13th Houston Marathon

This was one my worst Fall Warmup Series in years. But I had a decent 30K race in December and I started running much better with the colder weather during the weeks before the marathon. The first three Fall Series races projected a marathon time of 3:08 to 3:10 and the 30K Race poointed to about 2:58. My plan was to shoot for about 6:40 miles and put the brakes on anything faster than 6:35.

For the record, Hobby Airport had:

Time....Temp...Dewpoint....Visibility....Wind.......Conditions
6:53AM - 42.1 °F - 39.9 °F - 7.0 miles - West 4.6 mph - Partly Cloudy
7:18AM - 41.0 °F - 39.2 °F - 2.5 miles - WNW 5.8 mph - Scattered Clouds
7:31AM - 41.0 °F - 39.2 °F - 3.0 miles - West 4.6 mph - Mostly Cloudy
7:32AM - 41.0 °F - 39.2 °F - 3.0 miles - West 4.6 mph - Mostly Cloudy
7:53AM - 42.1 °F - 39.9 °F - 3.0 miles - WSW 4.6 mph - Mostly Cloudy
8:53AM - 45.0 °F - 43.0 °F - 4.0 miles - West 4.6 mph - Mostly Cloudy
9:53AM - 51.1 °F - 46.0 °F - 6.0 miles - Calm Calm - Mostly Cloudy


The Heliport at Hermann Hospital had:

Time....Temp...Dewpoint....Visibility....Wind.......Conditions
6:55AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 5.0 miles - NW 6.9 mph - Clear
7:15AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 4.0 miles - NW 9.2 mph - Clear
7:35AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 3.0 miles - NW 9.2 mph - Clear
7:55AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 3.0 miles - WNW 8.1 mph - Clear
8:15AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 3.0 miles - NW 6.9 mph - Clear
8:35AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 3.0 miles - WNW 4.6 mph - Clear
8:55AM - 46.4 °F - 44.6 °F - 4.0 miles - NW 8.1 mph - Clear
9:15AM - 48.2 °F - 44.6 °F - 5.0 miles - NW 5.8 mph - Clear
9:35AM - 48.2 °F - 44.6 °F - 5.0 miles - NNW 6.9 mph - Clear
9:55AM - 50.0 °F - 44.6 °F - 6.0 miles - NW 5.8 mph - Clear

The weather turned out very nice, maybe a little warmer than some of the forecasts. Of course, I was still soaked in sweat.

1) 6:29 oops...I was a little late to the starting corral and only worked my way up to near the front at the very last minute.
2) 6:39 - 13:07
3) 6:30 - 19:36 so much for the plan
4) 6:41 - 26:17
5) 6:44 - 33:01
6) 6:33 - 39:34 this mile always end up faster
10K in 41:02
7) 6:43 - 46:17
8) 6:33 - 52:50 I spent much of this mile looking to my left to watch the elite half-marathoners flying up the other side of the street.
9) 6:39 - 59:30
10) 6:44 - 1:06:13 The half marathoners have turned around and the course is much lonelier and I'm able to get back on a more reasonable pace.
11) 6:44 - 1:12:58
12) 6:45 - 1:19:43
13) 6:44 - 1:26:26
Half marathon in 1:27:08 My pacing hasn't been very good and I'm a little faster than I planned, but I'm feeling very good.
14) 6:39 - 1:33:05
15) 6:47 - 1:39:52 Up the Westpark Overpass; I'm near RichardP but I've been running the whole race by myself. The volunteeers moved the elite fluids table over to the sidewalk just before RichardP arrived....he wasn't very happy about that!
16) 6:41 - 1:46:33
17) 6:32 - 1:53:05 RichardP and RichF (both over 50s) passed me going up Post Oak. I hung out with RIchF through this mile and I'm still feeling very good.
18) 6:39 - 1:59:44 I was amazed at how quickly the turn off San Felipe arrived; I'm feeling much better here than in previous years.
30K in 2:04:02
19) 6:44 - 2:06:29 I was looking for President GHW Bush and Barbara; in 13 races, I've never seen them.
20) 6:50 - 2:13:09 I think RichardP passed me this mile and I just let him go.
21) 6:54 - 2:20:13
22) 6:56 - 2:27:09 Somewhere near here RobW passed me like I was standing still.
23) 7:02 - 2:34:11
24) 7:20 - 2:41:31 The Allen Parkway Alps took their toll on me.
25) 7:19 - 2:48:51
26.22) 8:46 - 2:57:37 (7:12 pace) I saw a banner for 1/4 mile to go, but didn't see a mile marker for 26.

I'm not really sure why I slowed down so much the last six miles. My legs felt rubbery and I quit looking at my mile splits: a sure recipe for a slowdown. I'm a little disappointed about this part of the race. It wasn't smart to run by myself. I also carried two gels with me and never ate them. I was pretty stupid to give them a 26 mile free ride; they might have helped stave off the crash. On the positive side, I was very happy to place in my age group, especially after being shut out through the entire Fall Warmup Series.


I took a big risk by going with the the Saucony Fastwitch 3 shoes. I couldn't find a cheap pair of familiar shoes before the race. I got this crazy idea two weeks before the race to try out a much lighter shoe. The new shoes didn't arrive until Wednesday and my only pre-race run with them was a marathon-pace run on the track. The size 12½ was a little small for me. If I tried them on beforehand, I probably would have gone for a size 13. But I finished the race without any toenail damage, a marathon first!

RT Brett Gotcher Story and Brightroom Pictures

Running Times has an interesting interview with Brett Gotcher about his 2:10 marathon debut.


Is the "slideshow" function new?

brightroom event photography

Not Bad for #13

13th Houston Marathon; 20th Marathon.

568
Checkpoints
10k 0:41:02
Mile 9 - ? not sure why this one didn't register
Half 1:27:08
30k 2:04:02
Marathon 2:57:37
Start Time Offset 00:00:05
Pace 0:06:47
Overall 101
Gender 86
Div 3

I was able to maintain a 6:38 pace through the 30K but then slowed down quite a bit on Allen Parkway. It wasn't anything acute, just rubbery legs. The day was perfect; no excuses. I just couldn't pull it off.



Finish line picture by JohnA

The Calm before the Storm

I'm going to try using a little lighter shoe this time. The Saucony Fastwitch 3 is 8¾ ounces for my size 12½, about 2 ounces lighter than the Saucony Tangents I used for Houston '09 and '08, and a whopping 4 ounces less than the Nike Zoom Elites I've been using.

The weather seems to be following the forecasts. Some early morning fog is now expected; that's the biggest today. I'm going to wear my sunglasses, so I might have some trouble seeing early in the race. Today's NWS discussion highlights the fog:

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER TEXAS AND THIS FEATURE IS ALSO PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR BY THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY DROP AND LIFT WITH THE UPPER LOW DECREASES. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WITH WET GROUND...FEEL AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE NICEST DAYS THIS AREA HAS HAD SINCE MID-DECEMBER.


Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS still projects 40°F at the start and 51°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the upper 30s to 40. No change from yesterday; still very nice for running. They now have a WNW wind at 2 mph to a WNW wind at 5 mph and predict more clouds with sky cover at 67% to 46%.


The 84-hour model now includes marathon morning. This model follows along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the short range models are available now. They show temperatures a little warmer and winds from the northwest.




The Weather Channel now has hourly details for Marathon Sunday. There's very little change from yesterday's forecast:

7 am
Clear, 43°F feels like 41°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from W at 4 mph
sunrise Sunrise 7:17 am
8 am
Sunny, 44°F feels like 42°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 4 mph
9 am
Sunny, 47°F feels like 45°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 4 mph
10 am
Sunny, 51°F feels like 49°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 5 mph
11 am
Sunny, 54°F feels like 53°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 5 mph

AccuWeather now has hourly details for marathon morning. They predict a little warmer conditions:

Sunday, Jan 17
7AM
43°F, RealFeel® 44°F, Dewpoint 39°F
Winds WNW at 2 mph
Partly sunny
8AM
44°F, RealFeel® 47°F, Dewpoint 39°F
Winds WNW at 2 mph
Partly sunny
9AM
49°F, RealFeel® 54°F, Dewpoint 42°F
Winds WNW at 2 mph
Partly sunny
10AM
54°F, RealFeel® 61°F, Dewpoint 44°F
Winds WNW at 3 mph
Partly sunny
11AM
57°F, RealFeel® 64°F, Dewpoint 42°F
Winds W at 5 mph
Partly sunny

I couldn't resist taking a picture of this Watermill Express poster with all of the Tornado runners.

Expo Time

The Expo has already started so Marathon Weekend has officially arrived. Here's an interesting article about Shalane Flanagan running her first half-marathon Sunday.

The forecast for rain on the coast were right. I have almost 3¼ inches in the rain gauge. It looks like we'll see a cool Sunday morning with the sun warming things up during the race and little problems from the wind. There's not much on today's NWS discussion:

FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD KEEP PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN GOING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY. FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS NICE WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 40°F at the start and 51°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the upper 30s to 40. Not much of a change from yesterday; still very nice for running. They have a NW wind at 3 mph to a WNW wind at 5 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover at 15% to 20%.


The 84-hour model now includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the short range models are available now. They show temperatures a little warmer and winds from the northwest.




The Weather Channel now has hourly details for Marathon Sunday. They show:

7 am
Clear, 42°F feels like 40°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 4 mph
sunrise Sunrise 7:17 am
8 am
Sunny, 44°F feels like 42°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from WNW at 4 mph
9 am
Sunny, 47°F feels like 45°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from W at 4 mph
10 am
Sunny, 51°F feels like 50°F, 0% chance of rain, winds from W at 4 mph


AccuWeather now has hourly details for marathon morning. They predict a little warmer conditions:

Sunday, Jan 17
7AM
43°F, RealFeel® 45°F, Dewpoint 41°F
Winds WNW at 2 mph
Partly sunny
8AM
45°F, RealFeel® 47°F, Dewpoint 39°F
Winds W at 3 mph
Partly sunny
9AM
50°F, RealFeel® 54°F, Dewpoint 41°F
Winds WSW at 4 mph
Partly sunny
10AM
54°F, RealFeel® 59°F, Dewpoint 41°F
Winds WSW at 5 mph
Partly sunny
11AM
56°F, RealFeel® 61°F, Dewpoint 40°F
Winds WSW at 6 mph
Partly sunny

Last Real Training Run and the M-3 Forecasts

I ran my traditional "goal marathon pace run on the track" last night. Everything went well, although I ended up running a little faster than I wanted. We'll see how it all works out.

The forecasts remain amazingly consistent (and consistently favorable), but there's been a slight warming trend. Today's NWS discussion:

THE MAIN FORECAST DETAILS TO IRON OUT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GULF WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP A MESO LOW OR SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE. AT THE SAME TIME ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS UP THROUGH S TX AND BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT NE OVER S TX AND THE TX GULF COAST. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF FRI. THE GFS CONTINUES A TREND OF KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP OFF THE COAST IN THE GULF. THE FORECAST WILL GO MORE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH NOT ONLY KEEPS PRECIP IN THE GULF BUT ALSO HAS WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER TX DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION. FLOODING STILL SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT MOISTURE MAY NOT QUITE BE ENOUGH WITH PRECIP WATER
AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT INTO LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP THAT LINGERS OVER SE TX.

STRONG EAST WINDS ON FRI STILL SHOULD ELEVATE TIDES A GOOD 1-2 FEET BUT OVERALL TIDE LEVELS MAY NOT BE QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. SHOULD WINDS BECOME ENHANCED WITH A MORE INTENSE SFC LOW...TIDE LEVELS MAY BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. THIS STILL BEARS WATCHING AND STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR COASTAL FLOODING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE TUE/WED NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 41°F at the start and 52°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the upper 30s to 40. That's warmer, but still very nice for running. They have a NNW wind at 5 mph to a SW wind at 2 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover at 15% to 22%.


The 84-hour model now includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 42°F and winds down to 7mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 10%
Wind: NW 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 87%
Clouds early/Clearing late


For Sunday they show:
High 63°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WSW 4 mph
Max. Humidity: 74%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Mostly Sunny


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday their detailed forecasts. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 36 °F
Winds WNW at 10 mph with gusts to 17 mph
Clear

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 62°F RealFeel®: 64°F
Winds E at 7 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Partly sunny and warmer

The M-4 Forecasts

When will the low pressure area depart? If it leaves too late, we'll have strong north winds and the chance of rain Marathon morning. If it leaves too early, we could see warmer temperatures and more humidity and possibly strong Gulf winds. Despite this uncertainty, the forecasts have been surprisingly consistent (and consistently favorable). Today's NWS discussion:

YESTERDAY CONDITIONS WARMED UP NICELY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS SE TX. IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S ONCE MORE BUT THIS WILL LARGELY HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OLD MEXICO AND IS PUSHING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND S TX THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW FOR SE TX WILL BE INCREASED LOW/MID CLOUD COVER BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR DECENT HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN TO THE SE WHICH WILL AID HEATING. THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SWINGS OFF TO THE NE OVER TX AS THE NEXT DEVELOPING TROUGH DIGS OVER THE DESERT SW AND NW MEXICO. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW THIS NEXT TROUGH BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. A STRONG JET STREAK SHOULD PUNCH INTO THE BACK OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO DROP SOUTHWARD. THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW SHOULD TAKE SHAPE THU NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF C MEXICO INTO S TX. THU AND THU NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THERE MAY BE SOME ISO THUNDERSTORMS BUT SUSPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS. ONCE AGAIN THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE MODELS WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL LOW THAT DEVELOPS FRI MORNING. THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS COASTAL LOW EVOLVES ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN BUT SUSPECT THAT THERE MAY IN FACT BE MULTIPLE SFC LOWS DEPENDING ON WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE GULF. REGARDLESS...THERE SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE UPPER TX COAST WHICH PERSIST FOR A GOOD 12 TO 24 HRS. ELEVATED TIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE SO COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY. THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD TRACK EAST ACROSS THE N GULF INTO THE MISS RIVER DELTA LATE SATURDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...GENERALLY STILL 1 TO 3 INCHES... WILL FALL ON FRI FOR SE TX. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WERE TRIMMED DOWN SOME FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SE TX BUT STILL KEPT 80 POPS FOR WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3`S OF SE TX. AT THIS TIME IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA CAN HANDLE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH OUT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST A LITTLE BE BEHIND THE SFC LOW BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. POPS WERE TRIMMED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF WHEN PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

SUN AND MON NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE DRY AND COULD BE A TAD WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS HAS TRENDED WARMER SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS MAINLY DUE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SW ESPECIALLY AT 850MB. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RETURN MON/TUE NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WITH WARM ADVECTION. SE TX MAY HAVE 3 DAYS IN A ROW OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MON/TUE/WED.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 41°F at the start and 50°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the 30s. That's warmer, but still very nice for running. They have a WNW wind at 6 mph to a W wind at 7 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover at 20%.


The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 41°F and winds at 14mph in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 50%
Wind: NW 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 87%
Showers


For Sunday they show:
High 62°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WSW 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 74%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Sunny


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday their detailed forecasts. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 37 °F
Winds W at 9 mph with gusts to 16 mph
Mainly clear

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 60°F RealFeel®: 61°F
Winds SSW at 8 mph with gusts to 16 mph
Partly sunny

M-5 2010 Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

The big weather story remains a gradual warm-up as air from the Gulf returns. Then a low pressure area developing in the Western Gulf causing heavy rain Wednesday to Friday, with strong north winds blowing in colder air Friday and Saturday. The big question right now is when the North winds start decreasing. A strong North wind can make the trip up Post Oak very difficult. Today's NWS discussion:

IT IS NOT QUITE AS COLD HAS IT HAD BEEN THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS SE TX WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW FREEZING. STILL THIS IS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. WEAK SFC RIDGE STILL OVER THE UPPER TX COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OFF TO THE NE OF SE TX. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND THIS WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SPLIT JET UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER EXCEPT FOR CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT THU AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NOR MEXICO WITH A FAIRLY POTENT JET STREAK AND VORTICITY MAX PUSHING INTO IT. THIS MAY CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO DROP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT SOME OF THE MODELS EXPECT. AT THIS TIME...THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THU WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES JUST OFF THE COASTAL BEND. THE 00Z GFS HAS THIS COASTAL LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND MAY BE DUE TO IT KEYING IN ON CONVECTION. STILL...DIFFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS THU AND THU NIGHT. INSTABILITY MAY BE HARD TO COME BY FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE VERTICAL MOTIONS. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF REALLY HIT PRECIP HARD FOR 12Z FRI WHERE LIFT IS MAXED OUT AND THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN. DECIDED TO GO WITH 80 POPS FOR THE WHOLE AREA BUT THIS MAY BE A TAD HIGH FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SE TX. THE 12Z FRI TO 00Z SAT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND SOME COULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY FORCED CONVECTION. FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PROBLEM AS MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. PRECIP WATER VALUES ONLY TOP OUT AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE TENTHS SHY OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. ALL SAID AND DONE...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT COULD INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT. THIS OTHER THREAT TO MONITOR WILL BE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE COASTS OF GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES. STRONG EAST WINDS AND A LONG FETCH WILL BUILD UP WAVE ACTION AND TIDE LEVELS. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BUT LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND ITS INTENSITY.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO HAVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO S LA. REALLY SHOULD JUST SEE LIGHT RAIN AND COLD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SUN. SUN MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE FREEZING TEMPS. MAX TEMPS ON SUN AND MON WILL MODIFY NICELY BACK CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 38°F at the start and 47°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the 30s. That's nearly perfect for me. They have a NW wind at 7 mph to a NNW wind at 6 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover going from 32% to 29%.


The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 40°F and strong winds (17mph) in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 41°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
Clouds Early/Clearing Late


For Sunday they show:
High 59°F
Precip 0%
Wind: WNW 6 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Partly Cloudy


AccuWeather has Saturday night on their 5-day forecast. and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 34 °F
Winds NNW at 11 mph with gusts to 23 mph
Partly cloudy

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 58 °F
Warmer with sunshine and some clouds

Here's a story from Let'sRun/the Marathon on the elites that will be lining up Sunday.

Latest 2010 Houston Marathon Weather Forecasts

The forecasts are starting to get meaningful now. The big weather story remains a gradual warm-up into the week as air from the Gulf returns. Then a low pressure area developing in the Western Gulf causing heavy rain Thursday-Friday, with strong north winds blowing in colder air Saturday. The big question right now is when the North winds start decreasing. A strong North wind can make the trip up Post Oak very difficult. Today's NWS discussion mentions the Marathon:

TUE 00Z A COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL DROP SOUTH AND SHOULD REACH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND 15Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY AIR BUT OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME MAJOR CHANGES THIS WEEK. AFTER THIS RECORD SETTING ARCTIC COLD SNAP THE PATTERN WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SW U.S. AND NRN MEX WED-FRI. THE 850 RIDGE OVER CRP 12Z WED WILL SHIFT EAST LEADING TO INCREASINGLY STRONG SE-E FLOW. VIGOROUS MOISTURE RETURN THURSDAY WILL MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE DRAMATICALLY AND THE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN. SOME INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COASTAL WATERS MAY BE VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THEN EXPAND NORTH. THE STRONG FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED TIDES...SEE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE VERY SATURATED AND CAPABLE OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WITH SHRA/TSRA TRANSITIONING TO RA/SHRA SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH SIMILAR WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE COASTAL BEND REGION TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY...EVENTUALLY KICKING OUT A LOW ESE ARCING UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO LA. SLOWER UPPER MOVEMENT RESULTS IN A SURFACE LOW STILL OVER HARRIS COUNTY AT 12Z SATURDAY PER ECMWF WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF LA. WILL BE FOLLOWING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT GIVEN THE UPPER CUTOFF FLOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD THE MEX GUIDANCE BUT HAVE BIASED THESE WARMER ON MINS AND COOLER ON MAX TEMPS ON ACCOUNT OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. A MILD DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS SHOULD BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE BIG MARATHON ON SUNDAY WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WARMING TO NEAR 50 BY NOON.
Here's the NWS hourly projection for Marathon Sunday. The NWS projects 42°F at the start and 49°F at 10AM, with the dewpoint in the 30s. That's nearly perfect for me. They have a NNW wind from 8 to 7 mph and partly cloudy with sky cover going from 40% to 32%.


The 7.5-day model includes marathon morning. This model follows right along with the NWS hourly projection [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MRF model. shows a low of 37°F and strong winds (18mph) in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 39°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NW 9 mph
Max. Humidity: 82%
Clouds Early/Clearing Late


For Sunday they show:
High 57°F
Precip 10%
Wind: WNW 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Partly Cloudy


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 41 °F RealFeel®: 34 °F
Mostly cloudy

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 60 °F RealFeel®: 59 °F
Warmer with partial sunshine

Week 17: Taper, One Week to Go!

47 miles for the week (January 4th to 10th)

M - 8¼ miles recovery run at 8:15 pace, day off from work, 46°F at 3PM
Tu - 5¾ miles at 6:58 pace, 34°F at 4AM
W - 5¼ miles at 7:03 pace, 39°F at 4AM
Th - 5¾ miles recovery run at 8:46 pace, 62°F at 4AM and raining
F - missed, the cold I got last week developed into a bad sore throat and irritating cough. I took the day off to try and recover; plus it was the coldest day here in over 12 years.
Sa - 9 miles felt easy but it ended up being 6:40 pace, bright sun but only 41°F from 2:30PM
Su - 13 miles, average 7:13 pace, 42°F from 1PM

I felt the better early in the week than I have for months. But around Wednesday, the cold I picked up last week, turned to a very irritating cough. I took Friday off, and was pleasantly surprised at how easy Saturday's fast run felt.



The big weather story is a gradual warm-up into the week as air from the Gulf returns. Then a low pressure area could develop in the Western Gulf causing heavy rain Thursday-Friday, with strong north winds blowing in colder air Saturday. This could be another interesting week watching the forecast develop. Here's the NWS discussion:

UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT EAST AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND IMW WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY WITH A TROUGH SWINGING IN BENEATH THE RIDGE AND OVER TX BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO ONLY CLOUDS SHOULD BE AN ISSUE AND MAINLY OVER THE SW HALF. WARMUP TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THIS PATTERN WITH THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS BUT THE SWATH NORTH OF A CROCKETT TO CORRIGAN LINE. ANOTHER HIGH DROPS SOUTH AND REINFORCES THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE MOISTURE INCREASES AS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS LOW THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE THE SW US AND NW MEX BORDER THU-FRI. VERY IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN WITH GFS INDICATING PW OF 1.3" TO 1.5" COINCIDENT WITH TREMENDOUS LIFT SO HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE THU-FRI PERIOD. 00Z GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA...IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THEN COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES BUT THESE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE HARD TO HANG A HAT ON AS BEING THE SOLUTION. RAINS SHOULD BE COMING TO END SATURDAY MORNING WITH A MODERATELY DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA (NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).


The 7.5-day model now includes marathon morning. This model still shows temperature and dewpoints starting in the 30s and warming to the fifties, with a light north wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston]. The text version of the MOS model. shows a low of 42°F and strong winds in the morning.




The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 40°F
Precip 20%
Wind: NW 7 mph
Max. Humidity: 81%
Cloudy


For Sunday they show:
High 57°F
Precip 0%
Wind: NW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 72%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT
Mostly Cloudy


AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 39 °F RealFeel®: 34 °F
Low clouds

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 58 °F RealFeel®: 63 °F
Rather cloudy and warmer

The weather this weekend has been remarkable. We used to get cold days like this fairly often, but they've been very rare the last 15 years.

It's Cold Down Here!

2010 Houston Marathon Weather Update

The 16-day model now shows temperature and dewpoints starting in the 30s, and not increasing above 40 through the day with a light northwest wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 6 to 10 day forecast. They're lowering the predicted morning temperature, but still show a warm afternoon:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 35°F RealFeel®: 32°F
Partly Cloudy

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 63°F RealFeel®: 67°F
Mostly sunny and warmer



The Weather Channel tends to weight their long term predictions with seasonal averages. For Saturday night they show:
Overnight Low 45°F
Precip 60%
Wind: W 3 mph
Max. Humidity: 89%


For Sunday they show:
High 60°F
Precip 30%
Wind: WNW 8 mph
Max. Humidity: 74%
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM CT

Today, the weather buzz is this weekend's extreme cold. This morning's low was below 28°F down here on the coast.

Another Houston Marathon Weather Forecast Update

I'm working hard this year to limit myself to updating the long range forecast every couple of days.

The 16-day model is back to showing temperature and dewpoints starting in the 40s, and then increasing toward 60 through the day with an increasing southeast wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].



AccuWeather has Saturday night on their 6 to 10 day forecast. and Sunday on their 11 to 15 day forecast. They also increase the predicted temperatures:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 46°F RealFeel®: 44°F
Clear

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 66°F RealFeel®: 65°F
Sunshine and some clouds with a shower in the afternoon

The cold I caught last week has gotten worse. It's now mostly a scratchy sore throat and cough. I think it might be affecting my running now too. I'm also not sleeping as well with this irritating cough.

2010 Houston Marathon Weather Update

The 16-day model now shows temperature and dewpoints starting in the 30s, and temperature only increasing into the 40s and nearly no wind [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].



AccuWeather has Saturday night and Sunday on their 11 to 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 32°F RealFeel®: 33°F
Clear

Sunday, Jan 17
High: 61°F RealFeel®: 66°F
Brilliant Sunshine

Gambatte!

In Japan kids usually aren't wished "Good Luck" before a big test (or an important race). Rather, they're told "Gambatte", to persevere, never give up,....do your best. I don't ever want to finish a marathon looking like this, but I'd be honoured to reach a fraction of his Gambatte spirit:

Week 16: One Last Push Before Taper

91¼ miles for the week (December 28th to January 3rd)

M AM - 6¾ miles recovery run at 8:31 pace, Stars! 42°F at 4AM
M PM - missed
Tu - 13 miles at 7:05 pace, 51°F from 11AM
W - 14 miles at 7:24 pace, 53°F from 3PM; plus another 1¾ easy miles to recover car
Th - 11 miles easy at 8:19 pace, 51°F at 1PM
F - 13¼ miles with 5 miles at LT about 6:11 pace, overall average 6:58 pace, 53°F at 1PM with some sun
Sa - 11½ miles easy at 8:30 pace, some sun and 55°F at 11AM
Su - 20 miles, average 7:21 pace, 52°F from 2PM

After missing three runs last week, I decided to go to a two-week taper and put in some extra mileage this week. I got a nasty cold Thursday, but it didn't seem to hurt my running. The nice cool temperatures certainly helped!

The First Weather Forecast for the 2010 Houston Marathon

This post is outdated now.



01-13-10 Edit

Click here for the latest 2010 Houston Marathon weather updates.









The 16-day model now includes marathon morning. The model shows temperature and dewpoints in the middle 40s, but both increasing through the day [the graph is in UTC, six hours ahead of Houston].




AccuWeather has Saturday night on their 11 to 15 day forecast. They predict:

Saturday Night, Jan 16
Low: 46 °F RealFeel®: 47 °F
Partly cloudy