostly a scratchy sore throat and cough. I think it might be affecting my running now too. I'm also not sleeping as well with this irritating cough.

2010 Houston Marathon Weather Update

2010-01-05T11:58:00.003-06:00

The 16-day model now shows temperature and dewpoints starting in the 30s, and temperature only increasing into the 40s and nearly no wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].

AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 11 to 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 32°F RealFeel®: 33°F
Clear

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 61°F RealFeel®: 66°F
Brilliant Sunshine

Gambatte!

2010-01-04T21:40:00.003-06:00

In Japan kids usually aren't wished "Good Luck" before a big test (or an important race). Rather, they're told "Gambatte", to persevere, never give up,....do your best. I don't ever want to finish a marathon looking like this, but I'd be honoured to reach a fraction of his Gambatte spirit:

Week 16: One Last Push Before Taper

2010-01-04T09:15:00.002-06:00

91¼ miles for the week (December 28th to January 3rd)

M AM - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:31 pace, Stars! 42°F at 4AM
M PM - missed
Tu - 13 miles at 7:05 pace, 51°F from 11AM
W - 14 miles at 7:24 pace, 53°F from 3PM; plus another 1¾ easy miles to recover car
Th - 11 miles easy at 8:19 pace, 51°F at 1PM
F - 13¼ miles with 5 miles at LT about 6:11 pace, overall average 6:58 pace, 53°F at 1PM with some sun
Sa - 11½ miles easy at 8:30 pace, some sun and 55°F at 11AM
Su - 20 miles, average 7:21 pace, 52°F from 2PM

After missing three runs last week, I decided to go to a two-week taper and put in some extra mileage this week. I got a nasty cold Thursday, but it didn't seem to hurt my running. The nice cool temperatures certainly helped!

The First Weather Forecast for the 2010 Houston Marathon

2010-01-02T09:50:00.004-06:00

This post is outdated now.

01-13-10 Edit

Click here for the latest 2010 Houston Marathon weather updates.

The 16-day model now includes marathon morning. The model shows temperature and dewpoints in the middle 40s, but both increasing through the day [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].

AccuWeather has Saturday night on their 11 to 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 46 °F RealFeel®: 47 °F
Partly cloudy

Week 14 and 15: Uh-Oh

2009-12-28T17:25:00.007-06:00

I was a little surprised the 30K race didn't hit me much harder than a normal Sunday long run. Of course I was disappointed by my performance in the 30K, but at least it shows I'm capable of sub-3 on a good day this year. I wanted to run the 30K in about 2 hours (6:30 pace) and was in a good group at that pace the first half, with RichF, the lead woman, and another guy. But I left them drift ahead of me a little on the second loop. The water stop at the turnaround for the third loop was crowded and I overran the last person with water. I had to turn around and run back to get to someone passing out water. I completely lost contact with the group running 6:30s. Not that I could see very far; I ran the race blind without my glasses because of the fog and mist. I tried to maintain pace, but I slowed into the upper 6:40s. Just after the end of the third loop I was blown away by DaleL, another 50+. He passed me so fast I couldn't try to keep up with him. I ended up fifth in the 50 to 54 age group. I can't believe I used to look forward to turning 50.

77 miles for the week (December 14th to 20th)
M AM - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:40 pace, foggy 59°F at 4AM
M PM - missed
Tu - 6¾ miles at 7:25 pace, 66°F and foggy again at 4AM
W AM - 7¼ miles at 7:25 pace, 49°F and windy at 4AM
W PM - 5 miles with 6x600/200 at an average 7:11 pace, 600s in 2:09 to 2:01, 49°F and occasional light rain
Th - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:14 pace, raining and 48°F at 4AM
F - 15¼ miles at 7:15 pace, 54°F at 10PM
Sa - 10¼ miles recovery run at 8:40 pace, some sun and 63°F at 1PM
Su - 20 miles LSD, average 7:36 pace, sunny and nice, 56 to 59°F from Noon

54¾ miles for the week (December 21st to 27th)
M - 10 miles recovery run at 8:46 pace, 65°F at 3PM
Tu - missed, traveled to Glen Rose to get furnace repaired (600+ mile round trip), 66°F morning low temperature
W - 11¾ miles with 4x1M, miles in 6:12, 6:02, 6:04, and 6:05, average pace 7:48, 74°F windy and humid at 11AM
Th - missed, just too busy, 71°F at midnight but a strong cold front came in and lowered temperature down to the 40s by the end of the day
F - missed, too busy again, 35°F morning low
Sa - 11 miles at 7:23 pace, 52°F at 5PM with continuous light rain
Su - 22 miles LSD with some sub-7 miles near the end, average 7:15 pace, sunny and nice, 55 to 58°F from Noon

I can usually find the time to keep up with marathon training through the holidays but it just didn't work out this year. Week 15 was supposed to be 91 miles, the last hard week before beginning a three-week taper. I was very discouraged Saturday. But Sunday's long run reminded me of why I enjoy distance running. I'll push as hard as I can this week and cut the taper to two weeks. This marathon won't be a PR, but I still hope for a strong race.

Week 13: Still Not Performing

2009-12-13T18:57:00.006-06:00

82 miles for Week 13 (December 7th to December 13th)

On vacation all week
M - 9½ miles recovery run at 8:57 pace, 60°F raining with deep puddles at 5PM
Tu - 15 miles medium long run at 7:33 pace, 74°F windy and humid with deep puddles at 3PM
W - 10½ miles easy at 7:50 pace, 56°F at 11AM
Th - 11¾ miles with 4x1 mile hard, average 7:12 pace, miles in 6:18, 6:04, 5:57, and 6:01, 43°F and windy at 10AM
F - 8¼ miles easy at 7:54 pace in Glen Rose, my left knee bothered me on the hills, 46°F at 1PM
Sa - 7 miles recovery at 8:20 pace, 68°F at Noon
Su - 20 miles with a 30K race at an average 6:38 pace, 47°F from 7AM with fog and mist

The 30K time was a little better than the earlier races, but it's still not near where I want to be.

Here's a little copperhead I nearly ran over on Wednesday:

Houston Marathon Training Week12: Knee Again?

2009-12-08T08:48:00.002-06:00

72½ miles for Week 12 (November 30th to December 6th)

M AM - 6¼ miles recovery run at 8:43 pace, 55°F windy and raining at 4AM
M PM - missed
Tu - 6¾ miles general aerobic at 7:09 pace, 51°F windy and raining at 4AM
W AM - 6¾ miles general aerobic at 7:28 pace, 47°F at 4AM
W PM - 6 miles on the track, 6x600 with 200 recoveries, my left knee started bothering me on the turns, 600s from 2:07 to 2:09, average pace 7:04, 48°F at 7PM
Th - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:13 pace, 46°F at 4AM
F - 11 miles medium long run at 7:27 pace, my left knee started bothering me again, 35°F starting at 4:30PM (first 30s this Fall)
Sa - 10 miles easy at 8:41 pace, 47°F at 3PM
Su - 20 miles at an average 7:41 pace, left knee started complaining quite a bit the last couple of miles, 63°F from 1PM with continuous rain

The knee flair-up was a huge disappointment. I want to do the work, but dealing with this knee is just more frustration. I think I made a mistake by combining scheduled 6/4 recovery run doubles into one easy to get done run during my days off from work. Those ten mile recovery runs probably were too much of a stress. I still have hope for the Sugar Land 30K, but if the knee isn't back to 100% I won't be able to race.

Catching Up: Weeks 9, 10, and 11

2009-11-29T20:12:00.004-06:00

I've been busy with the power plant finishing its refueling outage and then the Thanksgiving holiday. I'm also still somewhat discouraged with my training.

73¼ miles for Week 9 (November 9th to 15th)

M AM - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:37 pace, 70°F at 4AM
M PM - missed
Tu AM - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:32 pace, 64°F at 4AM
Tu PM - 4 miles on the treadmill at the power plant, 8:08 pace
W AM - 11 miles general aerobic at 7:15 pace, 62°F at 4AM
W PM - 7 miles on the track, average pace 6:46, 69°F at 7PM, plus another 1¼ miles to pick up my wife's van
Th AM - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:23 pace, 59°F at 4AM
Th PM - missed
F - 13 miles medium long run at 7:16 pace, 71 to 74°F starting at 9AM (home waiting for the power plant to heat up)
Sa - 7½ miles easy at 8:11 pace, 79°F at 9AM with a Gulf breeze
Su - 9 miles at an average 7:21 pace, 78°F from 4PM after working all day at the power plant; came home too late for a long run

73¾ miles for Week 10 (November 16th to 22nd)

M AM - 4¾ miles recovery run at 8:16 pace, 75°F at 4AM
M PM - missed
Tu - 7¾ miles general aerobic at 7:09 pace, 46°F at 4AM first 40s of the season!
W AM - 7¼ miles hard general aerobic at 6:54 pace, 47°F at 4AM
W PM - 6 miles on the track, 6x600 with 200 recoveries, sped up on each 600, from 2:10 to 2:04, average pace 6:59, 65°F at 7PM
Th AM - 4 miles recovery run at 8:01 pace, 64°F at 4AM (woke up late)
Th PM - missed
F - 13 miles medium long run at 7:23 pace, rain all day with deep puddles, 66°F starting at 4:30PM
Sa - 9 miles easy at 8:44 pace, overcast 58°F at Noon
Su - 22 miles at an average 7:21 pace, 57 to 62°F from 9AM

Running in the cool 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday morning felt wonderful.

75 miles for Week 11 (November 23rd to 29th)

M - 10 miles recovery run at 8:54 pace, 71°F at 10AM (vacation day)
Tu - 10 miles recovery run at 8:30 pace, 66°F at 11AM (vacation day)
W - 11 miles medium long run at 7:17 pace, 64°F from 4:20PM, started too late to finish scheduled 15-miler (vacation day)
Th - 10 miles recovery run at 8:32 pace, 58°F from 10AM (Thanksgiving Day)
F AM - missed a 12-miler with 7 miles at LT; just felt bad
F PM - missed 4 mile recovery run, busy with family
Sa - 10 miles easy at 8:22 pace, 71°F at Noon with a Gulf breeze picking up
Su - 24 miles at an average 7:37 pace, 76 to 75°F with the dewpoint in the upper 60s°F starting at 10:45AM

There were some decent long runs, but I was disappointed I didn't even attempt the hard LT run on Friday. I don't know whether it was from Thanksgiving dinner or just apprehension about a long, difficult run, but I felt horrible that morning. At least there's another two weeks before the Sugar Land 30K.

We're getting pretty close to race time:

Week 8: New Shoes But Same Old Racing Rut

2009-11-13T21:49:00.009-06:00

My new Nike Air Zoom Elite-4s arrived Friday. Here they are with my Mizuno Elixirs (916 miles) and Saucony Tangents (894 miles).

81¾ miles for Week 8 (November 2nd to 8th)

M AM - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:50 pace, 55°F at 4AM
M PM - 4 miles on the treadmill at the power plant, 8:23 pace
Tu - 7¾ miles general aerobic at 7:15 pace, 57°F at 4AM
W AM - 10 miles general aerobic at 7:12 pace, 57°F at 4AM
W PM - 6 miles on the track, average pace 6:34, 66°F at 7PM, these miles felt so much better with the cooler temperatures
Th AM - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:18 pace, 59°F at 4AM
Th PM - missed
F - 8¾ miles easy general aerobic at 7:37 pace, 58°F at 4AM
F - 4 miles on the treadmill at the power plant, 8:11 pace
Sa - 7½ miles easy at 8:42 pace, 78°F at Noon with a Gulf breeze picking up
Su - 20¼ miles with a 25K race at an average 6:55 pace, Hobby Airport had 70 to 71°F with the dewpoint 66 to 67°F (YUCK) at least it stayed overcast

The weather was beautiful this week, EXCEPT for Sunday's 25K race. Even considering the warm weather, I wasn't happy with my performance. I was encouraged by this week's training and thought I had a good shot at a decent 25K. At least there's another four weeks before the Sugar Land 30K.

These first three races don't project any glimmer of a new marathon PR:

Marathon Equivalent Performance
10M: 3:09:51
Half marathon: 3:08:03
25K: 3:08:08

Karen Thibodeaux has some good pictures, I like the ones rounding the corner leaving downtown. Stupid water-saving washing machines!

Week 7: Inspiration!

2009-11-03T15:56:00.005-06:00

I watched Meb tear up Central Park Sunday morning and then I got the chance to run my first 22-mile long run under a beautiful deep blue sky in nice cool, dry air. You'd have to be dead to not be inspired.

75¾ miles for Week 7 (October 26th to November 1st)

M AM - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:45 pace, 78°F at 4AM
M PM - missed
Tu - 7¾ miles general aerobic at 7:25 pace, 56°F at 4AM but not feeling very good (blew off a planned tempo run)
W AM - 10 miles general aerobic at 7:24 pace, 70°F at 4AM
W PM - 6 miles on the track, average pace 7:24, 80°F and very humid at 7PM, added another 1¼ miles to pick up a car
Th AM - 4 miles recovery run at 8:44 pace, 81°F at 4AM, just before I went out to run I heard a noise in the garage and found the hose to the washing machine spraying water into a flooded garage
Th PM - missed (replaced the washing machine hoses and valves)
F - 10 miles general aerobic at 7:27 pace, heavy rain and deep puddles, but a nice cool 57°F at 4AM
Sa - 9 miles easy at 7:38 pace, 69°F at Noon, very nice and sunny!
Su - 22 miles averaging 7:38 pace, very nice and sunny, 71 to 72°F from 11:30AM with the dewpoint in hte upper 40s!

I'm hoping this inspiration and nice weather will carry over to Sunday's 25K race.
I still need a new pair of shoes.

Week 6: I Need New Shoes

2009-10-29T14:38:00.004-06:00

My current running shoes, Mizuno Elixirs, now have over 900 miles on them. I think I'm starting to feel it too, especially in the lower legs. I've been searching shoe sales, but I haven't found a pair of lightweight support shoes for under $70. To make matters worse, I lost my work shoes at the power plant on Monday. I had to walk in pouring rain from the office building to the plant, getting my shoes completely soaked. And wet shoes are contamination magnets:

So I had to buy new work shoes Monday evening. I still don't have new running shoes.

72 miles for Week 6 (October 19th to October 25th)

M AM - 6¼ miles recovery run at 8:26 pace, 58°F at 4AM
M PM - 4 miles recovery run at 8:03 pace on the treadmill at the power plant
Tu - 10 miles general aerobic at 7:19 pace, 76°F at 4AM
W AM - 8¾ miles general aerobic at 7:31 pace, 79°F at 4AM
W PM - 6 miles on the track, average pace 7:05, 79°F and very humid at 7PM
Th - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:41 pace, raining and 76°F at 4AM
F - 5¾ miles general aerobic at 7:35 pace, a very nice 56°F at 4AM but I drove to San Antonio Thursday evening to pick up my daughter from UTSA and didn't make it back home until after midnight
Sa - 7 miles recovery at 9:00 pace, 73°F at Noon, very nice and sunny!
Su - 17 miles with a half marathon race averaging 6:48 pace, overcast to partly cloudy, Hobby Airport had 66 to 71°F from 7AM, with the dewpoint going from 58 to 61°F and a east-southeast wind at 5 to 8 mph. A little better than the humid 75 to 76°F down on the coast where I live.

The half marathon was another disappointment. I wish there was more time until the 25K.

Good luck to everyone running the New York City Marathon Sunday, including Peter Sagal from Wait-Wait Don't Tell Me!

You can't mention NYC without Grete
Photo Gallery: NYC Marathon: Grete Waitz - Universal Sports

Week 4 and 5: First Test

2009-10-21T14:51:00.006-06:00

Houston Marathon Training Week 4 finished with my first test, the Space City 10-Miler in Clear Lake. I failed.
The weather was decent: overcast, 63-61°F with the dewpoint at 61 to 59°F and a light North 7 to 8 mph wind. I started out easy, but even a 6:25 first mile felt hard. When I ran a 6:39 second mile, I knew I didn't have it. I don't know if it's the slow running because of the recent heat and humidity, or if I'm getting too old, or if it was just a bad day.

74 miles for Week 4 (October 5th to October 11th)

M AM - 6¼ miles recovery run at 8:55 pace, 82°F at 4AM
M PM - 4 miles recovery run at 8:17 pace on the treadmill at the power plant
Tu - 10 miles general aerobic at 7:47 pace, very warm and humid 84°F at 4AM
W AM - 8¾ miles general aerobic at 7:46 pace, 84°F at 4AM with the dewpoint inland at Angleton all the way up to 80°F
W PM - 6 miles on the track, average pace 7:15, 85°F and very humid at 7PM
Th - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:41 pace, full Summer heat 85°F at 4AM
F - 8¾ miles general aerobic at 7:57 pace, another Summer morning, 85°F at 4AM
Sa - 7 miles recovery at 9:06 pace, 59°F at 9AM, so much better!
Su - 16½ miles with a 10-mile race averaging 6:47 pace, overcast 63-61°F from 7AM

66 miles for Week 5 (October 12th to October 18th)

M AM - 6¼ miles recovery run at 8:57 pace, 71°F at 4AM
M PM - 4 miles recovery run at 8:02 pace on the treadmill at the power plant
Tu - 10 miles general aerobic at 7:36 pace, very warm and humid 84°F at 4AM
W - had a very bad sore throat and took the entire day off, maybe that's my excuse for racing so poorly Sunday, 83°F at 4AM
Th - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:28 pace, 82°F at 4AM
F - 10 miles general aerobic at 7:38 pace, 71°F at 4AM
Sa - 9 miles easy at 8:00 pace, 68°F at 11AM, sunny and nice dry air
Su - 20 miles averaging 7:36 pace, beautiful sunny day, 68°F from 11AM It's so much more fun to run in nice cool, dry air!

There just isn't enough time to prepare for the Houston Half Marathon this Sunday. I'm afraid that's going to be another disaster.

Week 3: Cold Fronts Welcome Here

2009-10-05T14:47:00.003-06:00

Attention all Cold Fronts: Please come on down to the Gulf and please feel welcome to stay as long as you want. We really want you to visit.

72¾ miles for the week (September 28th to October 4th)

M - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:35 pace, 82°F at 4AM
Tu - 9½ miles general aerobic at 7:33 pace, the schedule had 4@LT included as part of this run, but I was worn out after just one LT mile, 74°F at 4AM
W AM - 8¾ miles general aerobic at 7:20 pace, 69°F at 4AM
W PM - 6 miles on the track, tried to run Tuesday’s 4@LT but I was dead after just 1½ miles, average pace 6:59, 80°F and very humid at 7PM
Th - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:26 pace, 82°F at 4AM
F - 10½ miles general aerobic at 7:51 pace, 80°F at 4AM
Sa - 7½ miles recovery at 8:47 pace, 79°F at 11AM
Su - 18 miles LSD with emphasis on the ‘S’, average 8:40 pace, sunny and unbelievably humid 86 to 87°F from 2:30PM

Wednesday morning's cool weather only lasted a few hours and by Wednesday evening's run the dewpoint was back in the 70s. Friday morning's run was just before some severe thunderstorms came through and Friday ended up being a very pleasant day. But by the time Saturday came along, it was back to warm and humid. Sunday was just awful.

Work Versus Week 2

2009-09-29T19:01:00.005-06:00

Two Runs this Week Below 70°F!

52 miles for the week (September 21st to 27th)

M - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:46 pace, 82°F at 4AM
Tu - 7¾ miles general aerobic at 7:31 pace, very warm and humid 83°F at 4AM
W AM - 6¾ miles general aerobic at 7:19 pace, 69°F at 4AM
W PM - 7 miles slowing picking up the pace on the track, average pace 7:01, 72°F at 7PM
Th - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:31 pace, 68°F at 4AM
F - 12 miles general aerobic at 7:47 pace, 76°F from 10:30AM
Sa - 7 miles recovery at 8:47 pace, 79°F at 11AM
Su - received a 3AM call-in to work at the power plant, humid and foggy morning, low 76°F

After oppressive morning runs in the 80s Monday and Tuesday, the first 60s of the Fall came through to the coast. 69°F feels so much better than 83°F! But the warm and humid air was back by the weekend. Sunday's planned 18 miles would have been a struggle if I had a chance to run it.

Here is proof there is some athletic talent in my family. My nephew Cody is one of the incoming freshmen on the UCLA baseball team. He's third from the left in the second row.

Week 1 Is in the Book

2009-09-21T16:08:00.000-06:00

123 days since last run below 70°F

66 miles for the week (September 14th to 20th)

M AM - 4¾ miles recovery run at 8:32 pace, 75°F at 4AM
M PM - 1¾ miles recovery run at 8:27 pace, 77°F at 9PM
Tu - 8 miles general aerobic at 7:12 pace, 72°F at 4AM
W AM - 5¾ miles general aerobic at 7:41 pace, 74°F at 4AM
W PM - 6¼ miles steady on the track, average pace 7:12, 85°F at 7PM
Th - 4¾ miles recovery run at 8:31 pace, 75°F at 4AM
F - 10 miles general aerobic at 7:32 pace, 77°F from 10AM
Sa - 7¾ miles recovery at 8:27 pace, 76°F at 9AM
Su - 17 miles LSD with emphasis on the ‘S’, average 8:16 pace, sunny but humid 84 to 86°F from before 10AM

Nothing fast this week, but at least I was able to complete all of the runs.

18 Weeks to GO!

2009-09-14T11:11:00.009-06:00

Ready or not, the 18-week Houston Marathon training has begun. I haven't had a convincing recovery from hurting my right ankle back on Wednesday evening at the beginning of the month. I was desperate so I tried running in compression socks to help ease the stress on my Achilles tendon. I always thought Paula Radcliffe was silly in her compression socks and I'm not sure they really help at all. But at this point I'm willing to take advantage of anything I can, even if it is just a placebo effect. I ran a decent 8+ miler Friday, my first non-recovery pace run since that Wednesday the 2nd. So far the AT is OK. I certainly have max'ed out on the geek quotient though:

There's still plenty of time before the marathon. I've been considering taking some time off and starting fresh. But I just sent in my entry for the Space City 10-Miler. With only four weeks to go, that race is my biggest concern now.

The alligators at work have been loving this recent rain. Here's a picture of a 'gator party along the sidewalk between our office building and the power plant:

Not Again

2009-09-05T10:14:00.006-06:00

2009 has been a frustrating year. In March, just as I was finally recovered from the marathon and ran a decent 8K race, my left knee started bothering me. I took a few weeks off, and struggled through the Summer to slowly build back up. Wednesday evening I ran five miles on the track and was feeling good. The first mile was a 6:53 and I slowly sped up to a 6:32 fourth mile. I was still feeling good and sped up to 6:00 pace for the last mile. But on the first turn of the third lap I felt a momentary pain in my right ankle. The pain came back a few more times on each curve. I debated immediately stopping, but slowed a little and finished the fifth mile in 6:22. After walking about thirty yards, my ankle tightened up and walking remained difficult every step. I'm suspecting I did something to my Achilles tendon. There's no swelling but it it still hurt some Thursday morning. I had to do a pressure test walkdown at the power plant, but thankfully my ankle quit hurting the more I walked. I was considering running Friday, but the ankle was still a little tender walking.
I can't believe this year. Whenever I can see the light at the end of the tunnel, it ends up being a train.

I heard about this video clip from Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me this morning:

Speed Walker vs. Samurai

"And he doesn't run very fast"
I love it.

The Dog Days of Summer Are Over

2009-09-02T16:10:00.005-06:00

It's been a difficult Summer, but it's finally cooling down here. It was 73°F this morning with a little ground fog and it felt wonderful. This was the coolest running conditions I've seen for over three months, or 104 days to be exact. The moon was out and Orion and Sirius were both visible in the East. I've used the constellation Orion as a signal that it's time to get serious about training for the Houston Marathon. Orion will be out each morning as the training gets intense, and by January when it's time to start tapering, Orion will be walking on the edge of the western horizon.

Summer '09 really was a bad one. Here are the data for Clute (June, July, and August):

2009
Average Daily Low Temperature 81.0°F
Median Daily Low Temperature 82.1°F
Average Daily High Temperature 91.0°F
Median Daily High Temperature 91.2°F

2008
Average Daily Low Temperature 79.8°F
Median Daily Low Temperature 79.0°F
Average Daily High Temperature 89.9°F
Median Daily High Temperature 90.0°F

2007
Average Daily Low Temperature 81.3°F
Median Daily Low Temperature 81.7°F
Average Daily High Temperature 90.4°F
Median Daily High Temperature 90.6°F

2006
Average Daily Low Temperature 77.4°F
Median Daily Low Temperature 77.0°F
Average Daily High Temperature 87.5°F
Median Daily High Temperature 88.0°F